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VOYAGE DE LA HONTE

Une nouvelle vague populiste déferle sur l’Europe et son effet immédiat a été de repousser un navire de secours tentant de transporter plus de 600 migrants à son bord vers le vieux continent.

A peine au poste, le nouveau gouvernement populiste italien a rejeté l’arrivée de l’Aquarius de SOS Méditerranée malgré ses 123 mineurs non accompagnés et ses femmes enceintes. Après avoir également été refusé à Malte, le navire a été accepté par l'Espagne, où le flot migrant est quelques peu moindre que plus à l’est.

Les politiques anti-immigration du vice premier ministre Matteo Salvini n’ont pas tardé à limiter l'accès à la botte de l'Europe, dont les îles ont si souvent servi de lieu de premier refuge, parfois après un périple périlleux et sans merci. Rome refuse dorénavant d'accepter les migrants livrés par les organisations non gouverne-mentales. 

“Assez, avait laissé entendre Salvini, également ministre de l'intérieur, sauver des vies est un devoir mais transformer l’Italie en vaste camp de réfugiés ne l’est pas.” Le rejet se fait au début de la belle saison, qui multiplie les déplacements vers le continent et après la formation laborieuse d’un gouvernement italien.

Depuis le début de l’année les arrivées sont à la baisse mais représentent tout de même plus de 35000 migrants dans la région, dont environ 800 auraient perdu leur vie lors du trajet. Mais l'affaire de l'Aquarius était loin d'être réglée, l'Espagne ayant, après réflection, mis halte à son arrivée pour raison de sécurité, avant que l'Italie ne procure les navires nécessaires pour effectuer le trajet vers la péninsule ibérique.

Mais autant dire, après cette période d'incertitude en haute mer, que les réactions n'ont pas tardé à semer la division sur ce sujet toujours brûlant d'actualité de la Scandinavie, où les nationalistes mènent les sondages suédois, à la Méditerranée. "Enfin!" se régala le premier ministre nationaliste hongrois Viktor Orban, appuyé par un premier ministre slovaque en visite qui semblait partager son appui au geste italien. Quelques jours plus tard Orban rendait même l'aide aux migrants passible de poursuites pénales en Hongrie.

Condamnation cependant du président français, même si son pays gère difficilement la vague de migrants qui tente perpétuellement d'y transiger vers Calais.  Emmanuel Macron a critiqué l'attitude "cynique" et "irresponsable" de l'Italie, sur le dossier et a tenu à rappeler le droit maritime qui indique "qu'en cas de détresse, ce soit la côte la plus proche qui assume la responsabilité de l'accueil". Ces divisions entre voisins ont fait reporter au moins une visite ministrérielle, alors que Salvini en ajoutait en proposant un recensement des gens du voyage, les Roms, en prévision de renvois.

L'étincelle, les dires d'un porte parole de Macron qui déclara "il est inacceptable de jouer la politique avec les vies humaines, ce qui se passe en ce moment." Il ne faut pas penser que l'Hexagone ait le monopole de l'honneur sur la question migrante. Quelques jours plus tard Oxfam condamnait le traitement des enfants de réfugiés aux mains des autorités françaises, en pleine polémique de séparation des familles migrantes  aux Etats-Unis.

L’Italie, où d'importantes manifestations en faveur des migrants étalaient les divisions sur la question de l'immigration, n’est pas la seule à fermer les portes aux migrants dont l’arrivée en masse avait ébranlé le continent en 2015. La Slovénie vient également d’élire un gouvernement de droite dont le premier ministre est un autre allié de Viktor Orban.

Puis l'Autriche a annoncé un resserrement de ses politiques, notamment l'expulsion  de 60 imams, représentant selon le pouvoir "l'Islam politique" et la radicalisation, ainsi que la fermeture de sept mosquées. Des mesures jugées "racistes et islamophobes" par Ankara, avec qui les relations sont glaciales.

"Nous croyons qu'un axe de pays participants est nécessaire pour combattre la migration illégale," déclarait le chancellier Sebastian Kurtz. Des sanctions pourraient-elles viser l'Italie pour ce refus de l'Aquarius? Le dirigeant de l'agence onusienne Filippo Grandi a exigé que l'Europe corrige sa "honteuse" politique migratoire et "réforme son système d'asile de manière collective": "Comme Européen j'étais honteux qu'il y ait un bâteau là pendant des jours et personne ne voulait prendre ces gens."

Mais matière à sanctions? "On assiste à une montée en puissance des populismes en Europe au niveau électoral, et l’Europe est mise au pied du mur, elle n’a plus les moyens de sanctionner l’Italie, note Patrick Martin-Genier, spécialiste des questions internationales. Mais le [refoulement de l’Aquarius] est inadmissible, donc si l’Italie continue cette pratique, ça pourrait avoir des conséquences."

Pour l'heure la mobilisation pourrait devenir un exemple de ce genre de coopération pan-européenne. Le premier ministre espagnol Pedro Sanchez, nouveau à la tête de ce gouvernement socialiste qui a tout l'intention de porter le flambeau humanitaire, s'est dit "apprécier la coopération du président Macron" après sa proposition d'accueillir certains des passagers de l'Aquarius en France. "Voilà un exemple de coopération que l'Europe devrait suivre afin de répondre" à la crise migratoire.

L'incident hautement médiatisé a évolué sur fond d'augmentation des rescousses des navires espagnols, qui en deux jours sauvaient quelques 933 migrants additionnels sur un total de 68 embarcations. Cette recrudescence donne un aperçu troublant de l'ampleur que pourrait prendre cette vague migratoire cette année, alors que les boucliers populistes se lèvent. A la veille du conseil européen, Angela Merkel était pressée de trouver une solution à la crise migratoire qui tient toujours l'Europe depuis 2015. Celle-ci fait face à des pressions internes, en Bavière, qui a menacé d'exercer ses propres contrôles aux frontières.

ERDOGANISME EN TURQUIE?

Malgré l’élection la plus serrée depuis des années, le président turc Récep Tayyip Erdogan a su conserver son poste après 15 ans au pouvoir à la tête de la république kémaliste, d’abord comme premier ministre ensuite président, lui permettant de mettre à exécution ses projets de système présidentiel renforcé.

Pour son rival défait Muharrem Ince, le pays de près de 80 millions s’engage tout simplement dans la voie de l’hyper présidence, de la dictature même, faudrait-il alors parler de république erdoganienne? On semblait déjà s’y être engagé après la concentration des pouvoirs et les purges vécues depuis le putsch raté de 2016.

Depuis plus de 160 000 personnes on été emprisonnées alors que les médias sont tombés sous l’emprise du pouvoir. En veille de scrutin Reporters sans frontières parlait d’“unanisme” de manière à aboutir “à une campagne électorale totalement désé-quilibrée en faveur du pouvoir.”

L'OSCE a salué le taux de participation élevé de 88%, mais a également dénoncé l'absence "d'oppor-tunités égales" lors de l'élection. Pour l'UE les condition n'étaient également pas "équitables" et il est difficile de voir comment ceci va s'améliorer avec le nouveau mandat aux pouvoirs renforcés.

C’est à se demander aussi comment Ince a pu faire passer son message et rassembler des foules immenses à travers le pays. En fin de compte il aurait accumulé 31% des intentions de vote, fort honorable contre la machine bien huilée de l’AKP, mais pas assez pour forcer un second tour, Erdogan ayant rassemblé plus de la moitié du vote au premier tour.

À présent ce dernier compte bien mettre en œuvre son projet présidentiel, approuvé par 51% des électeurs lors d’un référendum l’an dernier. Le parlement déjà affaibli, le poste de premier ministre aboli, les changements constitutionnels prévoient de nouveaux pouvoirs prési-dentiels permettant au chef d’état de choisir ministres et autres responsables haut placés, d'intervenir au niveau judiciaire et d'imposer l’état d’urgence.

Des pouvoirs nécessaires selon lui pour vaincre la menace kurde et défendre l’économie, même si celle-ci s’est plutôt bien débrouillée au courant de son règne, moyennant une croissance de 2% depuis le tournant du siècle. Mais la grogne sociale ébranle le géant d’Orient, forçant Erdogan, devenu véritable "reis" avec son assermentation dans les prochains jours, à allier son parti religieux et conservateur avec la droite pour éviter toute surprise lors du scrutin.

“Il a réussi son pari en s’alliant avec le parti d’extrême droite MHP, ce qui prouve la droitisation complète de la société turque, à la fois sur le plan religieux et politique,” note le spécialiste Gauthier Rybinski à France24. Pourtant le dirigeant du MHP avait dans le passé traité Erdogan de dictateur.

Alors que le pays a vu ses relations avec l’Europe se détériorer “son message selon lequel la Turquie est menacée de toutes parts, qu’elle serait l’objet d’une haine internationale, c’est à dire la paranoïa qui fait que l’on se sent traqué et mal-aimé, lui a permis de cimenter son électorat.”

Pour Ince un chapitre plutôt noir de la république est en train de s’ouvrir. “Le nouveau régime qui débute aujourd’hui représente un danger pour la Turquie. Nous avons adopté la direction d’une dictature d’un seul homme.” D’autres politiciens ont été encore plus sévères avec le pouvoir, un représentant de l’opposition parlant de “régime fachiste” à la tête du pays.

“Mais les regimes fachistes ne remportent pas des élections avec 53%, estime Selin Sayek Boke, ils gagnent avec 90%, ceci montre que les valeurs progressives libérales sont encore soutenues et peuvent se faire entendre.” Une profonde division s'installe ainsi et se creuse aux croisements de l'Europe et de L'Asie.

Mais il faudra sans doute patienter pour l'opposition, la nouvelle constitution permettant à Erdogan de briguer un nouveau mandat en 2023, donc possiblement de rester au pouvoir jusqu’en 2028. "Erdogan n’est pas touché par le phénomène d’usure du pouvoir. S’il est vu à l’étranger comme un leader autocratique, sur le plan intérieur il continue d’être un « reis » adulé, estime Jana Jabbour de Sciences Po.

Son charisme, son paternalisme et son populisme attirent une grande partie de la population, notamment les franges musulmanes-conservatrices dans les régions rurales et l’Anatolie profonde." Par ailleurs  " le résultat du vote montre l’incapacité des partis d’opposition à convaincre l’opinion publique."

L’AKP et ses alliés ont obtenu le même score aux parlementaires, tenues le même jour, mais fait surprenant, le parti pro-kurde HDP s’en est tout de même tiré avec 67 sièges malgré le fait que son dirigeant Selahattin Demirtas faisait campagne depuis sa cellule de prison. Les nouveaux alliés d'Erdogan aimeraient qu'il y demeure, et que le président maintienne l'état d'urgence qu'il a promis de lever.

Alors que l'étau se resserre sur la société civile, notamment son aile libérale, des manifestations plus modestes ont affiché leur opposition au conservatisme du régime. Cette fin semaine des milliers ont notamment participé au défilé de la fierté gay malgré les interdictions municipales. Une résistance notable dans ce contexte.


MISSION DANGEREUSE

Il n’a pas fallu attendre longtemps avant que saute aux yeux la délicatesse de la nouvelle mission canadienne au Mali. Alors que les premiers éclaireurs  militaires posaient leurs bottes sur le sol au nord du pays afin de préparer la mission onusienne, 32 civils étaient tués lors d’une attaque au centre du pays.

L’incident ne démontrait pas seulement l’insécurité qui règne dans de larges sections sahariennes de ce pays mais la complexité des conflits entre les dunes. Alors que la région a connu sa part de violences djihadistes , la tuerie était cette fois intercommunautaire et attribuée à des chasseurs traditionnels dozo, membre de la communauté des dogons, contre des éleveurs peuls.

Ce genre d’incident serait à la hausse depuis les trois dernières années. Selon Abdoul Aziz Diallo, président de la principale association peule du Mali, “des gens habillés en dozo” ont encerclé un village, isolé les peuls et “froidement tué au moins 32 civils.”

Les autorités ont promis “des poursuites judiciaires... contre tous ceux qui seraient impliqués”, mais les incidents se multiplient souvent au nom de la lutte djihadiste. “Ce   n'est pas parce que l'on est peul qu’on est djihadiste,” se voit obligé de souligner Diallo. Ceux-ci, minoritaires dans plusieurs pays du Sénégal au Nigéria, sont majoritairement bien que pas exclusivement musulmans.

Le Canada se dit préoccupé par ce genre d’incident, notamment par l’implication présumée de militaires dans certaines exactions au Mali. Alors que les premiers soldats canadiens foulaient le sol pour préparer  une mission des Nations unies qui prévoit le déploiement d’hélicoptères militaires, le chef d’état major de la Défense, le général Jonathan Vance, mettait en garde que l’opération comportait sa part de risques.

“C’est une mission soutenue par l’ONU alors voyez-la comme une mission de l’ONU plutôt qu’une mission de maintien de la paix.” Car la paix est au mieux chancelante malgré la fuite du gros des éléments djihadistes après l’intervention française en 2013.

Les violences se poursuivent malgré un accord de paix signé en 2015. Plus de 40 attaques ont eu lieu ce printemps, alors que le pays prépare des élections présidentielles à la fin du mois. En juin des douzaines ont été blessés lors d’une manifestation à Bamako. Fin avril 40 Touaregs périssaient aux mains de djihadistes dans le nord.

En tout quelques 250 soldats canadiens doivent être en place d’ici août pour permettre à une demi douzaine d’hélicoptères, dont certains gros porteurs, d’opérer dans la région. Ce retour du Canada au sein des opérations de casques bleus se fait après plusieurs années d’absence sur la scène internationale et alors que les risques encourus soulèvent un débat important à Ottawa.

Plus de 170 casques  bleus ont péri au Mali depuis cinq ans au sein d’une mission qui compte 12000 soldats de 57 pays différents. “C’est une des tâches les plus complexes que nous ayons eu à accomplir,” résume le Lieut.-colonel Tom Murphy.

Mais voilà qui replace le Canada sur la carte alors que le nombre de soldats canadiens en mission à l’ONU atteint les niveaux les plus bas depuis l’âge d’or du pays dans ce domaine, 1956. Cependant le doute s'installe rapidement à la fois sur la diversité de l'ennemi, et la fidélité des alliés.

L'occident a condamné les représailles de forces maliennes contre des civils suivant l'attaque d'une base par des djihadistes. Et la semaine dernière l'Etat islamique se disait responsable d'un nouvel attentat contre une base du centre du pays.

Cette semaine un sommet africain se penchait notamment sur la force militaire du G5 au Sahel au Mali, visée par un nouvel attentat cette semaine. Le président malien Ibrahim Boubacar Keita notait alors "il est impossible de réussir la lutte contre le terrorisme si l'on en a pas les moyens," ajoutant "comment voulez-vous donner un mandat de maintien de la paix dans une zone qui n'est pas en paix?"

IT'S (TRADE) WAR

As leaders of the G7 met in Quebec’s Charlevoix region this week there wasn’t the usual sense of all around chumminess of the privileged few of past summits, so soon after the first salvo in a trade war between the US, EU and Canada which was long known to be looming.

France's finance minister set the tone referring to the summit in fact as being a G6 plus one, using the sort of distinction which eventually saw Russia turfed from what used to be the G8.

The host in particular had turned its usual forced smile to a frown just days before, chiding the US for accusing Canada of representing a security threat on trade after so many common military battles fought over the last century and a half.

In an attempt to lighten the mood Trudeau and Trump traded a few friendly barbs at the G7, days after Canada had indicated it would retaliate against US steel and aluminum tariffs with Ottawa’s most punitive trade counter-measures against its neighbor in the postwar era.

The cold exchanges came as both countries attempted to pursue changes to NAFTA and during a US congressional election year a president under pressure was determined to play to his blue collar base.

President Trump said he was considering splitting NAFTA because he thought Mexico and Canada were very different countries, a suggestion promptly rejected by Trudeau. In the US there were few signs the hawkish posture was causing much damage, at least yet, as early June numbers showed continuing economic growth and the lowest unemployment in 18 years as well as a stock market which recovered from the fall’s slip.

But the latter wasn’t without its warning signs according to observers. Canada meanwhile registered a larger than usual $3.4 billion trade surplus with the US in April, as Washington accused Canada and others of taking advantage of the US on trade.

But even as America considered possible new trade measures against Canada, possibly on agriculture, the White House's economic advisor described the tensions as a family quarrel. Certainly the G7 itself appeared to be a tad dysfunctional as countries were gearing up for the possibly of a 6+1 agreement, leaving out a US president who was to shorten his G7 visit to attend the Korean summit.

Around the G7 table the US, which is less dependent on trade than others due to its huge domestic market, would stand isolated on trade, as it has on other files such as Iran, climate change and Jerusalem.

The president's suggestion Russia be again invited to the gathering, as the Russia collusion investigation produced a new indictment, was particularly poorly received. When G7 finance ministers met in Whistler before the formal leaders meeting, all but one had signed on to signalling "unanimous concern and disappointment" with Washing-ton, as it undermined "open trade and confidence in the global economy."

Critics questioned such a hard American stance with its closest allies, threatening economic outlooks, all the while the US was making overtures to foes such as Russia and North Korea. "The rules-based international order is being challenged, quite surprisingly not by the usual suspects, but by its main architect and guarantor, the US," said European Council president Donald Tusk.  Was the US president keeping his friends closer?


TOURMENTE A MANAGUA

Deux ans à peine après une réélection facile, le président du Nicaragua, l’ancien rebelle, est à la tête d’un pays soulevé par la révolte.

Celle-ci a débuté en avril après l’annonce de réformes du régime de pension du gouvernement, un effort de réduction du déficit qui aurait augmenté les contributions salariales tout en diminuant les paiements, ce qui n’a pas tardé à gâter l’ordre public.

Des milliers ont pris la rue, parfois dans la violence, mais de nombreux groupes de droits de l’homme accusent les agents de l’ordre d’usage excessif de la force, qui selon eux serait responsable de la mort de plus de 125 personnes.

Ce genre de force mortelle “ne peut être utilisée pour rétablir l’ordre public”, martèle la Commission interaméricaine des droits de l’homme. Selon elle presque 1000 personnes auraient également été blessées lors des accrochements et des centaines d’autres, notam-ment des élèves et des jeunes militants, auraient été arrêtés.

Daniel Ortega a depuis fait machine arrière sur la réforme, mais le mal ayant été fait, les manifestations se poursuivent après une légère trêve rendue possible par l'intervention de l'église catholique.

Les dirigeants étudiants se disaient ouverts au dialogue pourvu qu’il aboutisse au départ du président septuagénaire en poste depuis 2007 et précédemment entre 1979 et 1990. “Vous savez ce qu’on a vécu, a déclaré Lesther Aleman, il ne s’agit pas de dialogue mais de négociation en vue de votre départ.”

Alors que les troupes regagnaient leurs casernes en un premier temps les étudiants n’excluaient pas un mouvement de bloquage national si les violences policières reprenaient ou les pourparlers tombaient au point mort.

“Le risque est que cela débouche sur une guerre” déclara Aleman. Les violences ont repris la semaine dernière, avec une bien triste tournure, alors que se multipliaient les appels à la tenue d'élections anticipées.

Amnistie Inter-nationale accuse le pouvoir de s'allier avec des groupes paramilitaires pour mater violemment la révolte étudiante. Cette accusation prend tout son poids en ce 50ème anniversaire des événements de 1968 au Mexique, où la répression à l'époque s'est soldée par la morts de centaines de jeunes étudiants manifestants.

Amnistie estime que ce genre d'implication au Nicaragua se ferait forcément avec l'aval d'Ortega, et exige une enquête internationale sur les nombreuses morts lors des incidents. Ortega de son côté accuse des criminels de profiter des manifestations pour causer des violences.

Le milieu des affaires quant à lui a fait écho des appels de L'Organisation des Etats d'Amérique en faveur d'un vote anticipé "étant donné l'étendue de la crise et afin d'éviter une situation encore plus tragique." L'Eglise tentait à nouveau cette semaine de relancer le dialogue.

ESPOIRS EN ETHIOPIE

Lieu de conflit, de sécheresse, de point de départ de migrants ou de pirates des temps modernes, les titres sont rarement tendres envers la corne d’Afrique. Pourtant depuis un certain temps il y a lieu de se réjouir des développements en Éthiopie notamment, depuis le changement récent de chef de gouvernement.

Pays pourtant tout récemment terrassé par la sécheresse et la famine puis miné par les tensions impliquant la minorité des Oromos, ce pays de 102 millions d’habitants était hier encore sujet aux tensions avec son voisin érythréen, partie du territoire déchirée lors de son indépendance en 1993 et ennemi de combat depuis 20 ans.

Puis en début d’année le pouvoir libérait les prisonniers politiques, un geste prometteur selon Amnistie Internationale après une “ère de répression sanglante en Éthiopie”, avant que le premier ministre Hailemariam Desalegn n’annonce son départ, afin de faciliter les réformes. Ceci semble avoir changé la donne malgré le scepticisme initial de l'opposition.

Au début du printemps l’assermentation d’Abiye Ahmed, en plein état d’urgence,  se faisait sous la bannière du changement historique, promettant “un transfert du pouvoir paisible” dans ce pays dont l’économie est la plus dynamique de la région.

Celui-ci est un oromo, membre d'un groupe majoritaire qui jusque là n’avais jamais été représenté au poste. Le nouveau dirigeant a lancé en premier lieu  un message d’unité bien accueilli après des années de manifestations de groupes se sentant marginalisés. Une page semblait avoir été tournée.

La paix interne ferait davantage gonfler les affaires, prises pour cible par les manifestants qui voulaient s’en prendre au pouvoir. Puis place à la paix externe? C’est ce gouvernement qui, après tant d’années de rejet, acceptait enfin les termes de la paix avec l’Érythrée, ce conflit notamment sur la démarcation de la frontière responsable d’avoir fait 80000 victimes.

Après le changement de premier ministre, le rétablissement d’internet et la levée de l’état d’urgence, c’est un sirocco puissant qui semblait balayer le deuxième pays le plus peuplé du continent.  “Le gouvernement éthiopien a décidé de mettre en œuvre pleinement l’accord d’Alger de la commission sur la démarcation de la frontière” signé en 2000 entre les deux pays, déclarait la coalition au pouvoir.

De plus l’état, qui a longtemps favorisé une économie planifiée à la chinoise, annonçait un pas vers le privé en ouvrant au capital plusieurs grandes compagnies publiques, dont Ethiopian airlines. Toutefois la majorité des parts sera détenue par le gouvernement tandis que le reste sera mis sur le marché. Selon Éloi Ficquet de l’école des hautes études en sciences sociales “la situation économique du pays reste fragile, fortement dépendante des acteurs, des investisseurs extérieurs.

Aller vers l’apaisement peut redonner confiance et jouer un effet positif sur l’économie.” Amélioration, certes, mais pour certains le salut demeure ailleurs. Ce fait a été tragiquement rappelé lorsque 46 migrants éthiopiens ont perdu la vie lors du naufrage de leur embarcation, qui se dirigeait vers le Yemen. Puis les manifestations ne sont pas  terminées partout. La communauté frontalière de Bemba protestant son transfert au pays voisin, une conséquence de l'entente entre Ethiopie et Erythrée. Cette semaine un attentat à la grenade lors d'un rassemblement rappelait l'état encore fragile du pays, et de cette région d'Afrique.

PRESS WOES

These aren't easy times for journalism. The industry, sometimes concentrated in very few hands,  is into its second decade of being decimated by the advent of the internet, which has slashed the traditional ad revenues of newspapers, often at the mercy of hedge funds, but has also affected everything from radio to TV news.

The rise of new online outlets with more limited means has come amid a rise of fake news incidents rocking Western countries and reducing trust in a profession under fire, sometimes literally. While the number of journalists killed across the world was slightly down last year, to anywhere from 65 to 81, the dangers faced by reporters, producers, photographers, cameramen and others of the trade in the field are as real as ever.

This was never more evident than during an Afghan terror attack in Kabul which felled 10 journalists covering the site of a blast, the deadliest day against the media in that country since the days of the Taleban. Globally it was the worst single incident for the press since 31 reporters and photographers were killed in the southern Philippines in 2009.

And the  bloodshed needn’t come from half a world away. The horror stories of covering Mexico’s drug war are now well documented. Excelsior reporter Hector Antonio recently became the sixth journalist killed in that country this year alone.

The Committee to Protect Journalists said at least 42 met the same fate in Mexico last year. The threat can be just as real in advanced economies, with some 200 Italian reporters remaining under police protection for their investigations into the Mafia.

Journalists critical of the Kremlin have also over the years found themselves facing very real danger. This was recently illustrated when a Russian reporter in Ukraine faked his own murder so authorities could catch those plotting his death.

The experienced war reporter left Russia after receiving threats on social media. Ukrainian officials said the sting enabled them to arrest an assassin paid $40,000 to kill him and out his Russian client. Moscow called the affair propaganda. Arkady Babchenko later apologized to his wife for faking his death and thanked all those who had mourned him.

This is what it’s come to. And when a life isn't on the line intimidation is on the rise. Journalists living precarious careers having to do more with less while serving a more skeptical audience face bouts of outright violence. Vice News staff members used to the grittier side of journalism got a taste of this when an anti immigrant group stormed into their Montreal newsroom to signal their displeasure with a recent report.

Sometimes the intimidation is institutional, such as Cambodia’s recent media crackdown in a tense electoral year, the arrest of reporters covering the exodus of Rohingya in Myanmar and the jailing of an Algerian blogger for posting an interview. But sometimes the violence is less obvious though no less of an affront on the profession.

Last year a colloquium at UNESCO considered journalists under fire in various forms the "challenge of our time", noting reporters faced challenges varying from the rise of identity politics to the change of business models and the rise of social media and fake news. "Finding ways through these issues is of great importance not only for media professionals," experts agreed, "but also for societies in general, and governments in particular, since modern societies cannot function and develop without free, independent and professional journalism, based on principles such as fact checking, reflecting a plurality of informed opinions, protecting the confidentiality of media sources, and ensuring journalists’ safety."

The issue of fake news, a term which has emerged under the current US presidency, has been a concern to governments the world over as they struggle to avoid the sort of  election meddling the world's most powerful nation saw in 2016. Since then countries from Malaysia, which criminalized fake news, to Germany, which created a law that fines media companies not taking down fake posts, have taken action.

But planned legislation in France against "manipulation of information" faced criticism this week it would be ineffective and could be used to silence critics. Guidance has even come from above, Pope Francis in January calling on the faithful to rediscover the "dignity of journalism" while reminding those in the media to be "truthful and opposed to falsehoods, rhetorical slogans and sensational headlines," not always the easiest rule to abide by in the tabloid world.

While many seek to combat the scourge of fake news, few countries have gone as far as Sweden, which in an pamphlet called If crisis or war comes distributed to its 5 million households contains information on everything from terror attacks and global warning, including a section on fake news.

"What is most important is that you have water, food and warmth and are able to obtain information from the  authorities and the media," it says, and in special section warns about being "on the lookout for false information." It notes states and organisations are already using misleading information "in order to try and influence our values and how we act." The best protection against this it says "is to critically appraise the source" distinguishing between factual info and opinion and whether the source is trustworthy.

Being there in times of crisis, that's quite the noble work and continuing responsibility of the news world. It is one making the profession still worth defending and working in despite the risks, this growing list of badges or honour that trade safety for danger and wealth for precariousness. Critics and journalist associations condemned the sting orchestrated by Babchenko and Ukraine for being misleading.

Had he not undermined the credibility of the media and played into his harshest critics' narrative? His response illustrated the struggles of the profession. "Dear UK press (expletive)," he wrote. "If you want to be of use, give me a British passport and protection, Then you can teach me how to save my family."

INSURGENCY IN MOZAMBIQUE

Despite having a Kalashnikov in its flag, Mozambique isn’t neces-sarily known for its explosive insurgency. On the African continent groups such as Al Shabbab have spread violence in the northeast while Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb has left its terrible mark in the North and Boko Haram in the West.

Few had heard of Ahlu Sunnah wal Jamaa, referred to simply as Al Shabbab by the now terrified locals, until recent bloody attacks in Cabo Delgado province of the Eastern African nation facing Madagascar.

Determined to sow fear, members of the group beheaded a dozen victims including children in the village of Monjane in the worst attack in the country in recent memory, a reminder of its recently active presence in Mozambique. The group wants to impose sharia law, ban alcohol and target crosses in this largely Christian country.

“They targeted the chief as he had been providing information to the police about the location of Al-Shabbab in the forests,” told AFP one survivor. But the actual motives are hard to determine as the group has yet to make public declarations. It is however suspected of thriving from the sale of timber.

The Islamist group has been active since last fall, especially in the predominantly Muslim North of the country, where it first targeted police. In ways reminiscent of Nigeria's Boko Haram, the group was founded four years ago as a religious sect tied to a Kenyan leader who was killed in 2012 before evolving into a guerilla group.

Authorities have been cracking down on terrorism as of late, shutting and even tearing down mosques believed by to be owned by Islamist groups and passing a bill punishing acts of terrorism for up to 24 years.

The country is still recovering from the lingering effects of its 16-year civil war, which ended a quarter century ago, and remains overwhelmingly poor despite the discovery of gas fields off its northern coast in 2011, a region now under threat. By some accounts reserves there could supply enough energy to power France, Germany, Italy and Britain for over 20 years.

Much of Mozambique's development can be found in the predominantly Christian South, and Maputo. In a country with endemic corruption and unequal wealth distribution, the government will have to address the root social causes of the unrest tells AP academic Liazzat Bonate.

"They have to work hard now. They have to show local populations that they're being more supportive and undcrstanding" and not just quell the rebellion harshly. As for the flag, Mozambique has sought to change it in the past, if only to remove the gun, which represents the county’s struggle for independence, but a new one has yet to be adopted despite over 100 changes  proposed. Observers hope this is not an indication of further internal strife ahead.


SACRÉS KNIGHTS

En Amérique du Nord les partisans sportifs de clubs d’expansion sont aux anges et les supporters de longue date parfois furieux du succès des nouveaux clubs de la scène professionnelle, qu’il s’agisse de disciplines sur glace ou sur gazon.

Il y a quelques années les Redblacks effectuaient une n premier coup d’éclat en se rendant en Coupe Grey des leur seconde saison?

Coup de bol dans une ligue de football canadienne de tous les surprises? L’année suivante ils remportaient le gros lot, ce que n’avait pu accomplir l’incarnation précédente du club de football d’Ottawa, qui n’avait pas participé à l’après saison lors de ses quatre années d’existence.

L’an dernier c’était au Atlanta FC de participer aux séries à leur première saison en Major league soccer. Ils mènent cette année le palmarès dans la division est. Mais la MLS fait peut-être exception, DC United ayant brillé à ses premières saisons.

Sports secondaires direz-vous? Du moins avant l’arrivée d’une équipe de hockey dans le désert, une autre, après. Elle qui avait déjà fait l’objet de discussions de relicalisation. Voilà plusieurs fois que l’on relicalise, sans véritable expansion.

Or lorsque celle-ci a trouvé pignon sur rue à Vegas, une distraction parmi d’autres dans la ville de tous les vices, qui ne connaissait pas de club professionnel, le spectacle ne s’est pas limite à l’avant match. Les Vegas Knights n’ont pas tardé à prendre le chemin de la finale.

FEARING WAR

With violent protest raging at its Gaza border, rockets being fired from Iran-backed forces in Syria and unrest over the US decision to open its embassy in Jerusalem, these are hardly peaceful days in the Holy Land as Israel marks the 70th anniversary of its creation.

Add to that Iran’s threat to restart its nuclear program, giving life to its hardliners, and the Israeli prime minister’s fight for his political life amid a corruption investigation, and the extent of the chaos nears biblical proportions. Fears of a hot war with Iran in the region, already dealing with a Cold War between Iran and Saudi Arabia and hot war in Yemen, could bring us there some fear.

The exchange of fire further complicated relations between Israel and Syria, which the Jewish state is pressuring to purge its Iranian allies from its territory. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has been warning world leaders that tit for tat strikes in Syria could spark a regional conflict. And any threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, so crucial to the movement of oil, could rise prices further and make the crisis global and economic.

Nearly 40 years since the Islamic revolution (Page 2) (From Cover) - severed ties between Iran and Israel, the Syrian conflict has given way to a first direct clash between the two, first when Israeli defenses downed an Iranian drone carrying explosives into Israel in February, provoking a barrage of air strikes against Iranian positions in Syria, then with the aerial response to the rocket fire.

Lebanon's Hezbollah, supported by Iran, said the event opened up "a new phase" in the conflict. Iran, which has given Europe two months to save the nuclear deal preventing it from restarting its program - a move which could up the ante on Saudi Arabia to launch its own program -, has used proxies and allies in the countries of the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza, to grow its influence, though new sanctions against Iran by the United States could affect its ability to finance these regional actors, especially in Syria where it is seeking to widen its presence as the dust settles in the conflict after it assisted Damascus in ousting ISIS.

"Iran is actually not as strong as we think," Bassel Salloukh of the Lebanese University of Beirut tells the New York Times. "Its economy is quite weak, it is surrounded, so it has to project power in order to protect itself and that strategy has work very well so they are duplicating it elsewhere." Possible new sanctions could bite available funds, but the revolutionary guard faction in Tehran is committed to remain on the offensive.

The Islamic republic's agenda is a major concern for Israel, says Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia Group. "Iran wants to build infrastructure in Syria. Israel is dead set against that. So It's a real witches' brew." Historically Iran has been the main funding force behind Hamas, which rules Gaza, but the two have had a falling out since the Arab revolutions and the start of the Syrian civil war. Last year however Iran signaled its intention to extend funding for the group, while Israel has uncovered evidence funds were being circulated from Hamas' Hebron offices in the West Bank.

Israel has claimed much of this funding is behind the violent clashes at the Gaza border, which have raged on from a protest movement to end the blockade of the thin, empoverished and overpopulated strip by the Mediterranean. The violence, which culminated with the opening of the American embassy this week, has claimed nearly 100 lives and hundreds of injuries.

The clashes have occurred as Palestinians mark the 70th anniversary of the Nakbah, the exodus which followed Israel’s Declaration of Independence, sparking the Arab-Israeli war. This week's was the worst violence since the 2014 Gaza war, sparking outrage from world capitals and observer groups.  "This is another horrific example of the Israeli military using excessive force and live ammunition in a totally deplorable way," protested Amnesty International.

"This is a violation of international standards, in some instances committing what appear to be wilful killings constituting war crimes." Palestinian officials echoed the charges of war crimes at the UN amid calls for an international investigation into this week's violent actions at the border. NATO ally Turkey, which recalled its ambassador, said this week the controversial opening of the embassy in Jerusalem, which only two other countries have promised to emulate, has made the US lose its leadership role in the peace process, therefore grinding it to a halt.

Palestinian leader Abbas is refusing to engage in American led peace initiatives for the time being, but the White House says it is more confident both sides stand to gain by reaching peace, after decades of unfruitful peace initiatives. On this also the US seems isolated. Dealing with threats to its border, Iranian rocket fire and pushing for peace at the same time would be daunting for any Israeli leader, in addition this one is under investigation for corruption.

Israeli police have recom-mended Netanyahu in fact be indicted for bribery, fraud and breach of trust in two cases and suspected corruption in another. The Gaza troubles may be a diplomatic crisis right now but Iran is the real danger threatening Israel says Ryan Bohl of Stratfor. "A Gazan crisis is no longer the preeminent defense chal-lenge" to Israel, he says. "The greater concern is Iran, and what it might do as it builds its influence" in the region.

SEEKING PEACE

Walking out of their historic summit last week the leaders of the Koreas promised complete denuclearization and an end to the war opposing them for over six decades, a refreshing state of affairs after harrowing previous months involving firy rhetoric and flying rockets. Had the Olympic diplomacy worked its magic?

Had the great leader's visiting sister opened once unchar-tered waters or had Trump's take no prisoners approach coerced Pyongyang into submission? Or is this just another lull before the next crisis on a peninsula still technically at war?

The signs were encouraging, the smiles perhaps genuine, but what was really new was the state of the north’s nuclear infrastructure.

By some accounts a recent nuclear test had triggered an earthquake strong enough to collapse the regime’s main testing facility beyond repair, accompli-shing what decades of sanctions could not in a single swoop. A Chinese study recently found the damage at the Punggye-ri complex, 100 miles from the Chinese border, was so considerable it was unsafe to conduct future tests there.

“North Korea’s past tests have altered the tectonic stress in the region to the extent that previous inactive tectonic faults in the region have reached their state of critical failure,” its author said in a statement.

o “Any further disturbance from a future test would generate earthquakes that may be damaging by their own force or crack the nuclear test sites of the past or present.” Kim Jong Un announced prior to the summit that his country no longer needed to conduct nuclear weapons tests, considered a goodwill gesture before the meeting, but some analysts wonder if this perhaps only showed confidence in the level of progress achieved.

“They’re basically talking the talk of advanced nuclear powers,” opined Duyeon Kim of the Korea peninsula future forum. “They don’t have to conduct tests anymore because they’ve reached that level.” Japanese reports last year suggested 200 people may have been killed in the earthquake at the test site. 

The two leaders vowed they would seek to end the war on the peninsula and hailed the beginning of a “new era of peace.” Observers note there’s a sense of déjà vu and much work lies ahead to ensure the success of this latest peace drive, but the now frail state of the north's nuclear infra-structure may leave Pyong-yang to consider a new path of true reconciliation.

Over the weekend Pyongyang announ-ced it would close the site where six nuclear tests were conducted and even "soon invite experts of South Korea and the United States to disclose the process to the international community with transparency," but denied the Punggye-ri site was rendered inoperable due to the recent quake. The North also said it would also change its clock to the South Korean time zone. Is it truly high time for peace?

CEUX QUI RESTENT AU POUVOIR

Qui dit changement de république dit changement de constitution, mais pas nécessairement de grand manitou. Ainsi lorsque le Tchad a proclamé la quatrième république ce n’était qu’en renforçant les pouvoirs du président de longue date, Idriss Deby, en poste depuis 1990, tout en éliminant celui de premier ministre et de vice président.

Beaucoup de femmes, mais aussi d’enfants de collaborateurs de longue date au sein de ce gouvernement de 29 membres de cabinet dévoilé.

L’opposition a boycotté la session parlementaire qui a adopté cette nouvelle constitution et voit d'un mauvais œil l’amnistie générale décrétée par le chef d’état lors de la transition, tout comme certains anciens ministres du président qui ont préféré trouver refuge ailleurs, notamment en France.

Quant aux forces politiques en présence dans ce pays dans la tourmente de Boko Haram, comme la Rébellion de l’union des forces de la résistance, elles estiment que Deby n’en est pas à sa première promesse douteuse.

Le pouvoir poursuit sa lutte contre Boko Haram, dont les attaques se sont notamment multipliées sur son territoire ces derniers temps. Une force multinationale mixte tente d’appuyer les efforts militaires du pays contre cet envahisseur nigérian qui aurait fait plus de deux millions de déplacés dans la région du Lac Tchad.

Depuis 2015 lorsque Boko Haram prêté serment à l’Etat islamique on a assisté à une multiplication des attaques à l'extérieur du Nigeria, notamment dans la région du lac. Cette lutte justifie-t-elle que l’on resserre les rangs?

Face à ce phénomène du dirigeant perpétuel, l’exception du Botswana, dont le président Ian Khama a quitté le pouvoir fin mars, espérant servir d’exemple dans un continent qui en a tant besoin. En claquant la porte, le fils du premier président botswanais avouait n’avoir jamais vraiment trouvé goût à la politique.

Ceci ne semble pas l’avoir empêché de faire de cette petite économie relativement prospère portée par le diamant un exemple démocratique. Puis le premier producteur d’Afrique a su notamment tirer profit de son partenariat avec le géant DeBeers, qui ne recevrait que 15% des revenus du diamant, le reste allant à l’état. 

Ceci est accompagné de résultats surprenants au palmarès anti corruption, où le pays figure à nouveau à titre d’exemple. Confronté à des problèmes sociaux tels la disparité des revenus et le chômage, le Botswana a néanmoins misé sur les dépenses en matière d’éducation, qui laissent un bilan fort enviable à cet ancien militaire.

Ancien chef rebelle quant à lui, le président burundais Pierre Nkurunziza semble être de ceux qui s'accrochent au pouvoir, le pays ayant organisé cette semaine un plebiscite afin de modifier la constitution de sorte que le chef d'état puisse se présenter jusqu'en 2034. Il s'agit selon la Fédération internationale des droits de l'homme d'un "stratagème visant à légaliser et ainsi légitimer le maintien au pouvoir de Nkurunziza pour deux mandats supplémentaires et renforcer son emprise sur le pays." L'homme de 54 ans ne le cache pas, il met ainsi en application son titre de "Guide suprême éternel"...  

LES ELECTIONS DU MONDE ARABE

Voilà bien neuf ans qu’on n’était pas passé aux urnes au Liban, par conséquent l'indifférence de certains le jour de l’élection mettait en évidence le manque de confiance à l'égard du processus et possiblement du statut démocratique du pays du cèdre.

Un an après de coup de théâtre qui envoya le premier ministre fuir en Arabie saoudite avant de nier d’y avoir été gardé en otage, comme tant de sujets riches du royaume sous le règne de M. Salman, Saad Hariri a vu ses sièges fondre tandis que ceux du Hezbollah et de ses alliés, qui avaient fait l’objet de ses préoccupations, ont nettement grimpé lors de cette élection à laquelle moins de la moitié des Libanais a jugé bon de participer.

Il faut dire qu’un nuage de violence flottait sur le pays à la veille du scrutin, bien que les électeurs ont été nombreux à sortir faire la fête dans les rues à la fin  de l’exercice. Hariri, un sunnite dont le parti Courant du futur a perdu un tiers des sièges, devra par conséquent tenter de former une nouvelle coalition mais les divisions vont sans doute, en raison des alliances, largement demeurer les mêmes, malgré les gains du Hezbollah.

Selon certains analystes les Libanais ont été bien peu émus par cet appel aux urnes et se disent déçus de l’état de la politique au pays. Un changement électoral à la proportionnelle aurait égale-ment semé la confusion chez des électeurs habitués aux listes électorales. “Nous avons parié sur un meilleur résultat et un bloc parlementaire plus large, déclara Hariri, déçu, le problème de cette loi électorale c’est que plein de gens ne l’ont pas comprise".

Le taux d'absention n'a d'ailleurs pas été meilleur ailleurs dans le monde arabe, même en Irak, lors de ces premières législatives depuis la défaite de l'Etat islamique où seuls 44,5% ont trouvé nécessaire de se montrer aux urnes. Cette fois, malgré ce que l'on peut penser de ce pays déchiré, l'exercice s'est déroulé largement sans violence.

Le goût du changement était prononcé chez ceux qui ont daigné s'exprimer, mais bien trop d'Irakiens redoutent que la corruption ne gâte cet exercice, dans un pays qui devra décider où et comment dépenser les quelques 30 milliards de dollars de l'aide internationale à la reconstruction.

Par conséquent le premier ministre Haider al-Abadi, favori de l'Ouest, est tombé troisième derrière le chef religieux Moqtada Sadr, dont la campagne déclarait la guerre à la corruption. Le pays est un des plus corrompus de la planète selon l'organisme Transparency International. Une alliance chiite appuyée par Téhéran est arrivée seconde.

Et malgré tout l'absention la plus importante a été enregistrée aux élections municipales tunisiennes, les premières depuis la révolution de jasmin, où plus de 64% ont préféré rester chez eux. Certes les élections locales attirent moins d'électeurs aux urnes ordinairement et le pays reste un modèle démocratique régional, mais là encore les déceptions à propos de l'économie et la lutte à la corruption ont eu de quoi garder les électeurs chez eux, particulièrement les jeunes. 

«D’après ce qu’on observe, l’abstention est particu-lièrement forte chez les jeunes, note à l'agence AFP Rafik Halouani, président d"une ONG d’observation des élections. Ils ne croient plus aux élections comme source de changement, ce qui est très grave pour la démocratie». A voir ces taux d'absention, le sentiment semble partagé.

HORROR IN TORONTO

After a harsh winter which had just days earlier left the Canadian metropolis covered in snow and ice, it was finally warm enough to stroll without a heavy jacket and enjoy the warmest days of the year so far. And that’s when disaster struck. A man drove a rented van on the sidewalk of busy Yonge street near Finch, repeatedly by some accounts, striking dozens of pedestrians along the way. He didn’t stop and fled the scene.

He was neutralized a few blocks down after spreading mayhem and bloodshed for over a kilometre. He first resisted arrest by pointing an object at an officer who had his gun drawn. The standoff lasted long seconds captured on video. This kind of situation usually ends in a hail of gun fire, but the officer didn’t fire. The man was single handedly arrested in connection with the multiple incidents.

Before long the casualties grew, then the death toll, to 10 dead and 14 injured, another mass casualty incident so soon after the 16 dead in a bus accident in Saskatchewan. But early on this didn't seem to be an accident. Officials said that while evidence was still being collected there was no national security threat resulting from the incident.

But officials soon called it an attack, and to many security analysts the scenario looked  tragically familiar. Terror groups have instructed followers repeatedly to take action using the weapons they could gather, such as knives and vehicles hard to guard against, instructions particu-larly relevant in countries with tough guns laws such as Canada.

The incident evolved from beginning to end without a single shot fired. Less than a year ago a man had attempted the same technique of using a vehicle as a weapon outside a football game in Edmonton. In Europe vehicles have been used repeatedly against pedestrians from London to Berlin. Before the terrible truck ramming incident in Nice one man had sought to run down soldiers in Quebec in 2014, a day before another man entered the parliament shooting.

“When carrying out violent attacks, terrorists, especially those in the West, are increasingly adopting low-sophistication, low-resource means of committing high-impact violent acts,” Public Safety Canada’s 2017 Report on the Terrorist Threat to Canada noted. But 25 year old Alek Minassian, charged with 10 counts of first degree murder, was not on the radar or associated with any terror groups.

Rather he had just posted a short praise on social media of a man who had committed mass murder in the U.S. and called for an "incel rebellion", or an uprising of "involuntarily celibate" men,  angry about their lack of ability to attract women. Before police completely identified all of the victims, it became clear the majority, eight of the ten dead, were women, in an attack which provided some flash back to Marc Lepine's gunning down of women at Polytechnique nearly 30 years ago.

The van technique appeared terrorist-inspired,  but could be used for very different motives. “The broader truth is that the use of vehicular attacks by terrorists has spawned not only copy-cat attacks by other terrorists and those inspired by terrorist causes, but copy-cat attacks by individuals driven by other motivations and causes outside of terrorism,” said security expert Wesley Wark.

The incident occured as a G7 meeting of ministers was taking place in Toronto and during hockey playoffs which usually bring thousands to the streets to watch the games in public. Weeks before the beginning of the summer festival season, it caused authorities to add security barriers in front of some major venues. This would be the deadliest attack in Canada since last year's mosque shooting which killed six people.

Both accused survived to be tried in the courts, and the arresting officer in Toronto was particularly praised for withholding fire even though he was being threatened by the man, holding an object he determined posed no danger. After a number of police shootings across the continent, this was a welcome develop-ment, especially since the suspect claimed to have a weapon on him.

"I don't care, get down!" the officer barked, forcing him to comply. No other officer was present for this arrest, nor did the officer immediately realize the enormity of the man's actions. The officer's cool under fire may provide lessons for legions of officers across the continent, just as the response to the Dawson attack in Montreal in 2006 had in many police departments changed the modus operandi from first securing the site of a shooting, to rushing in immediately to avert further bloodshed.

But security specialists concede that using a vehicle as a weapon is difficult to guard against. A number of public sites have in time added barriers separating them from roadways, such as the U.S. embassy in Ottawa following the Sept. 11 attacks. Roads to Parliament Hill for Canada 150 celebrations were blocked by dump trucks filled with sand to prevent such an attack from occurring, but this cannot be prevented across entire cities.

“No matter what they do, they cannot prevent that from happening,” said Alan Bell, president of the security firm Globe Risk International. “Unfortunately, it’s one of those things we have to learn to live with.” Officials are therefore encouraging vigilan-ce, and awareness of one's surroundings. And some have reacted to the attack likewise. "I was walking along the street and stayed away from the sidewalk close to the buildings," one woman said. "A van would be damaged if it tried to hit me." A sad observation in today's world.

STRIKING SYRIA

When Russia installed anti missile systems in Syria in 2015, it raised quite a few questions: who were they intended for considering neither ISIS nor the Syrian rebels posed the threat they serve to defend against?

Allied forces, especially the U.S., would be another matter. Some systems could even shoot down an American cruise missile. When the U.S. made use of cruise missiles after a deadly chemical attack last year the defences were not deployed, but, as America considered new strikes after repeated and continuing evidence of chemical attacks by the Syrian regime this spring, denied by both Assad and Moscow, a Russian diplomat warned his country's missiles would counter the attack and, going further, strike its source, in the defence of its Syrian ally.

This would amount to a first direct clash between the two powers, in the explosive environment of the Middle East where such technology has been in display for years. Israel has used  its own interceptors to shoot down crude missiles out of Gaza with its Iron Dome defense shield. Saudi Arabia has defended itself, as recently as this week, against missiles from Yemen.

 In Syria for the first time Russia deployed a 240km range SA-23 anti-missile system out of its borders. At the time it was installed U.S. officials quipped: “Nusra (al-Qaida linked terror group) don’t have an Air Force do they?” Such power would not be of use against smaller aerial threats sometimes considered by Islamist groups such as armed light drones.

The U.S. has been careful about flying manned aircrafts in Syria ever since an earlier anti missile system, the S-400, was installed after a Russian jet was shot down by a Turkish jet three years ago, radically bringing up tensions between the two regional powers. So when the U.S. and its British and French allies carried out missile attacks against Syria's chemical weapons producing industry last week, signalling their outrage after a recent suspected chemical attack in Douma, concern of Russian anti missile deploy-ment was palpable.

The U.S. had sought to mitigate the risk of Russian casulaties and contain a possible fallout with Moscow but had not given notice of its intentions to the Kremlin. In the aftermath U.S. officials said there was no Russian anti missile deployment, but Moscow claimed that Syrian defenses had shot down more than half of over 100 cruise missiles targeting Syria, and president Putin vowed any future attack would have serious consequences and ultimately create "chaos".

Was this just a continuation of the misin-formation campaign waged by Russia at the UN during a recent spat with the West where it claimed, not only that Syria had not orchestrated a chemical attack, but rather, pointed the finger at Britain? Supporting an Arab ally while it was itself accused of using chemicals to attempt to assassinate a Russian spy in England? Following the UN exchange, during which the U.S. claimed some 50 attacks by Damascus had been chemical since 2011, the UN Secretary General could only sight that the Cold War was "back with a vengeance".

Some 500 people are said of having been affected by the attack East of the Syrian capital, the latest in a series of suspected gas attacks perpe-trated by the regime. The World Health Organization said 70 people sheltering in basements were killed in the attack against the rebel held town of Douma. This act strained the U.S. president's relationship with Russia, hardening the tone at a time of intensifying efforts in the Russian collusion investiga-tion and as a book critical of the president was hitting the stores.

“Our relationship with Russia is worse now than it has ever been and that includes the Cold War,” Donald Trump, who has been accused of not being firm enough against Russia, Tweeted. This week Russia's foreign minister echoed the same, seemingly unlikely, sentiment. The clash comes at a time Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg told U.S. congressmen his company was in an arms race with Russia, accused of using social media tools to meddle in U.S. affairs, and as Russia claims it has developed new hypersonic missile capabilities which U.S. military officials concede are a grave threat to the homeland.

“Right now we’re helpless,” was quoted as saying Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma about growing Russian, and by some accounts Chinese, hypersonic capabilities, possibly challenging what for decades has been U.S. defence supremacy. Putin claimed the technology made Russia invincible against U.S. defences.

The Pentagon insists the U.S. is “fully prepared” to meet the challenge, but by using nuclear deterrence rather than deploying capability to shoot down such missiles. The U.S. is trying to develop space sensors to track them. Russia meanwhile is trying to play catch up in the space race involving capabilities to target satellites. Back on Earth Trump declared "mission accom-plished" following the strikes, described as a one-off to degrade the country's chemical weapons industry, unless further attacks warrant more action. The strikes were also meant to warn Moscow about its ties to the Syrian regime.

The Kremlin vowed there would be "consequences." Critics how-ever weren't only found on the Russian or Syrian sides, but pointed out the targeted strikes near Damascus and Homs would do little to prevent the Syrian military from committing atrocities by conventional means, while others blamed Trump's earlier statements he wanted to withdraw forces from Syria "very soon" for signalling Damascus it could act freely against its own citizens.

French president Macron said he managed to convince Trump to keep troops in Syria, but he himself, as well as Britain's May, were criticized at home for not holding debates in their legislatures on the strikes. European officials have become wary of U.S. intelligence claims since the Iraq fiasco, and China wasted no time pointing out U.S. intelligence had been proven wrong in the past. As international observers were trying to access Douma to con-firm gas use, the U.S. accused Russia of tampering with the scene, as the info wars also continued.

AND NOW FLOODS
They fled their homes with little notice and few possessions to escape violence and destruction only to face more threats during the perilous journey out. When they did reach safe harbor, often in neighboring Bangladesh, the desperate Rohingyas their oppressors claimed were Bengal migrants hardly found a welcoming mat.

Dhaka agreed to take them in only after much international pressure and aid, but soon pressed for their return. It is hardly safe to do so and the UN questioned claims by the regime in Myanmar the first families were repatriated, uncertain about their safety and what if anything they would find once back home, where entire villages have been burned to the ground.

The neighboring countries signed an agreement for the returns of some 700,000 refugees who fled violence but the UN says any such move back is still premature. After all refugees are still fleeing Myanmar, dozens having been rescued by the Thai navy recently after drifting for nine days.

But for the tens of thousands of migrants in squalid camps they now call home in Bangladesh near the Burmese border the  status quo is no longer an option. This year's imminent monsoons are threatening the low level areas with their terrifying downpours, making it necessary to move a minority no one seems to want yet again.

Authorities have been touting a move to an island they claim would be safer, but this has yet to be endorsed by doubtful regional aid agencies and  many remain exposed to the elements. Monsoons are closely monitored on the suffocating sub continent, where their arrival is usually cause for celebration for the relieving precipitations they bring, salvation in countries where 40C temperatures can be common.

While the full monsoon is not expected to hit the refugee camps until the end of June, the first heralding rainfalls have already flooded some areas of the region, a bad omen for the weeks ahead. Destruction of any remaining property is the least of the survivors' concerns, rather they face the many ailments and epidemics which accompany such widespread flooding.

Meanwhile the United Nations Security Council again urged Myanmar's government to fulfill promises to hold perpetrators of the violence to account - something human rights groups such as Amnesty International say is not likely by the current regime - as well as address the root of the cause for the refugee wave. Myanmar's regime has exonerated all but a dozen members of the security forces for crimes against Rohingyas.

By the security council's own account the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine state, which most Rohingyas fled, remains dire, leaving officials "gravely concerned." Adding to the tragedy, the result of countless incidents of sexual violence which are resulting in no less than 60 births a day in the squalid refugee camps housing survivors.

CHANGER DE NOM

Malgré les référendums en Ecosse et en Catalogne, il faut bien remonter quelques années pour assister à la création du pays le plus jeune. Certains pays existants ont cependant changé de nom ces dernières années, chose qui accompagnait dans le passé le rejet de vestiges du colonialisme.

Après la séparation de velours des années 90 l’ancienne Tchécoslovaquie devenue République tchèque a été renommée Tchéquie, bien que plusieurs aient gardé l’ancienne désignation. Puis cinquante ans après l’indépendance de son pays, le dernier monarque absolu du continent africain a renommé son Swaziland le royaume d'eSwatini, terre de Swazis dans la langue locale.

D'autres pays avaient accompagné l'indépendance par un changement de nom, tels la Rhodésie, devenue Zimbabwe, le Nyasaland devenu Malawi et Bechuanaland rebaptisé Botswana. Selon le roi le changement était d’autant plus pressant que le nom prêtait à confusion avec Suisse, en anglais. Englobé par la vaste Afrique du Sud, le petit pays de 1,3 million est surtout agricole, pauvre, et rongé par le VIH.

Ainsi plusieurs sujets regrettent que le roi y voit avec ce changement purement esthétique la grande priorité de ce pays qui a tant de besoins de santé, entre autres, pressants. "A lire ne nouveau nom, on croirait parler d'une entreprise start-up, commentait Usman Ali sur les médias sociaux, je veux bien que l'on change les noms coloniaux, là n'est pas la question, l'ordre des priorités cependant..."

D'autres étaient plus directs: "Swaziland ou Eswatini, on a toujours faim," écrit Notsile Nkambule. Couronné il y a plus de 30 ans, Mswati III a longtemps fait l'objet de critiques en raison de son style de vie excessif dans ce pays pauvre. La confusion est également à l’origine de la bisbille continuelle et toujours non résolue au sujet de la Macédoine, pays déchiré du joug yougoslave dont le nom est le même que celui d’une région grecque avoisin-nante.

Pourtant de nouveaux espoirs se dessinent à l'horizon depuis que Skopje ait décidé de changer le nom de son aéroport (Alexandre le Grand), autre sujet de controverse entre les deux voisins. L'UE a applaudi les réformes récentes du premier ministre Zoran Zaev, qui vise l'accession de son pays à l'UE. Ce dernier se montre plutôt optimiste sur la question: "Je crois que les circonstances n'ont jamais été meilleures de trouver une solution complète une fois pour toute."

Avec l'indépendance la controverse n'avait été que temporairement mise de côté lorsque les Nations unies ont proposé le nom provisoire d'Ancienne république yougoslave de Macédoine. La Grèce accuse notamment le petit pays de 2 millions d'habitants de vouloir s'approprier toute une panoplie de symboles grecs, du soleil qui brille sur son drapeau (presque identique à celui de la bannière de la province grecque) à l'image même d'Alexandre le Grand, né grec mais devenu le souverain le mieux connu de ces terres contestées.

Et quelles terres, à une époque la Grande Macédoine englobait non seulement les frontières actuelles et la province grecque voisine mais également une partie du territoire bulgare et albanais. D'où l'importance de ce changement de nom de l'aéroport. Le pays avait déjà changé son drapeau afin de ne pas davantage offenser un voisin grec plutôt sensible sur la question.

Les deux pays sont dorénavant reliés par une autoroute de l'amitié. Les espoirs de règlement ne datent pas d'hier, mais le chef de la diplomatie de L'UE trouve tout à fait plausible d'en venir à une entente cet été.

L'ARMENIE DANS LA RUE

Dans une région connue pour son autoritarisme, les manifestants ne se sont pas gênés d’investir les places publiques de la capitale arménienne pour rejeter la selection du premier ministre, l’ancien président Serge Sarkissian, accusé de vouloir étendre son règne éternellement.

Avait-il puisé cette idée en suivant avec envie  les douteuses élections qui ont re-élu le président du voisin azerbaïdjanais pour un quatrième mandat? Alors que les deux voisins anciennement soviétiques restent rivaux sur plusieurs fronts, notamment celui de la région contestée de Karabakh, l’élection de Sarkissian par les membres de son parti, avec pouvoirs renforcés, rapprochait Erevan du genre de régime peu démocratique que l’on retrouve de Bakou à Tachkent.

Pourtant Arménie et voisine géorgienne ont cette cote de pays "en “partie libre” selon dans la mappemonde de Freedom House, qui analyse les tendances géopolitiques internationales. Autant dire que les derniers gestes avaient de quoi décevoir.

“Il ne manque pas d’exemples de dirigeants politiques à travers cette région qui essaient de s’accrocher au pouvoir après la fin de leur mandat, regrette Transparency International, citant le retrait des limites de mandat en Azerbaijan (dont l'élection a été boycotté par l'opposition) et l’inversion des rôles entre premier ministre et président en Russie, où cette fois la présidence a accumulé les pouvoirs.

Curieusement, celle-ci est devenait plutôt symbolique avec la transition de Sarkissian en Arménie. Transparency a remis en question les deux mandats de cet ancien militaire, soulignant les irrégularités de 2008 et 2013, ainsi que celles du référendum de 2015 qui lui a permis d’effectuer les changements constitutionnels lui permettant de rester au pouvoir après son second mandat présidentiel.

Mais les manifestations commencées à la mi-mars continuaient à rassembler des dizaines de milliers de personnes un mois plus tard, à l’appel du dirigeant de l’opposition Nikol Pachinian, au cri de “L’Arménie sans Serge”. “Sarkissian manque de légitimité et s’est attiré la haine des Arméniens”, déclare celui-ci, se disant lancer “le début d’une révolution pacifique de velours”.

Peu étonnant donc qu'à la démission de Sarkissian, Pachinian poursuive sont offensive en vue de faire renverser le gouvernement tout entier. "Notre mouvement n'était pas contre une personne mais contre notre système. corrompu et illégal," martèle Pachinian.

Les républicains sont au pouvoir depuis plus de 20 ans au pays et Sarkissian était entre autre accusé d'être trop près de Moscou et de ne pas en faire assez contre la corruption et pauvreté, qui touche près d'un tiers des citoyens.

Sentant le vent tourner, le parti a déclaré qu'il ne présenterait pas de candidat à l'élection du premier ministre, ouvrant la voie à Pachinian. Or ce dernier n'a dans un premier temps cette semaine pas rassemblé assez de votes afin de remporter le poste, prolongeant la crise ainsi que les manifestations d'une rue qui estime avoir été trompée.

Après réflexion, le parti au pouvoir a promis un second scrutin, toujours sans proposer de candidat, qui permettrait à Pachinian de devenir premier ministre intérimaire. "Pachinian est différent de la plupart des personnalités de l'opposition car il est audacieux, fait remarquer le sociologue Guevorg Pogossian à propos du dirigeant de 42 ans barbu à la casquette, député depuis un an à peine à la tête du parti Contrat Civil, il n'a pas peur, il est créatif."

LE DRAME

Lorsque le maire de la petite communauté de Humboldt a appris la terrible nouvelle de l’accident mortel d’un autobus du club de hockey junior, il a fait ce que plusieurs autres ont eu le réflexe de faire dans cette communauté bouleversée de 6000 de la Saskatchewan, il s’est rendu à l’arena Elgar Petersen pour se recueillir avec ses pensées troubles et fixer la glace du regard.

En peu de temps le centre de celle-ci était couronné de fleurs et devenu le centre du recueillement. Cet après-midi là le club junior A des Broncos de la ligue provinciale se rendait à Nipawin pour y disputer un match d’éliminatoires lorsque son autobus est entré en collision avec un camion remorque, emportant la vie de 16 passagers la plupart des joueurs de 16 à 21 ans, et blessant les autres. Dans une si petite communauté des prairies qui vit de hockey et d’eau fraîche, c’était comme si on venait d'aspirer tout l’oxygène au monde.

Et pourtant la plus petite province de l’ouest n’en était pas à son premier drame du genre. En 1986 quatre joueurs des Broncos, de Swift Current cette fois, avaient trouvé la mort lors d’un accident d’autobus. La dernière tragédie survenait dix ans après la mort de sept jeunes basketteurs de l’équipe de l’école de Bathurst au Nouveau Brunswick, lors d’un accident de camionnette.

Trois ans plus tard une autre tragédie du genre annihilait l’équipe de hockey russe de Yaroslavl lors l’écrasement de son avion, tuant 44 passagers. Le sport a connu son compte de drames, mais la disparition de si nombreux adolescents a attristé le pays d'un océan à l'autre comme peu d'événements et entrainé le choc au sein même de la Ligue nationale.

De nombreux clubs observèrent un moment de silence avant d'entamer leur rencontre alors que la saison régulière tirait à sa fin. Les mots de sympathie ont afflué d'à travers le pays et d'étranger également, tandis que la communauté accueillait le premier ministre lors d'une veillée qui ne pouvait qu'avoir lieu que sur le site de tant d'exploits, à présent baigné dans le silence du recueillement.

Assis au fond, le chef de gouvernement y était un spectateur sous le choc parmi d'autres, 3000 en tout, alors que le pasteur Sean Brandow contait son arrivée sur le site de l'accident, ou il entendit des gémissements qu'il ne veut plus jamais entendre, et ou il a tenu la main des défunts. s

"C'était la vallée de la mort, de la noirceur, dit-il, la voix tremblante, tout ce que j'ai pu y voir était le malaise, l'anxiété, des larmes et la confusion. Je ne savais que dire, et je suis pasteur, c'est à moi de dire quelquechose." Au fil du temps il reprit courage, c'est dans l'esprit de ces communautés rurales à travers ce nord garni de 2500 arénas du genre, et ou le sport y regne en religion malgré le réchauffement qui limite la saison de hockey externe.

Puis, comme s'il fallait davantage tourner le fer dans la plaie, on s'est trompé sur l'identité d'une des 15 victimes. Parmi elles de jeunes prodiges qui touchaient encore et toujours des vies. Parmi eux Logan Boulet, qui à son 21e anniversaire a songé à signer sa carte de doin d'organe. Six personnes ont déjà trouvé preneur. Voilà ce qu'on retiendra de cette tragédie. La générosité est nationale. Un site de dons a vite atteint son but de recueillir $4 millions afin de soutenir les familles des victimes suite à la tragédie.

STILL TRADING

With North American free trade coming under protectionist fire and Brexit shaking the European Union, you could have thought the time for economic unions had passed, but efforts elsewhere indicate otherwise.

Continuing its decades-long quest to diversify its trade partners, Canada has looked West and South after moving East to find other partners and try to reduce its overwhelming reliance on trade with the United States.

Meanwhile Africa is trying to unify like never before, proposing a 44 country trade block, even if for now it does leave out the continent's two largest economies.

After all it could benefit with not only better trade but securing what other blocks had managed to secure - making these moves so important -, peace among neighbors
South Africa and Nigeria stayed on the sidelines of the March Kigali announcement eliminating customs barriers and spreading free trade among its members at a time trade spats were peppering the planet between the US, its neighbors, Europe, and even China.

It was a pet project of the African Union, which doesn’t have the level of integration of the EU, but the new zone would be the world's largest in terms of participating countries, even if the reluctant ones carry significant weight. Nigeria, for one, was among the nations leading the project at the onset, but stayed out due to union pressure at home.

Also out are Benin, Namibia, Erythrea and Sierra Leone. “Certain countries have reservations and haven’t finished consultations at home,” noted Albert Muchanga of the AU. “But we will hold another summit in Mauritania in July and hope these countries will sign them.” The AU hopes ACFTA will boost continental trade by 60% by 2022.

The continent's nations trade little among each other, but if all 55 countries joined it would represent a 1.2 billion market mammoth, though hardly a wealthy one. Critics say the poor shape of continental infrastructures and transport could prove daunting.

Trade has seen setbacks elsewhere as the EU looks to retaliate against US protectionist measures which have also enraged top trade partner China, but countries dealing with the new direction in Washington aren’t afraid to look elsewhere to open up trade.

This has for decades been a challenge for overly dependent Canada, which has been seeking a new "option" since Trudeau’s father was in power. It recently completed a Canada-EU trade deal which had been on the block for years and signed up for Trans Pacific Partnership and is now looking south, to Latin America, to seek trade diversification and new markets.

Almost as soon as it signed the TPP in Chile Canada moved to begin talks with Mercosur, a Latin bloc of hundreds of millions including Argentina and Brazil, with which trade has sometimes been a challenge. Canada already has free trade with four of the members, Mexico, Chile, Peru and Colombia.

Trade spokesman Joseph Pickerill says this is all a sign Canada’s efforts to diversify its trade are paying off. China meanwhile showed it wasn't shy to strike back against its biggest market, and accused Washington of opening a "Pandora's box" that could shake the world.

A LA RECHERCHE DES COUPABLES

Éloignée des zones de guerre, l’Europe est rarement le théâtre de la mort de journalistes. En 2017 deux seuls y ont connu leur fin, la première suite à la rencontre d’un inventeur de sous-marin au Danemark et l’autre victime d’une auto piégée à Malte.

Les deux ont connu une importante couverture médiatique. Ainsi la mort d’un journaliste d’enquête en Slovaquie fouillant le processus de sélection d’une employée du gouvernement aux qualifications douteuses, un ancien mannequin, n’a pas seulement soulevé la consternation dans cette petite nation de 5 millions, mais rassemblé des foules jamais vues depuis la révolution de velours, entraînant récemment la chute du chef de gouvernement.

La mort de Jan Kuciak était d’autant plus troublante qu’il enquêtait sur de possibles liens entre le pouvoir et des gens soupçonnés de lien au crime organisé. Le pays était-il sous une emprise mafieuse?

La question a elle seule suffit à forcer la démission du premier ministre de longue date Robert Fico, mais les manifestants n’étaient pas prêts à plier bagage, et se rassemblaient à nouveau au début du mois, quelques semaines après le meurtre de Kuciak et de sa fiancée, exigeant le renvoi du chef de la police et la poursuite de la lutte contre la corruption.

Cette semaine cependant c'est le ministre de l'intérieur qui rendait sa démission. Selon des journa-listes locaux la corruption imprègne tous les niveaux de l’appareil d’état. Malgré tout un proche de Fico, Peter Pellegrini, membre du même parti, a pris sa place à la tête du pays, promettant d’enquêter sur ces morts suspectes.

“Nous allons tout faire afin de faire de la Slovaquie un pays qui a réussi, un bon endroit où vivre et un pays dont nous pouvons être fiers.” Le pays ne s’en tire d'ailleurs pas trop mal, même lorsque comparé au confrère tchèque, une projection voyant la croissance grimper à 4% d’ici 2020.

Il y a dix ans la Slovaquie affichait même une croissance explosive de 14%, la meilleure de l’UE à l'époque. D'ailleurs pour la première fois depuis des années le pays a enregistré un gain au niveau de la migration en 2016, notamment en raison de l'arrivée de nouveaux migrants mais aussi grâce au retour de Slovaques qui étaient allés ailleurs.

L'an dernier le pays a aussi connu un gain de population de 15000. La tendance est cependant moins bonne chez les plus jeunes, encore plus enclins à voyager à l'extérieur que de rentrer au pays. Mais la rue gronde contre le parti au pouvoir, et avec, l'appel en faveur de nouvelles élections s'élève.

Mais plusieurs redoutent le manque d'oppo-sition convenable au pays, celle-ci risquant de donner voix aux nationalistes ou euro-sceptiques sur un continent où ils deviennent nombreux.

" La forte représentation des populistes conservateurs et des nationa-listes dans une éventuelle coalition gagnante soulève la possibilité de voir un scénario semblable à celui de la Pologne ou de la Hongrie se dessiner," estime le politologue Pavel Hardos: soit celui de "l'érosion démocratique."

THEY MARCH

It wasn't the first time the human caravan of Pueblo Sin Frontera, Village without borders, snaked its way across Mexico to protest U.S. policies and raise awareness for migrant issues, but this year a larger number of participants took part, and in the charged up immigration atmosphere, made Washing-ton shudder, sending members of the National Guard to the border.

With their few belongings they trudged along from town to town, most coming from violent Honduras, following a now well established railroad to the north before walls went up, physical ones after the hurdles put up by human traffickers, gangs and coyotes.
Before the wall there would be a military presence, the U.S. president warned, one unseen in years around the homeland.

Along the way a number of Mexican communities welcomed what at some point amounted to  1,500 or so Latin American migrants openly, after reports border guards at the Guatemala-Mexico border simply stepped out of the way. “The refugee caravan knocking down borders yesterday in Huehuetan! Immigration agents aban-doned the posts when they knew we were  coming,” wrote a member of the group, “The people celebrated this first little victory!”

While Mexican towns along the way also wished the travellers well the greeting was not expected to be replicated at the US border. The migrants said they were demanding “an end to political corruption in their cities and dignity and the right to asylum from Mexico and the United States.”

While the caravan was supposed to make a symbolic trek to Mexico City and disband, a number of participants said they would continue their voyage to the U.S. border, not one minute expecting to be greeted with a welcome mat. The U.S. president said he was sending the military to the border because the country lacked laws to protect it, urging Congress to enact tougher immigration laws.

But border states were not all willing participants, California, where hundreds sought to keep pushing on, saying the National Guard would be used to reinforce anti-drug measures, not turn away fleeing migrants.

This as Mexico insists it will not pay for a wall and as the administration struggles to reach a deal on so-called dreamers, children of illegal immigrants, after a number of immigrants living in the U.S. were told they had months to leave the country before the expiration of their temporary status.

But in an election year both in Mexico and the U.S., the border issue and trade have been major irritants, Mexico signalling it was reviewing all forms of cooperation with its neighbor, everything from the border to the drug war.

The ruling PRI party facing pressure to stand up to the U.S., Mexico is upping the ante after its Senate called for the Mexican government to end cooperation on a  number of issues, from migration to security, furious the U.S. sent troops to the border, something which had been done before under previous administrations, including Obama's, but with the goal of combating crime.

While all Mexican candidates favor a tough stand against the U.S., the ruling party is sitting third in the polls with leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leading the way when the campaign formally started this month. Obrador's policies would be sure to clash with Washington, as both countries and Canada work to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement.


CES MEDIAS SOCIAUX

Lors du printemps arabe, même si leur résultat laisse à désirer, on a fait leur éloge. Les réseaux sociaux avaient à tout jamais fait avancer la démocratie là où elle semblait proscrite. Mais à peine sept ans plus tard, force est de constater que le revers de la médaille a été plutôt brutal.

Et si les élections aux États-Unis et le référendum en Grande Bretagne avaient été influencés par des campagnes trompeuses alimentées par l’analyse des données de ces mêmes réseaux sociaux? Faisant son mea culpa suite à la fureur des révélations d’un lanceur d’alerte canadien, le fondateur de Facebook lui-mené s’avouait un peu dépassé: si on avait pu me dire quand j’étais en résidence en train de développer Facebook que j’allais un jour pouvoir influencer des élections...

Et pourtant c’est ce qui devient possible à la lumière des révélations sur Cambridge Analytica, non seulement au cœur de la controverse sur l’usage des données de 50 millions de membres de Facebook non consentants lors de l'élection américaine, mais agent d'influence ailleurs dans le monde, d’Afrique au Canada, grâce à l'analyse de ces données sociales. Et une ombre bien louche plâne sur le milieu.

Selon Christopher Wylie, un ancien directeur de recherche de CA, un analyste aurait même été retrouvé mort au Kenya lors d’un projet cherchant à faire ré-élire Uhuru Kenyatta, lorsque l’entente aurait mal tourné. Il s’agissait d’une des nombreuses opérations de CA cherchant à influencer les votes en Afrique, un continent où, selon Wylie lors de sa comparution devant un comité parlementaire en Grande Bretagne, l’échec peut parfois avoir des conséquences sérieuses.

La compagnie mère de CA, SCL, aurait par ailleurs cherché à influencer les élections au Nigéria en 2007, puis plus tard en 2015 en faisant circuler des images choc. A Trinité et Tobago on aurait même cherché à récolter des données sur la population entière de cette île de 1,3 million d’habitants. “Vous pouvez devenir des maîtres coloniaux dans ces pays,” dit-il.

sEt l’influence de cette récolte des données s’étend aux pays plus développés. La firme de Colombie britannique liée à CA à laquelle contribuait Wylie, AggregateIQ, est présentement sous enquête en Grande Bretagne afin de déterminer l’étendue de son influence lors du vote du Brexit.

“Cette compagnie a travaillé à travers le monde afin de fragiliser les institutions démocratiques au sein de tous genres de pays,” dit Wylie. On ne lui doit pas à elle seule, ni aux réseaux sociaux, la montée du populisme, selon l’ancien bureaucrate canadien Andrew Caddell. Mais “la différence entre le populisme d’antan et celui de nos jours c’est internet... qui donne un pouvoir crédible aux voix sans filtre d’individus qui se veulent des contrepoids à la pensée libérale moderne.”

Ou pour reprendre les dires d'Umberto Eco avant sa mort: "Les réseaux sociaux ont donné le droit de parole à des légions d'imbéciles qui avant ne parlaient qu'au bar et ne causaient aucun tort à la collectivité. On les faisait taire tout de suite."

CIAO CAVALIERE

La bonne nouvelle, le énième retour de Silvio Berlusconi n’a pas eu lieu lors de cette énième élection italienne. Cependant on est tombé sur la énième mosaïque électorale et les partis qui ont le mieux fait sont peu reluisants.

La dernière incarnation du populisme, le chef anti-immigrant d’extrême droite Matteo Salvini a fêté la première place de sa Ligue (17%) à titre de “victoire extraordinaire“ en qualifiant du coup la monnaie unique  d’”erreur”.

Pourtant l’écono-mie s’est remontée peu à peu ces dernières années, affichant une croissance (bien que modeste) sur quatre ans, mais le chômage reste à 11% et plusieurs Italiens n’ont ressenti aucune amélioration de leur sort.

Salvini, dont le parti est membre de la coalition de droite (37%), s’est engagé à parler à tous les partis en vue du dur travail de former le prochain gouvernement au pouvoir, y compris la Forza de son allié Berlusconi, et même le mouvement des 5 étoiles (32%), une étonnante union anticonformiste. Premier fait à constater, l'écroulement de la gauche et  la démission de Matteo Renzi, dont le Parti démocrate a perdu des sièges à travers le territoire.

L’élection pourtant peu concluante a été bien accueillie par l’extrême droite française, Marine Le Pen félicitant   “la     progres-sion spectaculaire et l’arrivée en tête de la coalition de la Ligue emmenée par notre allié et ami Matteo Salvini est une nouvelle étape du réveil des peuples.”

Mais les craintes se multiplient ailleurs que le tout dernier scrutin d'ingouverna-bilité de la botte soit au moins aussi conséquent que le Brexit qui ne cesse de faire des manchettes. Car le Royaume Uni, au moins, ne fait pas partie de la monnaie unique, contrairement à l'Italie. Résultat de cette élection qui avait tout pour déplaire aux partis traditionnels “des négociations de coalition complexes, longues et difficiles à prédire”, selon Federico Santi du groupe Eurasie, qui craint que les pourparlers se poursuivent au printemps.

D'autres vont plus loin encore. "Aucun expert n’exclut la possibilité que le Président Mattarella soit dans l’impasse et appelle à de nouvelles élections, une fois la loi électorale modifiée, note Fabien Gibault de l'université de Turin. Dans tous les cas de figure, une année politique stable et sereine est à oublier, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact direct sur l’économie de la péninsule."

Et pourtant ce système électoral fort complexe avait déjà fait l'objet de modificattions afin de rendre le scrutin plus apte à livrer une majorité et une certaine stabilité. Autant tenter de faire respecter les normes de circulation dans les rues de Rome. "Avec son mélange de suffrages proportionnel et majoritaire, des possibilités de repêchages et trois façons différentes de voter, ce système a donné plus de maux de tête aux électeurs que de satisfactions," note Gibault.

A FAMILIAR SCENARIO

There was something tragically familiar in the poisoning of a former double agent and his daughter in the streets of Salisbury, England, all the while the tactic employed an alarming new trend in assassinations. Last week it was with little surprise that British Prime Minister Theresa May stated that the investigation showed it was “highly likely that Russia is responsible” for the attack on Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia using a military grade nerve agent associated with Russia.

Hours after the two were found slumped in a park poisoned by the nerve agent  analysts recalled the fatal attack against Alexander Litvinenko, which employed polonium traced to Russia. That 2006 attack followed a vote in the Russian Duma green lighting foreign assassinations.

As with the earlier case the Kremlin denied any involvement, calling May's assertions a fairy tale, and while the attack was reminiscent of Litvinenko’s it also reflected the stark new reality of brazen state sponsored assassi-nations in public spaces, and the threat to untargeted members of the public simply at the wrong place at the wrong time.       

The attack not only affected the former spy but also his daughter and ended up hospitalizing a few dozen other people due to the nature and potency of the method. Another attack of the sort was carried out in an international airport a year earlier when two women unwittingly killed Kim Jong Nam, a half brother of the North Korean leader, critical of his rule, wiping VX poison on his face.

They later claimed they thought they were taking part in a television show and knew nothing about the plot. British officials meanwhile described the attack on Skripal as brazen considering it took place in a public space, while father and daughter were on the town in a cafe and later in a restaurant.

Some 38 people were treated in hospital in all including a policeman who was the first responder attending to the ailing duo. In all hundreds of people may have been in some way contaminated by the nerve agent simply for passing through areas where Skripal and his dauther had been, and police instructed these members of the public to wash their clothes, jewellery and cellphones, though added there was no further risk to the population. Police at the scene wore protective gear while staff at the restaurant were told to throw away their clothes and visit a doctor.

Days later the discovery of a dead Russian mogul found with "strangu-lation marks" in London, a critic of Putin who had claimed Litvinenko was on a hit list, further soured already tense UK-Russia relations. This latest macabre discovery came after some Russian media made light of the Skripal affair, quipping that "traitors" settling in England perhaps should be concerned about their health.

The scenes all harken back to the darkest days of the Cold War, coming 40 years after Bulgarian defector Georgi Markov was killed by a poison-tipped umbrella in the streets of London  in 1978. England has hardly been the only country where expats running afoul with a  government could end up on a hit list. At the end of 2016 a British investigation found evidence of an assassination campaign of former residents of the Soviet Union in Turkey, linked to Russian hit men. 

Much further back, two years before Litvinenko's demise, a former acting president of Chechnya was killed by car bomb in Qatar. A Qatari court found two Russian military intelligence agents guilty of his murder. "This is a regime that believes, firstly, that it has the right to act abroad in the interests of its own security," told the BBC Mark Galeotti of the Institute of International Relations in Prague.

The U.K. responded to the most recent poisoning by expelling 23 Russian diplomats it considers "undeclared intelligence agents" and convened the UN Security Council on the matter. It also threatened to cut cable access to Russian channel RT among other measures. The channel has expressed skepticism at May's charges of Russian involvement because it said her address to parliament on the matter lacked evidence.

Some Russian officials have called the affair fake news planted to influence the presidential election, easily won by Vladimir Putin, who denied Russia had such weapons. His official pointed the finger at the UK and Czechia. Moscow announced it too would send 23 Britons packing. The sacking of America’s state secretary hours after he had expressed support for London and condemned Moscow over the affair sparked concerns in the current environment of claims of Russian collusion.

But President Trump stressed he was “with the UK all the way” on the incident. The EU and other countries such as Canada supported London, the incident happening as movement was afoot to relax some EU sanctions against Moscow. Of course other countries have also conducted assassination attempts around the world, those targeting Fidel Castro being legendary, and this well after the end of the Cold War.

A policy adopted under president Obama in fact allowed for the presidential approval of killings without legal process anywhere in the world, drones being the preferred method in some cases. In such cases, casualties have sometimes also included innocent bystanders. Furthermore a key issue of debate recently engaging capitals from London to Paris is whether Western troops had the right to target citizens of their own countries who have gone off to fight with ISIS.

MORE AGRARIAN HORROR?

As Zimbabwe transitions after decades of living under its first president, there’s new hope that some of the country’s worst years may finally be behind it. Among them, a period of violent reforms marked by the takeover of white farms by unqualified owners which went on to annihilate the country’s food production and slam the national economy. Could the same happen in wealthy South Africa under the changes proposed by the new leadership?

The country’s parliament passed a motion that would consider uncom-pensated land seizures from white farmers, but president Cyril Ramaphosa stressed the measures, long considered but never acted on in the post-apartheid spirit of reconciliation, must be carried out while ensuring continued food production and security, and only after a long dialogue that would avoid spreading panic. “There is no need for any of us to panic and start beating war drums,” he said. “We are going to address this and make sure that we come up with resolutions that resolve this once and for all. This original sin that was committed when our country was colonized must be resolved in a way that will take South Africa forward.”

But longtime white home owners fear the sort of expropriation which cost the neighboring economy dearly. Efforts to undergo such changes until now in South Africa have seen similar failure amid a crisis of lack of training for black farmers. The motion had been brought forward by the leader of the radical Marxist opposition Julius Malema and amended by the ruling ANC, its new leader having made it a key platform since replacing Jacob Zuma.

“The time for reconciliation is over, now is a time for justice,” Malema said. “We must ensure that we restore the dignity of our people without compensating the criminals who stole our land.” Malema was once quoted saying he was “not calling for the slaughter of white people. At least for now.”

Thandeka Mbabama of the opposition Democratic alliance party called the move a demonstration of the government's failure on the file over the years. “By arguing for expropriation without compensation the ANC has been gifted the perfect scapegoat to explain away its own failure,” blaming corruption at the only party in power since the end of apartheid. “Expropriation without compensation would severely undermine the national economy, only hurting poor black people even further.”

Ernst Roets of Afriforum , a white nationalist group, disputed the notion “white peoples who own land necessarily obtained it by means of oppression, violence or forced removals,” calling the measures “nothing more than racist theft.” About 70% of farmland in the country is owned by whites, which represent 8.5% of the population. “If the South African economy fails there is no other place to go,” voiced Dave Stewart on an opinion board.  “It’s not only a threat to farmers but all South Africans."

For all the failings of the economy, land seizures are still viewed favourably by the new Zimbabwean leader, though Emmerson Mnan-gagwa admits some form of compensation should proba-bly be considered for removed owners, if only to reassure investors still bold enough to consider the country.

"The land settlement was a huge success in terms of our people 367,000 of our people, back in possession of the land," he told the Economist. While the "success" of the policy is debatable, some argue South Africa's recent efforts to reform have been a total failure. "The land reform programme has been a dismal failure" so far, argues Lungisile Ntsebeza of the University of Cape town.

"Despite the promise that 30% of agricultural land would be transferred to black by 1999, less than 1% of land had exchanged hands by that year. This prompted the ANC, then under President Thabo Mbeki, to change the date to 2014. As things are at the beginning of 2018, only about 8% of the land has been transferred to black under the land reform programme."

But others argue the lack of correct data on the issue is clouding the debate. "In general, the lack of accurate information on land reform and the rural economy allows much of the public debate to be misinformed, and is a serious constraint on policy making," says Ben Cousins of the  University of the Western Cape.

"Nobody knows precisely how much agricultural land has been privately purchased by black farmers and how much has been acquired via land reform." Half a world away, Australia braced for a possible influx of white farmers, the likes of which it had seen in the past, the interior minister drawing South African ire for saying Australia would welcome farmers fleeing outright "persecution".

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull later retracted the statement, as both capitals sought to calm tensions. Nearly a quarter century after its first democratic vote, South Africa has been seeing a number of transformations, and while revenge has until now never been in the cards against the minority which once ruled, the majority isn't afraid to break new ground.

At the end of March in a landmark ruling a court jailed a white real estate agent, Vicky Momberg, for three years, for uttering a derogatory term against a black police officer no less than 48 times.  A bit harsh, the judge of the rainbow nation conceded, but a firm example to demonstrate racism would no longer be tolerated. "It sets a precedent for other racial-related cases,"  officials said.

QUELLE PLACE POUR L'INDEPENDANCE?

Une troisième place pour le Parti québécois à quelques mois des élections, un Bloc réduit à trois membres, les temps sont bien durs pour le mouvement souverainiste 25 ans après la création du parti fédéral visant à représenter le Québec à Ottawa. N’était-on pas passé à un poil du oui depuis cette entrée en 1993 et le Bloc n’avait-il pas un temps assumé le rôle d’opposition officielle?

Puis, il y a 17 ans déjà, Lucien Bouchard quittait la scène politique, avouant l'échec dans sa tentative de soulever la cause souverainiste. Plusieurs lui en voulaient de ne pas organiser un troisième référedum. Puis en 2012 le Québec élisait un parti québécois qui n'a su tenir le pouvoir que pour quelques mois à peine, avant de ramener les Libéraux au pouvoir. À Ottawa la seule mention d’indépendance inspire le malaise.

Ainsi lorsque la chef du Bloc Martine Ouellet a insisté à ce qu’on pousse davantage sur le sujet, sept des dix membres du parti on claqué la porte pour siéger comme indépendants, leur indépen-dance parlementaire un signe de rejet.

Pourtant tous disent partager cet idéal, cette idée d’un jour faire du Québec un pays, mais plusieurs favorisent représenter les intérêts du Québec en chambre fédérale plutôt que parler d’indépen-dance à chaque intervention: “Si on l’avait écoutée nous aurions posé toutes nos questions de l’automne sur la Catalogne alors que le feu brillait dans le dossier Bombardier-Boeing et que tout le monde parlait des gaffes de Bill Morneau”, confia un bloquiste à l’Actualité.

Autre point de litige, le fait que la chef, anciennement du Parti québécois,  maintienne son siège de député indépendant... à Québec, sans définitivement s’installer à Ottawa, un rôle à temps partiel pour une cause qui a bien tourmenté des adeptes à temps plein à travers les âges. Selon un sondage le Bloc ne recueillerait que 12% des intentions de vote si une élection avait lieu à l'heure actuelle, et celle-ci approche à grand pas.

Pour tenter de renverser la tendance Ouellet a proposé la tenue d'un référendum, non pas sur l'indépendance mais sur le rôle du Bloc. Mais selon les membres qui ont pris la porte, Ouellet joue à l'autruche.

"Depuis plus d’une semaine, il nous apparaît clair que madame Ouellet est dans le déni, rejette du revers de la main toute remise en question de son leadership et tente de nous discréditer en remettant en question nos convictions indépendantistes », affirment-ils dans un communiqué. Un peu plus de la moitié des électeurs estiment qu'elle devrait abandonner son poste, selon un sondage récent.

A peine 37% des partisans du Bloc semblent lui faire confiance et presque autant préfèrent son départ. Sur la scène fédérale le parti risque en fait de tout simplement disparaitre. "Si les Québécois devaient passer aux urnes maintenant, le Bloc québécois serait éradiqué de la carte électorale, affirme Jean-Marc Léger.

Le sondage montre que les Québécois n'ont pas confiance en Mme Ouellet. Et en plus, ses priorités ne sont pas alignées avec celles de ses membres." Sur fond d'écroulement du mouvement, Québec lance un centre d'analyse politique sur la Constitution et le fédéralisme tout en tentant de relancer le dialogue constitutionnel dans le but de réintégrer la province dans le giron constitutionnel. Ordinairement ceci a tendance à réchauffer un bien vieux débat.

HORRORS AGAIN

The Islamic State may be on the run in Syria but hardly any peace is to be had amid the rubble. Only more horrors, bloodshed and heart break. And after years of this, aid agencies are running out of ways to plead for help. If anything trying to make out the new active and violent players and alliances in the conflict is no different than trying to collect the parts of broken buildings among the debris.

There has been little reprieve for so-called victors. Among them Kurds of the north of the country, supported by the United States, who have come under fire by Turkey, targeting a militia it says has spread terrorism in Turkey. Ankara has been carrying out air and ground attacks across the border in the Syrian city of Afrin, sparking concerns of a clash with Washington.

Damascus has called the intrusion a blatant attack on its sovereignty but refrained from supporting local authorities in the city of some 200000 largely Kurdish citizens. Ankara warned doing so, in its own land, would expose Syria to serious reprisals. Providing a quick glimpse of the many actors in the region, Turkey said it had targeted a convoy of Shi’a militiamen trying to head to Afrin and asked  Damascus’ Iranian and Russian allies to stop any troops from being deployed.

Damascus has however not hesitated to continue its offensive against rebels closer to the capital, drawing the condemnation of world leaders. Rebels continue to be active in the northwestern region of Idlib and in Eastern Ghouta, where its Iranian and Russian allies have been assisting the regime.

But President Assad has been once more accused of using chlorine gas targeting Ghouta, a besieged area of 400000 which has been the scene of tragedy only too reminiscent of Aleppo. Despite  condemnation of what have been repeated reports of gas attacks, there has been no repeat of the cruise missile strike which followed previous use of chemical weapons in the conflict.

Lack of action by the West has left UN officials deploring he situation, and drawing comparisons with the dark hours of the Balkans in the 1990s. At least “the conflict in Bosnia was brought to a halt by the international community after four years,” noted UN commissioner for human rights Zeid Raad Al Hussein.

“The failure to end it marks an epic failure of global diplomacy.” In the mean time another region of the troubled country faces a humanitarian catastrophe. The Syrian observatory for human rights reported over 600 killed and thousands wounded in recent weeks. “No words will do justice to the children killed, their mothers, their fathers and their loved ones,” stated an overwhelmed UNICEF regional director in light of the latest violence.

Eastern Ghouta is far from being a new front in the war between the government and rebels which has raged since 2011 as it has been targeted for five of those years already. The observatory says the latest attacks killed dozens of women and children in a single day, the UN calling the targeting of medical facilities in particular nothing short of “war crimes” and "crimes against humanity."

“Civilians are being pounded into submission or death," said the UN High Commissioner for human rights. The perpetrators of these crimes must know they are being identified; that dossiers are being built up with a view to their prosecution; and that they will be held accountable for what they have done.”

The fighting has left the trapped population unable to receive medical aid, and agencies have reported dozens of their workers lost to the attacks. “The longer the siege and bombing goes on, it is effectively a death sentence for many children,” said Alun McDonald of Save the children.

Sweden and Kuwait drafted a UN resolution calling for a 30-day ceasefire and to end attacks on civilians in the conflict which has claimed over half a million lives and has left over 8 million children in need. Last weekend, and despite the reluctance of Moscow, the Security Council approved it, but this failed to stop attacks immediately.

The ceasefire would not apply to the fight against the Islamic State or the Nusra Front, tied with al-Qaida. Only Monday did Russia agree to daily five-hour humanitarian pauses in the fighting to allow civilians to leave, the sort of agreement reached in Aleppo months before which did little to immediately quell the crisis.

It is nothing like what the UN had had in mind, its Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warning: "Eastern Ghouta cannot wait. It's high time to stop this hell on Earth." But even the promised temporary halt to fighting failed to materialize as further bombing, and even a new report of chemical attack, took place at the promised hours, preventing any aid from coming in or any survivors from escaping the war zone.

A UN report blamed North Korea for assisting Syria with chemicals weapons. Russian troops on the ground assisted Syrian soldiers fighting rebels while Russian jets dropped their payload from above, confining citizens to their basements and prolonging the suffering.

Russians mercena-ries have also been active trying to undermine U.S. operations in the country, but have fatally found themselves greatly overpowered. The presence of so many actors further complicates a crisis that risks drawing in large powers deeper after so many years of civil war.

ENCORE UNE TUERIE

TILL THE LAST DROP

At first sight it would seem unlikely this would be the first place to run dry. Standing on top of Table mountain overshadowing Cape Town water stretches for as far as the eye can see. Out in the distance you can barely make out the contours of Robben island where Mandela was sentenced.

We are after all near what was once considered to be the continent's southernmost point, leaving nothing but blue, though sometimes choppy, sea all the way to Antarctica.

Unlikely also because the areas around the world's poles tend to be less water stressed, from Russia and Canada in the north, the latter home to some of the world's best water, to Australia and New Zealand in the Southern Hemisphere, the Kiwis also benefiting from some of the world's highest quality h2o.

But as the globe's per capita water supply drops by a third in the two decades leading to 2025 Africa is one of the regions that will feel it most, and despite its relative wealth, South Africa will be hard hit. The looming deadline and rationing in Cape Town, where a third year of drought is threatening to empty the fresh water wells, follows what hydrologists call a once in a millennial event, after the area has been receiving less than half its usually 500mm of rain these recent years. While there has been some reprieve in that day zero, the day the taps run dry, has been pushed back from April to June, that is little comfort considering citizens will have to make do with 25 litres of water from then on. It has however so far been an extraordinary lesson in water consumption.

Twenty five litres would be half the amount rationed since January, in the South African summer. This would be an Olympic exercise in stretching current uses already limited to 20L for dishes, cooking and laundry, 2L for drinking, 15L for a 90 second shower and a few rounds of hand washing, but really you should use sanitizers. And do keep your used water to flush.

Of course not every country has drinkable water, and not every community even has running water. The northernmost areas of the continent, the Middle East and some parts of Asia are facing even more parched prospects, some areas even risking to go to war, a possibility the UN fears could be increasingly widespread in the future.

In the last half century over 1,800 water related crises have opposed countries, thankfully most were settled peacefully but 21 involved military violence, 18 of them involving Israel and its neighbors in the bone dry Middle East. Egypt in particular is concerned a major dam project in Ethiopia could affect water flow and quality for the Nile.

Also a number of observers have noted water woes played no small part leading to the rise of ISIS in Syria, where it was successful recruiting in dry areas which had suffered economically due to these shortages. Overall water issues have rarely led to war in the past but this could change as the planet enters uncharted waters says Peter Engelke of the Atlantic councils strategic foresight initiative.

“There are very good reasons why we should be concerned,” he wrote in the Washington Post. The sentiment is being echoed halfway across the world in bone dry California. “What we can see is that it’s very possible for water crises - which emerge all the time across the world - to get close to the point of real, massive human disaster,”  said Michael Kiparsky of the University of California.

It did end up raining in Cape Town recently, but hydrologists say the usual predictive models can be thrown out the window. Water availability may never return to what it once was, there or in California for that matter. Cape Town's con-sumption is down to half the more than billion litres per day it once was, but that didn't prevent authorities from declaring a state of national disaster this week.

So now some are reconsidering that expanse of blue but salted water surrounding the urban archipelago. Albeit expensive, desalination plans may be the way to go in the future. “The diversification of our water sources would have helped a lot earlier,” University of Cape Town scientist Kevin Winter told Wired. Small scale desalination plants will at first provide some 4 million of the 160 million gallons of water the city gulps every day, an expensive yet necessary solution in these times of crisis.

But this may improve in time. “Desalination techno-logy is going to change considerably in the coming years,” Winter says. “I think what the city is currently doing right now is to go slowly with its experiments and it will start to ratchet those up in time.” And the country involved in the most cases of water wars, Israel, may actually have a few useful lessons, besides fighting wars, to provide.

The Jewish state, which borders the Dead Sea and land parts of which are notoriously salty, is now producing more freshwater than it needs. “It kind of depends how bad you need the water,” says Amy Childress of the University of Southern California. “And that’s exactly where South Africa is.” The country and city are finally trying to catch up doing what it should have been doing, and that is diversifying water sources. Others are going to some length trying to do the same thing, especially mega power China.

By some accounts Beijing is looking at relying on recycled water from sewage treatment plants, not for drinking but to clean roads and water gardens. The city has for years had strict water quotas. Others are looking deep to find solutions. The United Nations says 23 million cubic kilometres of water lie in the world's underground aquifers and improvements in drilling technology may one day make this much needed blue gold available. But until then Cape Town and the continent is at the mercy of Mother Nature and rainfall.

FOR GAYS, LIVING DANGEROUSLY

Located near a church in the Central Java city of Yogyakarta, the hotel had many of the usually listed restrictions posted on a sign outside. The translated version could make some English speakers smile with amusement, such as: “Drunk before inside probibited" and "Against taking... all of drugs".

And then this: “No womanish and manish please.” Even in tolerant Indonesia, which prides itself of its “unity in diversity,” some well paying patrons were not welcome due to their sexual orientation. And this was over a decade ago, before the screws started tightening against the country’s LGBTQ community in 2016.

Two years on, concerns across Asia have been rising as Jakarta ponders draft laws that could criminalize same sex activities, to the point of also threatening sex outside marriage. The road here has been a long and frightening one starting in January 2016 with a single outrageous tweet: that of an education minister saying he wanted to ban LGBT student groups from university campuses.

While this may have sparked outrage and a tide of condemnation elsewhere, it was met with a flood of support in the form of anti-LGBT vitriol, says Kyle Knight of Human Rights Watch.  As a result over 300 Indonesians were arrested last year for alleged gay behaviour, the May raid of a popular gay sauna leading some to be sentenced to years in prison.

Vigilantes have also often taken the law into their own hands, forcibly entering an apartment in Aceh in March 2016, accusing tenants of  carrying out same sex relations, a charge for which their were publicly flogged under regional sharia law. The direction the country has been taking has caused concerns regionally and overseas.

ASEAN lawmakers produced a joint statement in early February calling the proposed laws “a blatant violation of all the Indonesians' rights to privacy and their fundamental liberties.” In Canada MP Randall Garrison, an openly gay politician who lived in the country with his partner, drew attention to the law and asked the prime minister to join him expressing concern “about the emerging campaigns of hatred and violence directed at the LGBT community.”

Sadly neighbor Malaysia has been going down the same road. Activists are criticizing what they call the intolerant treatment of LGBT people by the media after one publication published a check list on "how to spot a gay". This comes after a year of deadly incidents against LGBT members at a time of growing influence by conservative Islam in  government ranks.

Malaysia's deputy interior minister attacked Walt Disney last year after it refused to cut a gay scene in Beauty and the Beast as requested by the country's censorship board, and one government youth video competition sought to discuss  the "prevention and conse-quences of being gay."


THE RED MENACE

As the world cools down its level of alert over North Korea in the lead up to the opening ceremonies in Pyeongchang some European countries are boosting their defense systems against a more familiar and regional power.

Having chased quite a few Soviet submarines around Stockholm’s archipelago during the Cold War, it's fair to say Sweden has often been wary of Moscow’s influence in the region, but its latest defense push has been a regional wake up call on the risk of modern day Russian intervention, especially in an often macho tainted electoral year. It’s not alone.

Days after its RAF fighters chased Russian bombers out of its skies Great Britain announced it was beefing up defenses to deter any aggression Vladimir Putin may have  in mind, while  Washington’s latest defense analysis made plain the formidable foes that are Russia and China, not terrorism, constituted the greatest threat to the homeland. These countries are “the real challenge” facing the US military according to the administration’s national defense strategy.

“Inter-state strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the primary concern in US national security,” it wrote, noting these priorities would “require both increased and sustained investment.” For neutral Sweden the Russian bear is a much closer threat as it is gearing up to prepare its citizens for “crisis and catastrophes in peacetime, but also for different kinds of attacks on society and Sweden” and reinstate conscription about eight years after it ended it.

Sweden, home to an impressive defense industry despite its modest size, boosted its military budget by $720 million over five years three years ago but is short in terms of recruitment numbers, missing about 1000 full time troop leaders in various armed service branches. London meanwhile is also growing wary its ability to respond to threats “will be eroded if we don’t keep up with our adversaries.” And Russia has been boosting its military and nuclear capabilities, its latest war games in the fall showing the continent its might on Europe’s doorstep.

Great Britain’s military was cut after the financial crisis, and the British army may be facing another round of cuts, sparking concern amid the ranks. “The time to address these threats is now, we cannot afford to sit back,” chief of the general staff Nick Carter said in a speech. The threats are also growing in cyberspace, he added, stressing “we have seen how cyber warfare can be both waged in the battlefield and to disrupt normal people’s lives.”

Moscow treated claims by Britain's defense secretary, Gavin Williamson, that it could cause “thousands and thousands and thousands” of deaths with attacks crippling  the UK's infrastructure and energy supply with derision, calling it a scenario straight out of a Monty Python sketch. Williamson had "lost his grasp on reason," a spokesman for the Russian defense ministry said.

The secretary had said a Russian offensive wouldn't come in the form of something that could have been expected in the previous century. "The plan for the Russians won't be for landing craft to appear in the South Bay in Scarborough, and off Brighton Beach," he said. "They are going to be thinking, 'How can we just cause so much pain to Britain? Damage its economy, rip its infrastructure apart, actually cause thousands and thousands and thousands of deaths, but actually have an element of creating total chaos within the country.'"

This could come in the way of a rocket launch or cyber attack, he noted.  More than ever the great power rivals of China, Russia and the United States, which seeks to boost its defense budget to over $700 billion under Trump, are engaged in a high end high technology race that will make all the difference on the battlefield, focusing on zones of regional influence, according to the Economist, such as Ukraine and the South China Sea.

Old fashioned methods, such as arms sales, are also developing these spheres, one that is extending to Africa, Russia having directed a recent shipment to the Central African Republic. Russia has also been cosying up to countries of the Caribbean, from Grenada to ideological ally Cuba. Recently Washington added new sanctions against Russia for its continued occupation of Crimea. "The US government is committed to maintaining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and to targeting those who attempt to undermine the Minsk agreements," Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said in a statement.

"Those who provide goods, services, or material support to individuals and entities sanctioned by the United States for their activities in Ukraine are engaging in behavior that could expose them to US sanctions." Sanctions were also levelled against senior leaders of two Ukrainian separatist groups, the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic and supporters. Nothing whips up nationalism like an election.

As the U.S. was also considering sanctions against Russia for meddling in the 2016 presidential election, Moscow warned this would be tantamount to interfering in its own election. Doubling the irony was the fact the current U.S. president is seen as having heavily benefited from Russian interference. The CIA director told the BBC this week that Russia was expected to target this year's mid-term U.S. elections, and votes in other parts of the world. Mike Pompeo also said he was just as concerned about China's abilities to influence the West covertly.

Tensions are further fueled by military dog fights in the open skies. This week another close encounter was registered between a plane from a NATO country and a Russian fighter, when the latter came within five feet of a US Navy plane over the Black Sea. Russia has been tightening its watch of the zone even since it grabbed Crimea, and this is only the latest close encounter after U.S. jets intercepted Russian fighters over Syria last December, all potential flash points between prodding rivals.

TRISTE POLOGNE

Le jour international de commémoration de la Shoah, le musée de l’histoire des juifs polonais et son impressionnant monument au centre de Varsovie étaient la scène de cérémonies touchantes, le site ayant été celui du ghetto si tragiquement liquidé, une des horreurs du régime nazi.

Mais une autre tragédie engouffre le pays ces derniers temps. Des manifestations de neo-nazis ont occupé les rues de la vieille capitale, et le gouvernement de centre droite a présenté une loi controversée sur la Shoah 75 ans après le soulèvement du ghetto.

Cette loi pénalise “l’attribution à la nation ou à l’état polonais, en dépit des faits, de crimes contre l’humanité”, ce qui a semé la consternation de Jérusalem à Washington. Le président Andrzej Duda a quant à lui demandé à la cour constitutionnelle d’examiner la loi, mais l’indépendance de la cour laissant à désirer en raison de l’influence du parti au pouvoir, cela n’a rien fait pour rassurer des capitales "déçues" par la loi.

Selon plusieurs observateurs celle-ci menace la liberté d’expression, à une époque où l’anti-sémitisme prend de l’ampleur dans ce pays qui sous l’occupation a perdu six millions de ses citoyens, et tente de blanchir la tragique histoire de la Pologne. La loi prévoit trois ans de prison pour toute personne désignant de «camps de la mort polonais» les camps de concentration de la deuxième guerre mondiale.

Le projet de loi ne date pas d'hier mais a été déterré par les ultranationalistes au pouvoir. Les crimes haineux ont connu une croissance alarmante au pays, une augmentation de 40% en deux ans, puis le Conseil contre la discrimination raciale, la xénophobie et l’intolérance a été aboli.

Cette vague xénophobe récente se serait même emparée de la télévision d’état, selon des observateurs, et aurait connu ses départs lors de la crise des réfugiés de 2015 et la prise au pouvoir des ultra conservateurs du parti Droit et justice. En août dernier le congrès polonais s’étonnait même de “l’absence de préoccupation étonnante du gouvernement de la Pologne envers la croissance et la normalisation de la rhétorique anti sémite et xénophobe dans le pays”.

Cette semaine l'ancien premier ministre Jaroslaw Kaczynski faisait appel au rejet de l'anti sémitisme tout en justifiant la loi controversée. «Aujour-d’hui, les ennemis de la Pologne, on pourrait dire le diable, nous souffle une très mauvaise recette, une grave maladie de l’âme, de l’esprit… Cette maladie est l’anti sémitisme. Nous devons le rejeter, le rejeter résolument, dit-il. Mais cela ne veut pas dire que nous devons donner raison à ceux, qu’ils soient Juifs ou Polonais » qui insultent la Pologne.

« Nous devons défendre la vérité sur ce qui s’est passé en Pologne pendant la deuxième guerre mondiale», ajouta-t-il devant ses partisans. Le premier ministre Mateusz Morawiecki tentait également de calmer le jeu. «Je veux inviter chaque personne à contribuer à une pensée positive... d'éviter des déclarations anti sémites, parce qu'elles nourrissent nos enemis et nos adversaires, dit-il. Il faut l'éviter comme la peste, même les blagues bêtes et non nécessaires. Plus important, expliquons ensemble comment les choses se sont passées."

Mais légiférer ce genre de discussion n'est pas la bonne marche à suivre selon Human Rights Watch. "Plutôt que criminaliser la discussion de ces crimes odieux le gouvernement devrait créer un environnement propre au débat public, où des arguments vérifiés peuvent être avancés sans crainte de représailles." Ce qui semble loin d'être le cas de nos jours.

UGLY IN THE MALDIVES

Known for its pristine beaches, perfect tropical weather and exclusive resorts, the paradise island nation of the Maldives nevertheless has been developing an ugly side over the years, political as you may suspect.

The idyllic picture suffered a bit when it found itself in the path of the 2004 tsunami and later became a poster nation of rising oceans and global warming, under president Mohamed Nasheen, but these were actually much more pleasant days.

They came to an end when the nation’s first and only democratically elected leader was deposed in a coup in 2012, and democracy there has encountered rough waters since. His successor, the current president, was elected in a controversial run off election in 2013.

Recently, the ship has taken on water and is sinking in a typhoon of an international criticism as president Abdullah Yameen has faced accusations of becoming a full time autocrat after declaring a state of emergency and arresting two Supreme Court judges who had recently called the arrest and conviction of opposition figures invalid.

Under pressure the remaining three judges reversed the ruling, causing observers to fear the direction the atoll is taking. “The world’s eyes are on the Maldives right now,” said Amnesty international’s Biraj Patnaik. “A state of emergency cannot be used to carry out what appears to be a purge of the Supreme Court and the opposition.”

But little seems to stand in Yameen’s way, certainly not family ties after he arrested former president Maumoon Gayoom, who happened to be a half brother, in the course of his actions. “We are on a path to completely destroying democracy,” decried Ahmed Tholal of Transparency Maldives, telling the New York Times the latest actions amounted to a “military takeover.”

The country was politically stable until the end of a 30-year autocratic rule by Gayoom, who had been Asia's longest serving ruler. Two years ago Yameen's Vice President Ahmed Adeeb was convicted of plotting to assassinate his superior after an incident on the president's boat.

That curious year the leader of the MDP opposition party was jailed under panned anti-terror laws, the government imposing a state of emergency ahead of expected mass opposition protests. The latest crisis occurred when the courts  overturned terrorism and corruption convictions against nine high-profile politicians, including the exiled former president Nasheed.

The country's attorney general accused the top court of trying to remove Yameen. But opposition parties called the statement "an unconstitutional, highly illegal, and dangerous attempt" to usurp the powers of the country's courts.


DEADLY AFGHANISTAN

Now that Osama bin Laden is dead, now that ISIS is in retreat and most foreign troops are gone, will it matter? The deadly weekend attack of a packed Kabul street killing over 100, the bloodiest in a recent string of attacks which included the targeting of foreigners in a hotel the week before, was the latest illustration of the deteriorating security situation in the Afghan capital.

What does this say about the much more lawless rest of the country? Large portions of it are under the control of the Taleban, still 17 years after the international military effort against the Islamist group, which claimed responsibility for the attack and that of a hotel, killing 22, and especially targeting foreigners, the previous week.

The Red Cross called the use of a bomb laden ambulance to carry out the attack “harrowing”. According to authorities the plotters managed to get through to checkpoints by claiming they were bringing a patient to a hospital in the highly secured zone. This was the deadliest attack since a suicide bomb killed 150 in May. In October 176 people were killed in a single week of violence across the country.

In January, there had been over 50 victims of attacks leading up to the devastating ambulance explosion. Despite the many civilian casualties security forces have been bearing the brunt of attacks in the last few years, another attack claiming a dozen police this week. Analyst Haroun Mir told the BBC the endemic corruption in government is undermining the work of the security forces.

"You are still seeing a serious political crisis in the country and the issue of bad government and corruption has not be resolved," he said. "Because of these tremendous challenges and this continuing corruption at the highest level of leadership, it has undermined the effectiveness of the Afghan security forces."

The latter are struggling to contain the Taleban, leading the U.S. to nearly double its presence over the last year. From 8,500 forces, mainly there to train Afghan soldiers, a surge announced by Trump last fall looks to bring the current 11,000 up to 15,000, embedding military advisers on the front lines with the struggling Afghan army, further prolonging U.S. presence in the war, America's longest military involvement in history.

Assisted by a drone program determined to prevent the development of any large scale training camps, the likes of which allowed al-Qaida to develop, the renewed push, spearheaded by U.S. brigades specifically designed to advise and assist foreign armies, isn't convincing everyone it will deliver greater security.

“Any idea that these teams are going to come in and radically change things is a huge overexpectation,” David Sedney, a former senior Pentagon official told Politico. “I think they will make a difference, but what degree of difference — that we won’t know for several years, which is the time frame it takes with an institution as fragile and flawed as the Afghan National Army, which we partially trained, partially abandoned and are now coming back to.” 

And leaving would hardly be an option, notes Foreign Affairs, considering the stakes. "A total U.S. departure, which would essentially signal an open defeat, would boost the morale of the jihadists... (After the Soviets left) a victory over yet another superpower would provide them with a tremendous psychological boost." In the mean time there is every indication ISIS, which has claimed some of the Afghan attacks, and the Taleban, are in a bloody duel to come out on top in the endless conflict.


LA DEMOCRATIE EN PERIL?

Presque trente ans depuis la chute du mur, la démocratie est en déclin à travers le monde et 2017 a été particulièrement dur envers les libertés politiques et civiles à travers la planète. Évidemment lorsqu’un champion des libertés en prend un coup, c’est le globe entier qui souffre. Qu’en pensez-vous M Fukuyama?

Alors qu’il s’agissait de la douzième année de déclin de suite de l’index de Freedom House sur les droits et libertés à travers le monde, pas moins de 71 pays ont regressé à ce chapitre l’an dernier, en faisant le pire en dix ans.

Le déclin de l’empire américain a notamment fragilisé sa crédibilité à titre de champion des droits de l’homme, selon Freedom House, qui note le manque de transparence et de distinction entre les affaires personnelles du président et sa fonction, le choix de membres de sa famille pour remplir des postes à la Maison Blanche et ses dures paroles envers les médias.

Les géant américain reste un pays de libertés, mais fragilisé par un an de présidence Trump. L'Economist Intelligence Unit va encore plus loin, le classant à titre de démocratie réduite, et ce depuis quelques années déjà. C'est en fait sous la présidence Obama que les Etats-Unis auraient glissé parmi les démocraties imparfaites, exclus du club de 35 pays, dont le Canada et tous les pays nordiques, qui trônent au palmarès.

Mais d’autres pays ont également glissé l'an dernier, notamment une Turquie prise dans la névrose qui a suivi le putsch raté, une République centrafricaine  encore marquée par la violence et un Venezuela plongé au cœur d’une terrible crise dont le président a le culot de se présenter aux urnes cette année.

Au plus creux du puits, malheureusement, les jeunes pays que sont l’Érythrée et le Sud Soudan sans parler de la Syrie et de la Corée du Nord mais aussi de l’Arabie saoudite, qui promet des réformes importantes. Trente cinq pays ont changé pour le mieux cependant, des progrès notables ayant été enregistrés en Gambie suite à l’élection, à l’origine contestée, d’Adama Barrow, et en Ouganda, grâce au courage des médias traditionnels et sociaux.

Même le Timor, né dans la tourmente, a franchi le seuil des états libres grâce aux élections de 2017. La tragédie du Myanmar et les influences de pays non démocratiques comme la Russie et la Chine font malheureusement de 2017 une année de recul à l’échelle mondiale, note Freedom House, leurs propagandes étendant leurs tentacules des États Unis en Australie en passant par Londres et Paris.

TENSIONS DANS LA POUDRIERE


Alors que le Kosovo se prépare à fêter le dixième anniversaire de sa déclaration d’indépendance, l’assassinat d’un politicien serbe à Mitrovica, ville de toutes les divisions, est venu aggraver les tensions qui planent sur la région.

Comme le lien de pierre de la ville qui fut reconstruit après la guerre, Olivier Ivanovic se voulait un pont entre les communautés, un politicien modéré tentant de rassembler les Kosovars serbes et albanais résistant à la ligne dure qu’aurait souhaité Belgrade pour les représentants de sa minorité dans un état qu’elle ne reconnaît d’ailleurs pas.

Plus de cent pays ont reconnu cette région albanophone lors-qu’elle a déclaré son indépendance en février 2008 mais pour les Serbes de l’ex province de la Serbie le conflit qui a fait 13000 morts est loin d’être oublié, tout comme le fait que plusieurs sites d’importance  historique ont été annexés par ce nouvel état.

Le crime revêt un potentiel de déstabilisation de la région, selon des analystes, d’autant plus qu’il s’agit d’une année électorale en Serbie, donc proie aux élans nationalistes. L’incident a jeté un froid sur les longs efforts de pacification en cours, les représentants des deux communautés interrompant le dialogue de normalisation des relations sous l’égide de l’UE.

Le président kosovar Hashim Thaci de son côté a condamné l’assassinat, exigeant que la justice s’empare de l’affaire pour écrouer le ou les coupables. Alors que Belgrade soupçonne l’implication de terroristes albanais les premiers indices privilégient celle de groupes criminels serbes, très présents dans le nord du territoire.

Ivanovic avait d’ailleurs fait l’objet d’intimidation de la part des nationalistes des enclaves serbes du Kosovo, qui l’ont déjà traité de “traître” et de “collaborateur des Albanais”. L’été dernier sa voiture avait été incendiée.

Les deux communautés sont sur les dents alors que les premières inculpations doivent être dévoilées par le tribunal spécial sur les crimes de guerre commis au Kosovo entre 1998 et 2000. Thaci , passible d’être mentionné, est à la tête d’une fragile minorité après que l’UCK ait réussi de justesse de conserver le pouvoir lors des législatives de juin.

Moscou, alliée de Belgrade, est accusée par Pristina de chercher à destabiliser le Kosovo en   accusant le régime et l'Occident d'avoir "quelque-chose à cacher sur le meurtre." L’économie du Kosovo est souffrante, plus d’un quart des Kosovars étant au chômage  tandis que le taux de pauvreté est tout juste sous la barre des 30%.

PROTESTING FOOD PRICES

Protests against rising food prices and unemployment have not only rocked Iran but countries of North Africa as well as they welcomed the new year, including the tiny country which sparked the Arab Spring. In reality protests have been commonplace since the 2011 revolution in Tunisia which led to the ouster of strongman Ben Ali.

Seven years later familiar areas of the country are rioting against food prices and high unemployment, including Sidi Bouzid, where Mohammed Bouazizi took his life, launching revolution.

The scene this month was nothing like the outbreak of 2011 but did lead to the arrest of hundreds and the death of at least one person under unclear circumstances. Authorities deny the 43 year old in the town of Tebourba was killed as a result of police action as authorities faced stones and Molotov cocktails.

“The situation was already difficult and then came a budget bill making things even harder and life more difficult," Tunisian opposition representative Amor Cherni tells France 24. “We warned them of the disastrous impact this would have on social conditions.” Finance Minister Ridha Chalghoum says the bill did not impact basic necessities while the interior minister said protests, which are legal, have degenerated into gratuitous acts of violence and looting.

But observers say authorities have been using some of the incidents as pretext to crack down on dissent. “While it is legitimate to arrest those who have committed violence, it is unacceptable to see random arrests and detentions," said Amna Guellali, Tunisia researcher at Human Rights Watch.

"[Recent] events should not constitute a pretext for a crackdown on social movements and activists.” Cherni says citizens who lead the revolution to lead better lives are facing more hardships. “What we expected was an improvement and that didn’t happen,” he says, blaming widespread corru-ption. This has also been the complaint in Iran since the end of sanctions and in Sudan as well.

Protests over bread prices have also erupted in that country after the government removed food subsidies in a recent austerity package. The country has less tolerance for protest than Tunisia and has been cracking down violently, leading to at least one death and the arrest of an opposition politician.

Months after the U.S. lifted sanctions Sudan is trying to conduct economic reforms but faces high inflation and a shortage of foreign currency hampering trade while unemployment runs at around 20%.

Still wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court over atrocities in Darfur, leader Omar Bashir has cracked down on critical media outlets reporting on the troubles and those unsup-portive of austerity measures. Both Tunisia and Sudan have introduced the controversial austerity measures in an effort to sanitize finances to satisfy the IMF's conditions for continued funding. Since the revolution food prices have increased by about 8% a year in Tunisia, while wages have remained relatively unchan-ged.

As another week of protest came to an end and Tunisians marked the seventh anniversary of the 2011 revolution, authorities vowed to conduct a wave of reforms that would consider measures for the poor such as minimum wage and health care for all, but urged moderation as "your country has limited means." President Beji Caid Essebsi conceded overall that "the social and political climate isn't good" in Tunisia.

SPORTS DIPLOMATIQUES

THAT ELUSIVE PEACE

Years after Colombia reached a deal with its largest rebel group, peace has moved forward but remains a work in progress is the South American country.

There was a shocking reminder of this when president Juan Manual Santos, who was given the Nobel peace prize for reaching peace with the Revolutionary armed forces of Colombia (FARC) , recalled his envoy and halted talks with another rebel group, the National liberation army (ELN) after it recently ended a ceasefire.

Attacks on an oil pipeline and an army base this month scuttled talks scheduled for Quito. This came hours after the ceasefire ended and showed the on-again off-again nature of negotiations with the country’s remaining recalcitrant rebel group. ELN only engaged in peace talks in February of 2017, nearly a year after saying it would do so, but agreed to a ceasefire in September.

Observers attribute challenges in dealing with the group to its diffuse command structure, but the president remains committed to achieving peace as part of his legacy before he leaves office later in 2018. Members of FARC meanwhile are transitioning to politics.

Earlier Santos had met with former FARC members praising the pace of peace efforts, calling it “the most complex peace agreement witnessed by the world in the last 30 years.” But his counterpart, now heading the Revolutionary alternative common force political party, criticized the government for its failure to uphold part of the peace deal. Both agreed efforts should continue however.

The stalled ELN peace effort prompted the UN Secretary General to head to Bogotá recently to encourage its resumption. “There is no justification for the armed conflict in Colombia to continue,” said Antonio Guterres at the end of his visit, warning of the risks to the peace process after the latest flare-up. Santos may very well end his tenure, the last he is allowed under the constitution, without having attained true peace in Colombia.

The country heads to the polls this Spring a fragmented nation, in part due to the polarizing deal with FARC, shattering the coalition in place when Santos came to power in 2010. An economic slowdown and probe into illegal campaign financing have reduced his popularity considerably in the twilight of his presidency, leaving him without a heir to defend his legacy.

Leading a wide field of independent candidates is the governor of Antioquia, enviroment-friendly Sergio Fajardo. While he is supportive of the FARC deal, the small structure of his party could make him "too weak to move forward on critical issues such as peace negotiations with the ELN," according to a Stratfor analysis. Any newcomer would find daunting the task of succeeding where Santos has failed - with great frustration.

But the ELN quagmire also risks affecting the outcome of FARC talks. “The impact of not achieving a deal with the ELN on the current peace agreement [with FARC] would be huge,” political analyst Catalina Giron told the Washington Post. “It’s especially a risk for commitments related to reintegration of FARC fighters there back into civilian life.”

So there is quite a lot riding on the efforts to rein in ELN, and no lack of challenges for any incoming administration, chief among them the need to sweep clean the second most mine-infested country on the face of the Earth

CANADA WINS GOLD

Eager to avenge its heartbreak shootout loss in the finals last year on home ice, Team Canada entered the juniors tournament in Buffalo on a furious pace, outscoring its opponents 21-6 and suffering a single loss in the opening round, to its nemesis, Team USA, in an outdoor game 4-3 in overtime.

By the time they disposed of Switzerland 8-2 and Czechia 7-2 to return to the gold medal game, the 16-time champions learned they would not be meeting the hosts in the final, felled by the Tre Kronors 4-2 in a stunning semifinal. This has been a lean decade for Team Canada, only capturing the tournament in 2015 previously after a five-year drought. 

But this has been healthy for the junior hockey tournament, which saw three finals takes place since 2010 without either Canada or the U.S. Undefeated Sweden had a score to settle with Canada, having been battered 5-1 the last time these two team met in the finals in 2009.

The Tre Kronor were determined to make a game out of it, outshooting Canada and keeping pace after the team in red broke the ice in the second period. More importantly, it would deny a team with a 57% score rate in the powerplay all five men advantages, tying the game 1-1 a man short, its third consecutive goal shorthanded after taking two in the upset against the Americans.

In the third Sweden threatened anew, hitting the post and coming just short of taking the lead. With less than two minutes to go it looked like the two would have to settle it in extra time when centre Tyler Steenbergen decided to score his first goal, putting Canada on the edge of glory. This came moments later when Team Canada's Alex Formenton scored in an empty net, sending the red and white crowd packing Buffalo arena into a frenzy.

"The guys were giving me a hard time for not scoring during the tournament, but I think they're pretty happy right now," said Steenbergen after the game. "This is unbelievable."  Goalie Carter Hart,  one of the winnigest goalies in Team Canada history, stopped 35 shots and was named tournament MVP while Drake Batherson of the Quebec junior league, who was key in the play leading to the winning goal, shared the top of the scoring board, on a team with 15 different goal scorers where nearly every player collected at least one point.

MANIFESTATIONS EN IRAN

Comme si une bisbille internationale sur le nucléaire, la guerre chaude en Syrie et au Yémen et froide avec le monde arabe n’étaient pas assez, la république islamique se voit plongée dans une rare crise interne aux origines plutôt familières, le prix des denrées.

Mais y a-t-il vraiment une perspective de printemps perse? Les derniers éclats ont fait plus de 20 morts depuis la multiplication des manifes-tations contre le régime; non seulement la présidence de Hassan Rohani, mais la direction suprême des ayatollahs.

Au coeur des éclats Rohani critiquait "la violence et la destruction de biens publics" mais reconnaissait le besoin de créer "un espace pour que les partisans de la révolution et le peuple puissent exprimer leurs inquiétudes quoti-diennes". Une brèche pour l'opposition après les pires manifestations en neuf ans?

"Critiquer est totalement différent de l'utilisation de la violence et de la destruction des biens publics, dit-il. Nous accueillons positivement les critiques". Mais cette citation laissait à désirer après des années de persécution et de violences contre les opposants du pouvoir, qui se sont retrouvés soit en prison, soit en exil.

Le régime limitait l'accès aux médias sociaux, qui comme lors du printemps arabe avaient permis aux manifestants de s'organiser et de coordonner leurs actions. Les applications Instagram et Telegram ont notamment été resserrées pour "maintenir la tranquilité" mais celle-ci était bien absente à Téhéran et dans plusieurs autres villes du pays où les manifestants exigeaient ouvertement la fin du régime des mollahs et la "mort du dictateur". Les gardes révolutionnaires ont nié être responsables des victimes lors des éclats mais menaçaient les manifestants de gestes violents.

Plus de 500 personnes auraient été arrêtées depuis le début des manifestations, que le pouvoir accuse des agents étrangers d'avoir provoqué pour déstabiliser le régime. L'appui du président américain en faveur des protestations a rapidement été critiqué par Rohani. "Ce monsieur aux États-Unis, qui veut monter de la sympathie à l'égard du peuple iranien, oublie qu'il l'a traité de terroriste (...)", dit-il, ajoutant que Trump "n'a pas le droit de compatir avec le peuple iranien".

Les dernières grandes manifestations de ce genre avaient en 2009 causé la mort de centaines de personnes après la ré-élection contestée du conservateur Ahmedinejad à la présidentielle, lançant le "mouvement vert" iranien. Mais l'élection de présidents épousant une ligne moins dure, comme celle de Khatami lors des années 90, n'avait que rappelé la soumission du chef de l'état à celle du chef spirituel et du régime des mollahs, fortement critiqués par les manifestants dont certains osaient parler d'un retour de la monarchie.

Les causes plus profondes de la crise actuelle mettent en cause la corruption aux plus hautes instances et le manque d'amélioration du sort des citoyens malgré la levée de certaines sanctions depuis 2015. "L'accord nucléaire a l'appui du public mais on s'attendait à plus de développement en consé-quence," résume Trita Parsi du Conseil national irano américain.

Aussi l'investissement étranger ne s'est pas concrétisé comme prévu alors que le pouvoir maintient la ligne dure contre ses citoyens. Mais l'opposition reste fragmentaire et les manifestations ne connaissent pas les nombres importants de 2009.

Celles-ci ont pu quand même étaler le catalogue des revendications de la population iranienne, allant du chômage à l'égalité des femmes. Et c'est sans parler du gaspillage de tous ces conflits coûteux et de l'appui du Hezbollah. De son propre aveu Rohani avouait "nous ne connaissons pas de défi plus important que celui du chômage. Notre économie a besoin d'une chirurgie corrective."

Mais plusieurs revendiquent également une chirurgie politique et sociale presque 40 ans après la révolution iranienne.

LES CATHOS DANS LA RUE

Immense pays aux divisions internes importantes, le Congo peut cependant éviter les clivages religieux qui divisent certains pays de la région, comme le Nigeria. Et parce que le christianisme est de loin la religion la plus importante, lorsque le clergé a mobilisé des foules pour marquer l’anniversaire de la signature d’un accord, sous l’égide des évêques, prévoyant des élections, les manifestations contestant la candidature du président Kabila à sa propre succession ont été importantes et sévèrement réprimées.

Une dizaine de personnes ont été tuées et plusieurs arrêtés au début de l’année lors de ces mouvements et des policiers sont même entrés dans des églises pour mettre fin à la contestation. Les forces de l’ordre auraient tiré en l’air en faisant usage du gaz lacrymogène pour disperser les manifestants, tuant quelques participants par balles.

L'opposition et des membres d’autres religions ne se sont pas laissés intimider pour autant par le pouvoir, qui a interdit toute participation et interrompu parfois l’accès à internet pour empêcher la coordination des rassemblements. Portant des bibles, chapelets ou crucifix et menés par des enfants de cœur, les manifestants ont demandé au président de ne pas se présenter à la prochaine présidentielle, repoussée à la fin de l'année.

Des forces de l’ordre furent postées à l’extérieur des lieux saints mais érigèrent également des barrages, le pouvoir affirmant avoir été informé de “distribution d’armes... pour s’en prendre à la paisible population et à diverses populations publiques.” L’archévêque de Kinshasa a quant à lui qualifié de “barbarie” les interventions policières musclées du régime, dont le président est en poste depuis 2001.

“Nous avons fait le choix de nous mobiliser pour que le régime tienne ses engagements et que les choses changent,explique à La Croix Thierry Nlandu Mayamba, membre du Comité laïc de coordination du diocèse de Kinshasa. Un changement n’exclut pas des sacrifices mais quand on est face à un régime au comportement dictatorial la seule issue demeure la protestation.”

Aussi, ajoute-t-il, il peut paraître injuste qu' “on fait appel à l’église (en 2016) parce que les représentants politiques avaient échoué à trouver une solution de sortie de crise... en revanche quand elle commence à dénoncer les anomalies elle est stigmatisée et diabolisée“. En fin de compte “la contestation ne dépend pas des évêques , elle continuera tant qu’il y aura des Congolais qui souffrent.”

Cette souffrance et cette crise rappellent les grandes transitions du passé, selon Kris Berwouts, auteur de “Congo’s violent peace”. "La RDC traverse une grave crise politique, économique et financière qui ressemble à bien des égards à la fin du régime de Mobutu dans les années 1990, dit-il.

L’État ne fonctionne plus à l’échelon local, quand il n’a pas tout simplement disparu, et ne parvient pas davantage à réguler les conflits. Les institutions se désagrègent. La plupart des acteurs institutionnels ont perdu leur légitimité, leur cohésion et leur crédibilité... L'Eglise est le seul acteur encore debout".

QUELS CHANGEMENTS A CUBA?

En cette soixantième année de la révolution les Castro sont en veille de tirer leur révérence, mais une retraite est-elle véritablement envi-sagée par Raoul, frère du héros révolutionnaire? Le paysage permet encore mal  d'imaginer cette île sans un comandante de la famille.

A Matanzas, à l’est de La Havane, un immense panneau d’affiche montre encore un Fidel triomphant, le poing levé, à la barre d’un peuple “laborieux et révolutionnaire.” Un peu plus loin une autre enseigne près de la gare de bus le montre en compagnie de son frère et d’Hugo Chavez. Le survivant du trio Marxiste est prêt lui aussi à quitter le gouvernail, du moins en partie.

La date du départ a été reportée de février en avril lorsque le vice président Miguel Diaz-Canel tentera de poursuivre la ligne castriste, mais plusieurs observateurs sont de l’avis que Raoul, qui conservera sa chefferie du Parti communiste, gardera les rênes du pouvoir dix ans après avoir remplacé son frère à la présidence.

En attendant rien pour encourager les réformes économiques dont le pays a tant besoin, puisque des mesures annoncées en décembre  allaient dans le sens contraire, selon certains observateurs. “Les mesures économiques annoncées suggèrent un ralentissement des réformes économiques entrées en vigueur entre 2010 et 2016,” fait remarquer Michael Bustamante de la Florida international university.

En plus d’avoir souffert après le passage d'un ouragan en 2017, qui explique selon le pouvoir le délai de la transition, le pays doit composer avec la baisse de l’aide vénézuélienne, en raison de la crise que traverse cet autre pays, ainsi que la ligne dure de Washington, qui a posé le frein sur les projets d’ouverture de la présidence Obama.

Aussi les tensions sont elles remontées d'un cran après une série de mystérieuses attaques contre des diplomates américains et canadiens. Entre fin 2016 et fin 2017 quelques 22 envoyés américains avaient subi des lésions dont des pertes d’audition, des vertiges et des maux de tête.

La cause n’a pas été identifiée mais Washington, après avoir rapatrié la moitié de son personnel, a expulsé 15 diplomates cubains “en raison de l’incapacité de Cuba de prendre les mesures appropriées pour protéger nos diplomates.” Les relations diplomatiques ont cependant été maintenues et ni le FBI ni les autorités canadiennes ne peuvent confirmer pour l'heure la thèse de l'attaque sonore des diplomates.

On n'écarte pas cependant que des «actes criminels» puissent être à l’origine des «symptômes inhabituels» ayant nécessité des soins médicaux pour huit membres de familles de diplomates canadiens en poste à Cuba. Pour ce qui est des expulsions américaines, La Havane n’y a vu que “la détérioration actuelle et probablement future des relations bilatérales” mais les trois pays travaillent encore étroitement pour élucier ce mystère digne d'un roman d'espionnage.

Le département d'Etat ne considère plus le pays comme terre interdite pour les touristes américains, mais tente de les dissuader de visiter l'île à 90 miles de la Floride. "Parce que la sécurité de notre personnel connait un risque et parce que nous sommes incapables d'en identifier la source, nous croyons que les citoyens américains font face à un risque et ne devraient pas voyager à Cuba," déclare un avertissement du département.

Le passage d’Irma a par ailleurs replongé dans le rouge une économie qui s’était remise de la récession et avait repris le chemin de la croissance, notamment en raison du tourisme. Mais le pays reste pauvre, la moyenne salariale étant d’environ 20$ par mois, ce qui oblige la plupart des citoyens d’arrondir les fins de mois en faisant du travail au noir, préférablement pour soutirer quelques dollars aux touristes.

En se rendant vers les fortifications du Moro très prisées par les touristes, un chauffeur de taxi montre les coins les moins reluisants de la grande capitale des Caraïbes en passant par le port, une zone qu’il se dit éviter à la tombée de la nuit, et emprunte des rues non pavées menant vers des taudis peu joyeux.

“Regardez ce quartier, dit-il en traversant le quartier de Casa Blanca, personne n’a d’eau ou d’électricité, c’est pas le beau paysage habituel des photos de La Havane.” Autre paysage peu joyeux, loin des plages et des hôtels réservés aux touristes, le triste zoo de La Havane, au sud du centre névralgique de la capitale.

Dès l’entrée un vacarme accueille les visiteurs, celui des zig zags de mini motos louées dans l’enceinte du zoo, affolant les bêtes des cages et espaces aux alentours. Le site offre le spectacle désolant de singes dans des cages trop petites et incapables de s’élancer, de rapaces nourris de carapaces pourries et puantes également incapables de voler bien loin et d’un hippopotame dans un étang si petit qu’il ne parvient pas à se submerger dans sa totalité pour fuir le chaos régnant.

Sur la berge, un crocodile circule entre les détritus, des cannettes de boisson ou des emballages quelconques jetés parmi les bêtes. Notre traitement de celles-ci n’est-il pas d’ailleurs le reflet de notre humanité? Malgré les recettes record du tourisme en 2017, environ 4,7 millions de visiteurs gonflant les caisses de l'état de l'ordre de 3 milliards de dollars, il faut penser que le zoo de la capitale ne figure pas dans la listes des priorités, les visiteurs étant majoritairement Cubains.

 D'ailleurs "les Canadiens ne viennent pas à La Havane, se désole un chauffeur de taxi, ils aiment rester sur leur plage à Varadero ou dans une autre zone touristique." Dans ce monde artificiel ils font le bonheur d'une minorité peu représentative de l'île.

BACK IN TIME?

The threat of nuclear war and rocket tests, trade disputes between North American neighbors, suspicions of Russian influence and even plans for space missions to the moon; sometimes it can feel as though entering 2018 is visiting a time capsule of the 1960s.

And nothing spells this like instructional videos on how to survive a nuclear attack, weeks after a North Korean rocket made plain that country’s strides in its nuclear program despite decades of sanctions and embargoes and weeks before South Korea hosts the Winter Olympics.

Ahead of the competition U.S. troops were carrying out drills for the eventuality of an attack during the Games but communities around the world were adapting to the new global threat stemming from Pyongyang. This month millions were to take part in evacuation drills simulating a North Korean nuclear attack in Tokyo.

Towns facing the Korean Peninsula have already conducted such drills with sirens sending citizens into shelters to seek cover. Japanese authorities also asked cities to identify all underground facilities able to shelter residents in case of attack. There as elsewhere residents are reluctant to think of the worst case scenarios of a nuclear strike, whether intentional or accidental.

“Evacuations are a sensible precaution that would help minimize casualties,” human rights campaigner Ken Kato told the Daily Telegraph. Though by some accounts Tokyo was growing as wary of Beijing as it is of Pyongyang in terms of fearing an attack.

In China an official newspaper published articles on how to cope with a nuclear attack, using cartoons offering advice on radiation exposure and what essential emergency kits to keep handy. Increasingly concerned by the the behaviour of its erratic neighbor, China has been listening to Washington’s contingencies during a possible crisis, which include the possibility of U.S. ground movement across the DMZ.

U.S. states and territories are also returning to their Cold War survival books, islands from Hawaii to Guam planning for possible emergencies, the latter providing survival videos in the event of an attack and asking viewers to pass them around for greater awareness. They include tips on how to build emergency kits filled with supplies such as non perishables, water reserves and important documents.

At the sound of an alarm residents are instructed to seek shelter in a concrete structure and keep away from windows and doors. Concerns have grown much further away. In Canada the CBC reports a plan was drafted by bureaucrats to open up bunkers on two military bases should the capital become “unviable” after an attack, this in order to ensure the “continuity of constitutional government“.

This harkens back to the construction of the Diefenbunker in the outskirts of Ottawa, now serving as Cold War museum. Experts are once again being instructed to think in Cold War terms in the event of a North Korean strike in Canada. Ottawa is however standing firm in its refusal to join the U.S. missile defence shield proposed by Washington years ago.

“After the Cold War was over we stopped thinking about those things,” notes defense expert Andrew Rasiulis. “It fell off the radar so to speak.” But others note civil preparedness would have to reach a whole new level as a nuclear blast would create an electromagnetic pulse that would down power grids over a vast area, shutting down everything from businesses to water plants.

Sean Maloney of the Royal Military College notes in a paper “critics  of civil defense programs argued that protecting government leaders  in shelters and not providing similar facilities to the population as a whole was undemocratic... designed to maintain the power elite.” Not helping calm tensions were reports Russia was building underground bunkers, not to serve as shelter but to house a growing nuclear arsenal, expecting to deploy some 8,000 warheads by 2026.

According to the Pentagon Russia is also fortifying command and control bunkers used during a nuclear conflict and possibly plans to blend conventional forces with nuclear arms, according to a US nuclear review. This was being released as the U.S. president indicated he sought “modernization and rehabili-tation” of his country’s national arsenal.

As the United Nations imposed new sanctions against the hermit kingdom a few days before Christmas, a new war of words erupted between Washington and Pyongyang, whose regime mocked the U.S. president shortly after Washington  expressed con-cerns North Korea could deploy chemical weapons on its missiles.

On new year's day, Kim Jong-Un reminded world leaders a nuclear launch button was "always on my table" and that the fact his rockets could reach the entire U.S. territory "is reality, not a threat," but added he was open to dialogue. The North Korean president also extended an olive branch to his southern neighbor, noting both countries had celebrations in store this year, the North's 70th anniversary and the South's Olympic Games: "We should melt the frozen North-South relations, thus adorning this meaningful year as a year to be specially recorded in the history of the nation," he said.

New year's messages have usually been an opportunity to calm tensions around the peninsula, and some note a small tweak from the old script. "North Korea usually ignores South Korea, maintaining the position that as a 'nuclear power' it will deal with the U.S. on its own," Daniel Bong, a research fellow at Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies told the BBC. "It appears that by engaging the South, he hopes to create an estrangement between South Korea and the U.S."

The South has proposed talks in response, as both countries re-established a hotline to connect them. More importantly the U.S. and South Korea agreed to postpone the always controversial military drills in the region until after the Olympic Games, perhaps buying a few weeks of peace.

NOUVELLE ANNEE, MEME CRISE

Nouvelle année, même crise. L’élection de décembre en Catalogne se voulait un certain retour à la normalité après les émotions de l’automne qui ont atteint leur paroxysme lorsque le gouvernement régional a été placé sous tutelle après un référendum controversé.

Mais la campagne a été tout sauf ordinaire, certains candidats nationalistes y participant à partir d’une cellule de prison ou alors qu’ils étaient en exil.

Aussi les résultats arrivaient-ils à refléter la complexité de la crise catalane: alors que les partis anti-independentistes capturaient la majorité des voix, ils restaient minoritaires au sein du parlement régional, ce qui a encouragé Carles Puidgemont, depuis son exil, à faire appel à un nouveau dialogue avec Madrid, celui qui n’avait pas eu lieu après le référendum.

L’unioniste du parti Ciudadanos voyait cependant la chose autrement, estimant que les séparatistes catalans “ne pourrons jamais parler au nom de toute la Catalogne.”

Le camp d’Ines Arrimadas venait de gagner 12 sièges de plus au parlement, le classant premier, mais ce grâce à la division du camp nationaliste; ces trois partis regroupant tout de même 70 des 135 sièges, leur donnant de quoi gouverner en tant de coalition. s’ils parviennent à s’entendre.

Car certains avaient regretté que Puidgemont n’ait pas déclaré l’indépendance dès le soir du référendum qui avait donné 90% au oui mais qui avait été boycotté par plusieurs citoyens outrés. Ce dernier est en revanche revenu à la charge: “la Catalogne veut être un état indépendant, dit-il, il s’agit là du désir des Catalans. Je crois que le plan du premier ministre ne fonctionne pas et nous devons trouver une autre manière de régler la crise”.

Selon le quotidien El Periodico “l’élection a démontré que la Catalogne est fortement divisée en deux blocs et qu’il n’y a pas de place pour les intermédiaires “. Pour la Commission européenne la situation n’avait pas changé et reste une question politique interne.

“Le résultat évident de cette élection c’est que la Catalogne n’est pas un bloc monolithique,” conclut le premier ministre Rajoy, qui a à nouveau rejeté tout  dialogue, sauf s’il engage le parti Ciudadanos.

Mais son propre parti a cependant été anéanti lors du vote régional. Puidgemont quant à lui reste ferme, une nouvelle entente doit être conclue entre Madrid et la Catalogne. “On doit changer la recette car elle ne fonctionne plus,” dit-il. Le dialogue de sourds se poursuit.

En on chiffre au milliard d'euros le coût de la crise en raison de la fuite des compagnies craintives et la baisse de la croissance. Ironique quand on pense que la puissance économique de la région avait gonflé l'argument en faveur de la séparation.

"La Catalogne avait d'habitude une croissance au dessus de la moyenne espagnole, fait remarquer le ministre des finances Luis de Guindos, mais au 4e quart elle est un fardeau."

SEEKING RE-ELECTION

In early December Vladimir Putin arguably held his first campaign reelection rally amid the troops in Syria as he announced Russia’s withdrawal from the war torn country, noting the troops had fought “brilliantly” and were returning home “victorious”.

His Mission Accomplished moment at least seemed to dispel US predictions the launch of his country’s military operations two years earlier would leave Moscow “stuck in quagmire” in a mission “doomed to fail.”

A century after the revolution projecting power works well to the domestic audience, an early lesson of the Crimean invasion.

With Mosul retaken from ISIS and the groups’ pockets in the country negligible, Moscow’s war on terror was certainly not unsuccessful, and the same could be said about its Mideast policy, looking to supply partners such as Turkey and Egypt with weaponry in an area visibly abandoned by Washington.

Moscow’s power also looks enhanced from the Russia meddling US scandal, despite Putin’s own downplaying of the collusion investigation as “delirium” and “madness” by opponents looking to target the US president.

If anything Putin’s own supportive words on Donald Trump did the latter no favours, praising “fairly serious achievements” in his first, year, this coming hours after suffering a major electoral defeat when Alabama elected its first Democrat senator in a quarter century.

In an ensuing call between the two, Trump thanked his counterpart for the remarks.  Putin also said he would run as an independent candidate for his fourth presidential bid, in order to rally the support of a number of parties, but added he “will strive for a balanced political system,” an interesting addition considering the fact that a number of political opponents have been arrested under his mandates, some even disappearing under mysterious circumstances.

It's hard to see how the coming election will do anything but rubber stamp the former spy chief. Also playing into the theme of being central to the world stage, Russia will host soccer's world cup in 2018, but one place where Russia will not be projecting its power will be in South Korea, where its Winter Olympic athletes have been prohibited from competing under its flag after the country’s national doping program was exposed and then panned by the IOC.

A SPARK IS LIT

Fifty years after parts of Jerusalem and other lands were annexed by Israel following the six day Israeli Arab war, one could hardly argue that peace had come to the Middle East.

The last months had however seen a period of relative calm in Israeli-Arab relations after a history of terror and rocket attacks, violent intifadas and military retaliation. But Washington’s announ-cement it was moving its embassy from Tel Aviv to the ancient walled city shattered whatever calm there was ahead of Christmas and Hanukkah celebrations.

Arab leaders starting with the Palestinian leader warned the US administration of the  unnecessary tensions linked to the announcement while Turkey spoke of a red line being drawn in the sand, threatening its ties to Israel and igniting fire in a region constantly on a knife’s edge.

Stating the “whole world is against” the move, Arab leaders planned an emergency summit on the issue, as the region boils with the war in Yemen and tensions between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors. “When you look at a place on the verge of an explosion you do not introduce a flame,” said Hanan Ashrawi of the PLO. President Abbas said the move would “lead us into wars that will never end."

Curiously the White House hoped the move would jump start peace, an idea which created some rare Mideast unity as it was ridiculed as much in Tehran as it was in Arab capitals, all warning that fulfilling this campaign promise would have the opposite effect. Indeed within days Palestinian areas erupted in violent protest amid cries of new intifada while US embassies around the world stood under alert.

Jordan’s king had joined a chorus of world leaders stressing that the status of Jerusalem was key to any peace deal and stability in the region. The embassy itself would not be moved for months, being a delicate security and logistics operation. No other country has an embassy in Jerusalem, a reluctance tied to Mideast peace efforts and a consensus the city’s status should be decided as part of any peace deal, not before one is reached, which would risk influencing decision making.

Canada was one country which immediately indicated it would not be following America’s lead after a decision which further isolated Washington on the world stage. The relative peace was also shattened by the first rocket launch against Israel in four months as Palestinian activists organized “days of rage” this week.

In contrast Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu praised the announcement as "historic" and "courageous" and Jerusalem mayor Nir Barkat welcomed it saying “the president is following his heart and history and saying and doing the right thing” in another sign of the Israeli Arab divide 70 years after the agreement which lead to partition of these lands.

The US president stressed “we are not taking any position on any final status issue including the specific boundaries“ which would be determined locally. Jerusalem is where the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, is located, he noted. “Peace is never beyond the grasp of those seeking to reach it,” he said, but to many this now seemed  more distant than ever.

Trump praised all three religions which consider the city sacred, oddly enough, as came into effect strict US immigration measures that were once described as a Muslim travel ban.   
     
DE RETOUR AU BERCAIL

Un drôle de parfum enrobe la politique libanaise, ou alors n’est-ce que la dose est passablement trop forte? Récemment le premier ministre Saad Hariri confirmait la suspension de sa démission surprise un mois plus tôt, qui avait outré la présidence libanaise, semé des inquiétudes de kidnapping par le régime saoudien et braqué les projecteurs sur la guerre froide que se disputent le royaume de Riyad et la république islamique. 

Hariri avait alors déclaré sa vie en danger, une constatation plutôt alarmante quand on pense au sort de son père en 2005, en sonné l’alarme sur l’influence déstabilisatrice du Hezbollah au pays. Le président Michel Aoun a plutôt accusé les Saoudiens de tenir le chef du gouvernement, qui a fait sa démission choc à Riyad, en otage, accusant le régime de manipulation et d’ingérence en politique libanaise.

C’est Aoun qui l’aurait “enjoint d’attendre” avant de présenter sa démission, “pour permettre davantage de consultations.” Passant par Paris, Hariri retourne alors à Beyrouth, accueilli par des supporters à l’occasion de la fête d’indépendance du petit pays. Le Liban reste le théâtre d’affrontements indirects entre Téhéran, dont le soutien du Hezbollah est féroce, et Riyad, les deux puissances étant déjà engagées dans la crise yéménite au sud de la péninsule d’Arabie.

Le ministre des affaires extérieures saoudien Adel Al-joubeir avait donné le ton des dernières semaines lors de la réunion extraordinaire récente de la Ligue arabe en affirmant que son pays ne resterait pas “les bras croisés” face à la politique “agressive” de Téhéran dans la région. Les deux pays ont rompu leurs relations en 2016.

Dans un pays qui en a tant besoin mais déchiré par les influences des voisins, le président Aoun a fait appel à l’unité lors des fêtes d’indépendance du 22 novembre, car la division  “provoquerait une destruction totale et n’épargnerait personne,” dit-il tout en accusant la Ligue arabe de “financer et d’entraîner des groupes terroristes”, risquant de plonger le pays du cèdre dans l’”embrasement.”

Les tensions entre Téhéran et Riyad se sont exacerbées début novembre quand un missile envoyé par les Houthis, alliés aux iraniens, a été intercepté près de la capitale saoudienne. Le ministre des affaires étrangères du Bahreïn a par ailleurs accusé le Hezbollah d’effectuer des opérations “non seulement à l’intérieur des frontières du pays mais il traverse toutes les frontières de nos nations. C’est une menace pour la sécurité nationale arabe.”

Selon le secrétaire général de la Ligue “les capitales arabes sont dans la mire des missiles balistiques de Téhéran,” ce que la république islamique nie. Le Bahreïn est particulièrement tourmenté par sa minorité chiite, qui réclame des réformes au sein du régime sunnite. En entrevue à Paris Match, Hariri répète ses avertissements sur le Hezbollah qui conserve au Liban "un rôle politique" et où il a des armes. "L'intérêt du Liban, dit-il, est de faire en sorte que ces armes ne soient pas utilisées ailleurs."

Parcontre il nie avoir été détenu par Riyad. "J'ai démissionné... avec l'intention de faire un choc positif." Malgré sa situation délicate "le Liban vit un petit miracle, dit-il. La région est ravagée par les affrontements confessionnels. Nous avons connu des tensions très fortes. Nous avons préféré calmer le jeu." Mais les risques persistent dit celui qui dit craindre un assassinat aux mains de Damas.

A COUP BY ANY OTHER NAME

A president under arrest, soldiers in the streets while a man in military garb takes to the airwaves to urge calm, the scenario is not an unfamiliar one on the African continent. But where these scenes were taking place did cause some surprise this time.

After decades in power, ever since his country’s independence, Zimbabwe’s military placed the world's oldest head of state, 93-year-old Robert Mugabe, under house arrest as it seized power in a “bloodless correction” that suspended the long reign of the rebel leader who oversaw the end of white rule but refused to step down.

The military said it was purging the government of forces which it said had sought to corrupt those loyal to the revolution that brought independence in 1980. But local media said sources indicated the military singled out those loyal to the Mugabes.

Days after Mugabe fired his vice-president, who was known to be close to the military, to leave his wife as possible successor, soldiers took to the streets and placed the elderly president and a number of his ministers in custody, initially saying Mugabe himself wasn’t targeted but rather “criminals” around him. “We wish to make abundantly clear this is not a military takeover,” Maj-Gen.  Sibusiso Mayo took to the air saying, adding the president’s security “is guaranteed“.

He said the army would “pacify a degenerating ... situation” and promised “a return to normalcy”, but this is hardly how one would describe the sad state of the nation, facing hyperinflation and shortages which have sent its citizens looking beyond the borders for assistance and to get their hands on basic necessities.

The military had days earlier threatened to “step in” to calm rising political tensions, a statement the ruling ZANU-PF considered “treasonable conduct”, showing the first cracks between those in power and a military which until now had stayed loyal to the leadership. Some hoped this would mark a turning point after years of poverty, human rights violations and corruption under Mugabe.

Veterans groups once fiercely loyal to Mugabe now expressed hopes the military would make a “normal democracy “ out of the suffering country, which at one point saw hyper inflation hit 80 billion percent... before inflation was declared illegal, eliminating whatever worth the depleted local currency once had.

The economy grew by 0.5% last year but its underground market is thriving, the shadow economy representing about a third of the GDP; what was once the breadbasket of Africa decimated by farm seizures by so-called war veterans barely old enough to drive. But perhaps the existing and still abundant resources, including diamonds, could lead to future growth, with the right people in power, observers note.

Could this include longtime opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who just returned to Zimbabwe after going abroad for health reasons? The opposition is divided ahead of elections, possibly still scheduled for next year. Meanwhile ousted vice president Emmerson Mnan-gagwa also returned to Zimbabwe, possibly to seize power himself.

This is not without concern as he was behind bloody purges conducted by the regime in the 1980s. For now at least, there seemed to be a moment for celebration, as crowds took to the streets to party, not daring yet to look too far ahead.           


ON THE RISE AGAIN

After decades of growing global emissions there had been a downward trend to the spiral the world had seemingly been intractably engulfed in these last few years, at least until a recent report registered a first rise in CO2 emissions in four years, largely due to China’s increase in coal use as that economy expanded again.

Even Beijing seemed surprised, having led new efforts to cut carbon emissions. So as the U.S. administration looked to a future based on so-called “clean coal” after pulling out of the Paris emissions agreement, and countries looked to work around Washington to keep global emissions targets alive in Bonn, some 15,000 scientists found it appropriate to update the state of the planet, 25 years after the first Rio warnings, and issue a global warning on the need to change the planet's course.

But was it too much or a much needed wake up call? A professor and graduate student from Oregon state university’s College of Forestry found that since those now distant alarm bells, more warning signs have emerged, something which drew attention after a year of terrible U.S. storms blamed on global warming.

William Ripple found that, since, the world had seen growing trends including a decline in freshwater availability, unsustainable marine fisheries, ocean dead zones, forest losses, dwindling biodiversity, climate change and the ever increasing population growth. They noted reduced ozone layer depletion, but these may be heading back up. “The trends are alarming,” Ripple told the BBC.
“And they speak for themselves.”

Response to their paper was over whelming. “The scientists around the world are very concerned about the state of the world, the environmental situation and climate change,” he said. “So this allows them to have a collective voice.” The report came as New Zealand was announcing it was introducing a new program tailored for climate change refugees and shortly after latest figures showed a 2% rise in CO2 emissions caused by humans globally.

Emissions were up 3.5% overall. While the number is subject to debate scientists say it points to a growth trend that threatens global emission targets. “With global CO2 emissions from human activities estimated at 41 billion tonnes for 2017 time is running out on our ability to keep our warming well below 2 degrees C, let alone 1.5C,” said prof. Corinne Le Quere from the university of East Anglia.

While coal use was up in China and the US, oil and gas was prompting major concerns. “There have been lots of ups and downs in the use of coal but in the background there has been no weakening in the use of oil and gas and that is quite worrisome,” Le Quere said. But some critics called the bell ringing irresponsible scaremongering.

"There's a small percentage that loves the crisis narrative," noted Erle Ellis of Maryland University, noting that the warning ignores increases in wealth, health and well-being of people over the years. Was the warning over the top? Perhaps, but climate change is increasingly hard to ignore.

Recently a major credit agency, Moody's, warned coastal communities of the United States, even in areas unaffected by this year's storms such as California and Maine, that they should prepare for climate change or risk losing access to cheap credit. "What we want people to realize is: If you're exposed, we know that. We're going to ask questions about what you're doing to mitigate that exposure," Lenny Jones of Moody's told Bloomberg. "That's taken into your credit ratings."

Among the indicators the agency uses to assess such exposure is the economic activity of coastal areas, damage from hurricanes and tornados and the presence of homes in a flood plain, making the costal states from Georgia to Mississippi the most at risk in the U.S. As sea levels rise from melting glaciers, by some eight inches in the last century, scientists note the major cities of the globe affected would depend on the location of those melts, from Pantagonia and Antarctica, to Greenland and Northern Canada.

Some are of such size, notably the glaciers of Pine Island Bay in Antarctica, that their catastrophic melt could add 11 feet to sea levels and submerge coastal cities everywhere. A rise of half that amount could displace millions worldwide and flood major cities from Shanghai to Mumbai and Ho Chi Minh City.

Closer to these parts, the melt of Greenland glaciers is viewed by some as the ground zero of climate change, the territory losing some 270 billion tons of ice every year. Bracing for the possible impact to coastal communities across the globe, cities gathered in Chicago this week to commit to fighting climate change. Among them, was a leader both familiar and sensitive to the issue, and the city.

"2015 was the warmest year on record until 2016 became the warmest on record. That tells us the climate is changing faster than our efforts to address it," Barack Obama told the summit. "And that's why I made climate change a priority while I was president," signing a Paris agreement quickly abandoned by his successor, but which local leaders across the country are trying to honour still, all the while the Environment Protection Agency was stripping references to climate change on its website.

TWO SOLITUDES

Days after leader Carles Puigdemont addressed the Catalan assembly about the Oct. 1st referendum on separation a certain confusion set in. Had the wealthy eastern part of Spain broken away or not?

The separatist leader would soon find out the implications of the former to his own personal freedom. The question lingered until Puigdemont clarified the declaration was on hold so that dialogue could take place, dismaying nationalists and leaving European officials to heave a sight of relief.

But talks with Madrid did not ensue either in Spanish or Catalan, the break away region refusing to remove the threat of separation or call early elections. As Madrid prepared to invoke a rare constitutional article to seize control of Catalonia, the regional assembly declared independence, a move shortly followed by the Spanish senate's green light to take control of the region’s autonomous powers, the first time in four decades such direct rule measures were taken in Spain.

After weeks of pro and anti-independence marches never had the country’s solitudes appeared so divided. Had the methods of Catalonia ultimately achieved what Basque militants had failed to obtain during decades of bloody clashes? But as flag-waving nationalists  flooded the streets of Barcelona there was a sense independence was far from acquired.

The European Union reiterated its support for unity, refusing to talk directly with Catalonia but urging Madrid not to use violence to squash independence. Could violence engulf a crisis which until now had remained relatively peaceful? While rebellion and sedition charges were being prepared against Catalonia's leaders, Puigdemont urged "peace, civility and dignity".

In Madrid Prime Minister Rajoy called "for calm from all Spaniards," for other reasons, as "The rule of law will restore legality in Catalonia," adding that dismissing Puigdemont and his ministers would be his first order of business. Seventy Catalan parliamentarians had voted in favor of independence while 10 voted against and two handed in blank ballots of the assembly's 135 members.

"We can only hope the conflict will remain in the political realm," said hopefully former Catalan leader Joan Rigol I Roig. But Catalans were hardly unanimous, pro-union Catalans saying many had boycotted the independence referendum. Citizens party leader Carlos Carrioza charged that separatists had in fact staged a "coup against the democracy of Spain."

The central government would have none of that, ultimately dissolving the regional government and calling for December elections. Polls since the unilateral declaration of independence have shown some 55% of Catalans were opposed. Europe has seen a number of declarations of the sort since the fall of the Berlin wall, most hailing from former Soviet and Yugoslav republics.

But the Catalan declaration was a first in the bosom of the European Union and euro zone, causing the immediate rejection of EU partners from the United Kingdom and France, overseas to Canada and the United States. Understandably some Scottish officials were more welcoming, the region of Great Britain still weighing its decision whether or not to stage a new referendum after Brexit.

Polls have also shown Catalans to be in favor of the dissolution of the regional parliament, though there is no guarantee the election will form a pro-unity government. The nationalist parties have seen some division form amid the ranks since the referendum Madrid hopes could enable it to divide and conquer. It is  cautious not to seem too harsh after the violent incidents of the October 1 independence vote which raised concerns across the world.

The ousted leader slammed the central government's actions as "premeditated aggression" running "contrary to the expressed will of the citizens of our country, who know perfectly well that in a democracy it is parliaments that choose, or remove, presidents." He said the nationalist push would endure "without violence, insults, in an inclusive way, respecting people and symbols, opinions."

But some pro-unity Catalans say they have been bullied and shown lack of respect, choosing the days after the dissolution of the regional government to stage mass demonstrations in the streets of Barcelona. "The standoff has entered a new level of fragility, economic uncertainty and social unrest" stated a Stratfor analysis of events. "It is the first time since Spain's return to democracy in the late 1970s that Madrid has decided to take direct control of an autonomous region's institutions. Whatever happens next will be unprecedented."

Madrid for instance could have a hard time imposing its will on Catalonia's 200,000 civil servants, the analysis notes, though the central government will now be handling the purse strings as leverage. The uncertainty has affected the usually vibrant regional economy, some 1500 companies moving their legal seats out of Catalonia.

The Barcelona chamber of commerce also downgraded Catalonia's growth from 2.7% to 2.5% for 2018, something which will also have a national impact, showing the importance of a region creating 20% of Spain's wealth. Madrid hopes elections will solve the crisis and enable it to extricate itself from Catalonia gradually, leaving it with its usual powers, but this may take time. And some fear the arrest of a number of Catalan ministers, while a warrant is out for Puidgemont's, now in exile in Brussels, will only give nationalists a new boost ahead of the vote

LE ROYAUME A L'ENVERS

Volonté d’ouverture réelle, manipulation politique ou un peu des deux? Les annonces choc émanant du royaume saoudien s’accumulent avec la succession  du roi bien en tête. Le fils héritier du monarque serait largement derrière les tractations des derniers mois, promettant une nouvelle ouverture et une version moins rigoureuse de l’Islam conservateur dont le pays est le champion.

Se détacher du pétrole, transformer l’Arabie Saou-dite en un centre d’affaires ou d'échange tout en opérant une brèche dans un système qui a laissé la femme au second plan, voilà à quoi s’est engagé le jeune prince favori, Mohammed bin Salman, principal conseillé du roi.

Celui-ci a longtemps favorisé l’épanouissement de la femme dans un pays encore dominé par le régime du gardien ou tuteur masculin, accueillant des femmes dans son orbite professionnel  et prônant le genre d’ouverture envers le droit de conduire et de participer à des événements sociaux en tant que spectatrice récemment approuvée aux plus hautes instances.

Le jeune Salman, qui mène également une chasse à la corruption, ne s’est pas gêné de s’en prendre à ses rivaux potentiels dans la course à la succession, une dizaine de jeunes princes, dont le milliardaire Alaweed bin Tatal, propriétaire richissime du Georges V à Paris, ainsi que quatre ministres et une dizaine d’anciens ministres, faisant l’objet d'enquête du comité anti corruption qu’il dirige.

La montée fulgurante de l’homme de 32 ans a divisé le royaume, certains approuvant les réformes en cours mais d’autres regrettant son goût du pouvoir malgré son manque d’expérience et jeune âge.

Celui-ci contrôle notamment la firme d’investissement Kingdom Holding ainsi qu’un nombre important des parts dans des compagnies internationales de renom bien branchées telles Apple et Twitter. Les annonces sur les femmes donnent suite aux réformes récentes, dont le droit au vote lors des élections municipales de 2015 et la participation des premières athlètes olympiques lors des Jeux de Londres.

Mais le système des gardiens reste bien en place, ce qui laisse les femmes sans l’autorisation de se marier ou de divorcer, même de voyager, sans l’aval d’un gardien familial masculin, parmi les nom-breuses autres restrictions liées à leur sexe. Puis les annonces récentes se font sur fond d'arrestations de critiques du régime, dont des blogueurs ou utilisateurs de médias sociaux, dont Twitter, défavorables au pouvoir.

Quant aux 200 personnes interrogées ou détenues en lien avec la corruption, la prison est plutôt de leur goût, soit le Ritz Carlton de Riyad. Fin octobre, en dévoilant des plans de mégaprojet bien saoudien sur la mer Rouge, le jeune Salman promet une Arabie “modérée “ en rupture avec la traditionnelle version rigoriste de l’Islam, dont le pays abrite les plus importants lieux saints.

“Nous n’allons pas passer 30 ans de plus de notre vie à nous accommoder d’idées extrémistes et nous allons les détruire maintenant,” déclarait-il sous les applaudissements, promet-tant un Islam “tolérant et ouvert sur le monde et toutes les autres religions” prêt même à commencer à approuver des visas pour touristes.

LE RETOUR DE LA PESTE?

La peste, ce fléau historique responsable de la mort de plus de 50 millions de personnes en Europe au 14e siècle, c’est une maladie dont l’éclosion est pourtant  saisonnière à Madagascar, ile d’écologie exceptionnelle.

Mais l’actuelle saison de cette maladie désormais curable a vu des cas se répandre à l’extérieur des régions ordinairement touchées, assez pour mobiliser une Organisation internationale de la santé préoccupée par le risque d’exportation en Afrique orientale et ailleurs.

Plus de 2000 cas de peste pulmonaire ont été enregistrés au cours des dernières semaines, faisant de l’éclosion la pire du genre en un demi siècle. La propagation par la voie des airs en a fait un fléau particulièrement mortel et dur à combattre sur cette île relative-ment pauvre du continent africain.

L’explosion du nombre de cas d’une proportion de 37% en cinq jours a particulièrement alarmé les experts en matière de santé et sonné l’alerte chez les pays avoisinnants, de l’Afrique du sud au Kenya et de la Réunion aux Comores. Deux tiers des cas auraient été propagés par la voie des airs, soit l’éternuement ou le crachat. Aggravant l’éclosion, les célébrations des jours des morts qui ont causé plusieurs rassemblements importants.

Certains dansent ou paradent alors avec le corps de leurs proches lors de ces cérémonies macabres, une pratique désormais proscrite par les autorités. “Dans ce genre de cas on oublie vite les précautions en matière de santé,” fait remarquer Panu Saaristo de la Croix Rouge. L’OMS se console cependant du nombre décroissant de cas dans certaines régions du pays, mais seul un quart de l'île a été épargné jusqu'à présent.

On parvient mal à trouver la raison de la gravité de l’éclosion cette année mais certains médias pointaient du doigt les incendies forestiers et la fuite des rats vers les localités touchées. D’autres blâment les événements météorologiques. Selon l’OMS l’éclosion de cette année est particulièrement sévère, ayant fait plus de 160 morts,  et frappe cinq mois avant la fin de la saison pendant laquelle la peste fait ordinairement des victimes.

Traitée rapidement, la peste, qu’elle soit bubonique ou pulmonaire, est curable si “une antibiothérapie courante” est administrée dès les premiers signes. L’OMS a ainsi précipité 1,2 millions de doses antibiotiques vers l’ile et débloqué 1,5 millions $ de fonds d’urgence, mais dit nécessiter 5,5 millions $ pour pouvoir riposter à la flambée des cas.

L'organisation doit également combattre une autre maladie dans la région, sans remède celle-là, soit la fièvre de Marburg, aux symptômes terriblement similaires à ceux de l'ébola dont se remet à peine l'Afrique de l'ouest. Cette maladie tue environ 88% des personnes touchées, les premiers cas ayant fait des victimes en Ouganda.

Le risque de propagation y est important, notamment parce que les personnes atteintes avaient été en contact avec plusieurs autres personnes, mais aussi parce que les cas avaient lieu près de la frontière kenyane.

«Ce n’est pas la première fois que nous avons une flambée de cas, note la ministre de la santé ougandaise. Ce n’est pas la dernière fois. Parce que l’Ouganda se trouve dans la ceinture de la méningite, de la fièvre jaune, d’ébola. Nous avons les réservoirs de ce virus dans le pays."

THE ESCAPE OF THE RICH

While the sequel is rarely as good as the original, it can yield surprises. One year after the Panama papers lead to the ouster of leaders in Iceland and Pakistan, the leak of 13.4 million financial records of wealthy leaders and businessmen who placed assets in offshore banks has exposed ties between Russia and the current U.S. commerce secretary, placed the spotlight on the Canadian prime minister's top fundraiser and even exposed the Queen's offshore interests, to mention just some of about 120 leaders from around the world.

F1 champ Hamilton was also singled out for saving taxes by registering his Bombardier private jet in the Isle of Man while the Montreal Canadiens set up a pair of trusts in Bermuda according to leaked documents of Appelby, a firm which specialized in such offshore deals.

The Habs and businessman Stephen Bronfman issued denials following the leaks, which also revealed that a decade ago Queen Elizabeth’s estate invested in a Cayman Islands fund. Other royals snagged in the spotlight include Jordan’s queen Noor, while a myriad of foreign officials, from Uganda’s foreign minister to Brazil’s ex finance minister, also deserved their chapter in the voluminous financial paperwork dump.

The alleged ties of key associates of the U.S. president with offshore accounts proved particularly concerning in Washington amid ongoing allegations of Russian collusion. The commerce secretary used “Cayman Islands entities to maintain a financial stake in Navigator Holding,” the International consortium of investigative journalists found, noting the shipping company has “top clients that include Kremlin-linked energy firm Sibur,” partly owned by Putin’s son in law.

The company has “crony connections” claims Russia expert and former State Department official Daniel Fried. Meanwhile the Bronfman revelations come at a time the Canadian government is accused by the political opposition of being too chummy with rich friends and donors while failing to act against tax evasion but sheltering friends of the ruling Liberals.

“We are fully committed to fighting tax evasion and tax avoidance,” Justin Trudeau said in light of the allegations, adding the Canada Revenue Agency is “reviewing links to Canadian entities and will take every appropriate action.” He however elicited much criticism saying he found Bronfman's justifications acceptable.

This is the latest controversy involving the prime minister's rich friends to land him in trouble, starting with his Christmas vacation to the Aga Khan's private island a year after his 2015 election. Corporate entities have not been spared by the so-called Paradise papers, companies like Apple, Uber and Nike being listed as finding tax havens, the first to the tune of $252 billion, an amount it moved from tax-friendly Ireland to the island of Jersey when the former conducted tax reforms.

Such Channel islands have featured as prominently as their well known Caribbean tax-evasion equivalents in the documents, the Isle of Man serving to save tax expenses for everything from that jet purchase to transactions by a Canadian mining company operating in Africa but registered in Whitehorse.

While such holdings are not always ethical, the journalism consortium reminded readers it “does not suggest or imply that any persons, companies or other entities haven broken the law” by publishing the documents. But coming days after the first indictments in the American inquiry on Russian influence and as the government in Ottawa dealt with controversy over the finance minister's foreign holdings, the money trail has raised embarrassing ques-tions in a number of countries.

Maltese prime minister Joseph Muscat was another leader also quick to state that “no proof of any illegal or irregular circum-stances has emerged,” after revelations in the Paradise papers that his island has been a popular destination for Azeri money. But Malta is still stirred by the recent assassination of an investigative journalist who was in part looking into Muscat’s wife, whose name appeared in the Panama papers. While the leader and his wife denied any wrongdoing, the family of the late Daphne Galicia has been vocal asking for Muscat’s resignation and institutional change.

Tax evading schemes in Malta and the Isle if Man are also starting to gather scrutiny at the European Commission, concerned some of their regulations may be contravening continental tax laws. The EU's finance chief condemned tax evaders as "vampires" and said institutions had to adapt to the latest schemes.

“These aggressive tax planning optimisation schemes, many of them appear to be completely legal. So we have to respond on the legal front by establishing a new legal framework. If this is legal, as many people claim, then we need to change the law,” said Pierre Moscovici. “Trans-parency is the first weapon in our armoury. It’s the one that will allow us to stop a culture of secrecy, and a feeling of impunity of people who are carrying out tax avoidance."

MA CHINE ARRIERE

Après le grand Timonier le 'ti monier? En fait c’est au même titre que l’auteur du grand pas en avant lui-même, Mao tsé-toung, que le président chinois Xi Jinping a été élevé lorsque son nom a été inscrit dans la charte du Parti communiste chinois lors du congrès du grand parti de l’empire du milieu.

Au courant de celui-ci plus de 2300 délégués ont approuvé à l’unanimité l’inclusion dans la charte du parti « de la pensée XI Jiping du socialisme à la chinoise de la nouvelle ère », un geste qui n’avait pas été fait envers ses prédécesseurs Jiang Zémin et Hu Jintao.

«cela conférera à Xi une autorité extra-ordinaire, note le politologue Willy Lam, de l’université chinoise de Hong Kong, il pourrait être comme lui: dirigeant à vie aussi longtemps qu’il est en bonne santé ». Pour l’heure son mandat de cinq ans a été renouvelé mais se retrouve désormais entre ses mains le choix de la succession.

Si le titre est déjà quelquechose il faut ajouter le fait qu’il a été décerné après peu d’années a la barre. « La tradition en Chine veut que l’empereur soit aussi le professeur, le maître à penser, explique à l’AFP le politologue Hu Xingdou, Xi y est arrivé dès la fin de son premier mandat, c’est rare dans notre histoire. »

Certes des défis guettent l’empereur, alors que le pays se dirige vers une période de ralentissement économique relatif mais une expansion de son influence internationale. Or malgré tous ses pouvoirs Washington est là pour lui demander de veiller à son voisinage et dompter l’incontrôlable voisin nord coréen.

Mais dans cette pensée à présent gravée dans le roc du panthéon des plus grands dirigeants chinois, Xi voit grand, notamment une «grande renaissance de la nation », comme un autre bond, et l’engagement, à temps pour le centenaire de 2049, de constituer une armée « de premier rang mondial » pour la postérité.

Au compte des effectifs ont y est déjà mais il s’agit de dompter cette technologie qui laisse le rival  américain seul sur son trône, le genre de technologie qui ne passe pas par les usines chinoises. Xi a d’ailleurs veillé sur la révision de cette force de  deux millions d’âmes alors que le pays s’imposait dans la mer de Chine.

L’occasion est d’ailleurs bonne d’agir sur une scène internationale délaissée par les États-Unis et d’y occuper « une place de choix » en « posant les règles en affaires mondiales ». Et sur le terroir qui dit pouvoir suprême dit interdiction de remettre en question la direction communiste du pays, et de moins en moins, celle de son président.

Celui-ci a d’ailleurs resserré sa poigne sur le pays, nettoyé son propre milieu en éliminant des dirigeants haut placés lors de sa campagne anti corruption et poursuivi les atteintes à la liberté d'expression, ce «socialisme à la sauce chinoise d’une nouvelle ère » qui peut être servie aux convives à titre de «choix nouveau pour d’autres pays ».

Mais Lam n’y voit qu’«un retour à la direction unique » plutôt qu’une approche collégiale, selon lui  «un pas en arrière » plutôt qu'un bond en avant pour faire progresser l'empire du milieu au 21ème siècle.      

ILS SONT DE RETOUR A KIEV


WAR IS HELL, AND THIS?

If this isn't war, what must that be like? The question resonates in the aftermath of the deadliest bombing in Somalia’s bloody history, which claimed over 350 lives and left dozens of others unaccounted for. Sadly it wasn't the latest attack of the sort. But after years of unrelenting violence that mid October blast was so shocking it sent thousands to the tense streets in protest.

The country's beleaguered president said the nation in the Horn of Africa had to prepare for a "state of war "  a notion which may have lost its meaning. New U.S. assisted military offensives would target the suspected insurgents, al Shabab jihadists, Washington having  declared part of the country a zone for drone operations earlier this year.

The effectiveness of such offensives has come into question, as well as that of US intelligence on the continent, or lack thereof, after half a dozen US soldiers were killed in a Niger mission recently. Would the spectre of 1993 reappear if Washington adds to the 400 troops already in Somalia to help train local forces?

Military missions have been increased since the election of a Somali American president in February in an imperfect election, but the results are visibly all but conclusive, as jihadists continue to target both military and civilians. The new leadership has also been unable to prevent pirates working off the Somali coast from resuming their attacks on ships travelling through the strategic waterways, a resumption of activities some blamed on illegal fishing and others on the country's famine.

Others see dwindling vigilance by maritimers as a culprit, coupled with the lack of onshore resources to end the attacks. "We have been relying on offshore containment, but the best way to combat piracy is through onshore solutions," says Dr. Afyare Elmi of Qatar University. "The best way is to invest in the national government, to build capacity at national level."

The U.S. carried its latest drone strikes in the country following the Mogadishu attack. This week it went further by launching its first air strikes there, but targeted ISIS after a New York lone wolf attack killed 8. But some local officials fear US military action may only be making matters worse.

They identified the man responsible for the Oct. 14 attack as a former soldier whose hometown was raided by Somali troops assisted by US special forces in a botched operation months ago which left 10 civilians killed, and said the bombing could have been an act of revenge.

This isn't uncommon according to a recent United Nations report, which states that in “a majority of cases, state action appears to be the primary factor finally pushing individuals into violent extremism in Africa”. The report interviewed hundreds of former militant fighters, 71% of whom said “government action”, including the “killing of a family member or friend” or “arrest of a family member or friend” prompted them to join a militant group.

While Al-Shabab has denied a role in the October 14 attack, perhaps shocked by its death toll, it hardly halted operations, claiming responsibility for two attacks in Mogadishu last week which killed two dozen people, one of them a regional security chief. The attack led to the sacking of police and intelligence chiefs at a time the two portfolios are key to the country's survival.

Over a quarter century after the fall of dictator Siad Barre the country remains a frail state hardly able to handle its own affairs. Officials now fear a 2020 calendar to withdraw some 22,000 African Union troops and turn the keys to Somali forces is very much in doubt.


PARTING WAYS

Break-away referendums are tension-filled affairs, especially as they tend to let a minority decide on the future of an entire nation. Catalonia and Kurdistan were no different, the Spanish and Iraqi regions facing perhaps the most pressure of recent independence plebiscites, central authorities declaring them illegal.
The former saw preventive arrests and police interventions to block polling stations while the latter was able to proceed with the understanding it was non-binding, its organizers besieged by Baghdad and neighboring capitals threatening border actions and broken ties.

The Iraqi government asked local officials to yield control of the region’s airports ahead of the vote while airlines stopped servicing them. In the end the Kurds voted in favor overwhelmingly, which organizers said would bolster the autonomous region’s hand dealing with Baghdad. The numbers were convincing with 92% of participants voting yes, a score immediately met with resistance in the Iraqi capital where Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi called for the referendum to be annulled and a new dialogue.

Talks would follow, the regional government ruled, but only to negotiate the region’s eventual break up. The vote shook oil prices amid threats of a blockade by neighbors of the Kurdish region home to rich oil fields. "Let’s engage in serious dialogue and become good neighbors," declared Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani. But Baghdad suspended lawmakers who voted yes in the referendum.

Break ups are hardly ever peaceful like the velvet revolution, the independence of South Sudan and Eritrea only bringing war with their former citizens. While the scenario seems much less likely in Spain, the violence of Madrid’s preventive measures caused alarm there and in other countries, and sparked concerns this would only boost what was lukewarm support for independence. Rallies in Catalonia in the days leading to the vote condemned the rush by Madrid to send police to the region, a move leader Carles Puidgemont likened to Franco-style interference. 

"There’s a serious and worrying return to the fall of democracy in Spain and it's not just us who are realizing that,"  he said, deploring the arrival of ferries to accommodate the coming officers. "In the worst years of the ETA era you wouldn’t get such massive deployments. There’s no violence here." Sympathetic to the cause, Quebec nationalist and observer Gilbert Paquette condemned police action he said prevented Catalan civil servants from doing their jobs preparing ballots.

His province's legislature later passed a motion condemning Madrid's "authoritarian" measures. A dozen officials working in the election were arrested on the orders of a Barcelona judge days before the vote and Madrid threatened others with obscene fines. Paquette called Madrid’s actions that of "a regime of terror" whose actions will only "reinforce their convictions". In scenes reminiscent of the 1995 Quebec referendum, cities across Spain held flag-waving rallies in support of unity.

But at least the Quebec votes in 1980 and 1995 had been allowed to go forward, activists both for and against independence occupied schools and railed against Madrid because it sought to deny the vote altogether, leading to clashes on voting day which injured hundreds of people. Spanish authorities blasted Catalan officials as "irresponsible" for allowing the vote to go forward despite warnings, while Barcelona called police action unjustified violence.

Video showed Spanish police smashing into polling stations to remove ballots and voters, pulling some participants by the hair. While Madrid denied the legitimacy of the referendum, calling it a "mockery" of democracy, Puidgemont said Sunday Catalonia had "won the right to statehood" after the voters who did manage to cast ballots overwhelmingly endorsed independence, 90% voting in favor.

"With this day of hope and suffering, the citizens of Catalonia have won the right to an independent state in the form a republic," he said, adding later that Catalonia didn't want "a traumatic break" with the rest of the country. The dueling interpretations, and calls for European mediation by Puidgemont, promised tense weeks ahead as 40 trade unions and Catalan associations carried out a region-wide strike this week to denounce "the grave violation of rights and freedoms," bringing tens of thousands to the streets.

Spain's King Felipe addressed the nation about the crisis but hardly offered mediation, saying the referendum's organizers had put themselves "outside the law", and failing to mention the violence. Catalan officials said they were disappointed the monarch did little more than toe the government line. While officials from Canada to the European Union limited their commentary to the fact it was an internal matter, they expressed concern about the often violent nature of police action, which used rubber bullets, and hoped dialogue would ensue.

"We call on all relevant players to now move very swiftly from confrontation to dialogue," the European Commission said in a statement. "Violence can never be an instrument in politics." But EU officials also found the Catalan vote "not legal" while Spain's justice minister warned that any declaration of independence could give Madrid the right to suspend the Catalan government's authority. But Catalan officials, invigorated by the strong support and angered by the violence, remained undaunted, leaving Europe with its latest crisis on its hands.