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Adieu Mandela

Que d'éloges pour ce fils de chef tribal devenu militant, incarcéré pendant 27 ans au large de Cape Town, ou entre les barreaux il gardait le regard fixe sur l'avenir de sa patrie, une nation divisée entre tribus et races, qu'il était presque facile de voir sombrer dans le chaos et la terreur. Or sa vision était autre, et l'histoire connut un autre dénouement. Et voilà pourquoi ils étaient réunis en grand nombre, entre les gouttes en ce printemps africain. Et cette communion extraordinaire de chefs d'état, souvent rivaux, chantait à elle seule les louanges d'un personnage presque messianique, qui était pourtant le premier à avouer les erreurs de son humanité.

Autant de leçons apprises pour un seul homme, des leçons d'une certaine utilité au reste d'entre nous. Pour rendre hommage au premier président noir sud-africain, le premier président noir Américain, un des 100 chefs d'états présents, le plus important rassemblement du genre. Parmi eux certes David Cameron et Barack Obama, mais Raul Castro et Robert Mugabe aussi, et quelques instants après avoir échangé une rare poignée de main avec le frère du Commandante, Obama avait un certain message à leur transmettre: "Trop de gens se déclarent solidaires avec la lutte de Madiba pour la liberté, mais ne tolèrent pas les voix contestataires chez eux". Entendu M. le vice-président chinois?

Sous la pluie les indigènes faisaient leur deuil comme seul il leur semble possible, soit en chantant et dansant, arborant les couleurs le l'ANC. Voilà depuis des jours qu'ils en faisaient de même chez Mandela, autour d'un amoncellement impressionnant de fleurs et de symboles de la lutte. Certes leurs chants étaient parfois trop bruyants pour ces orateurs, la plupart ennuyeux, et viraient parfois en huées, lorsque le président Jacob Zuma prenait la parole. Mais il ne pouvait-il y avoir de plus vibrant hommage à cette démocratie qui a, contre vents et marées, pris racine au sud du grand continent?

Cinquante ans après Robben Island, 25 ans après avoir partagé notre une de numéro de fin d'année et 20 ans après sont prix Nobel de la Paix, Nelson Mandela retrouvait le repos au son des vuvuzelas dans le stade ou il avait fait sa dernière apparition publique. Il n'aura été, somme toute, qu'un homme, la nation qu'il laisse à son sort n'étant pas des plus paisibles, sans parler de sa propre famille, proie aux déchirements depuis plusieurs mois. Mais un être d'une rare catégorie tout de même.

The new struggle in Ukraine

After the Great Berlin Wall came tumbling down, an empire col- lapsed and the dust settled, many countries behind the old Iron curtain were at long last ex- posed to free markets and democracy, and rushed to apply to join the European Union and NATO. Not all did how- ever. Despite the novelty and opportunity to break from the past and oppression, some felt more comfortable stay- ing within the Soviet, later CIS-sphere of influence, such as Belarus. Most were anxious to break their chains, notably Baltic states which had been culturally and otherwise been traumatized by Moscow. 

The Ukraine, so close to Russia but longing for Western influence, found itself struggling to defined itself, caught in the faultlines of empire, in an Eastern European no man’s land, between two ideological zones it couldn’t choose be- tween, ending up split- ting itself as a result. Last week, after years of flirting with the West, it bowed to the irresistible forces pulling along the Eastern border, where Russia was once more flexing its post-Soviet muscle, at least economically. This was palpable as Vilnius held a summit long-expected to welcome a number of post-Soviet countries within the EU’s realm, among them Moldova, Azeribaijan and Georgia, but chief among them what could become Europe’s second-largest country. 

The European Union suspects Vladimir Putin’s Russia continues to pull the economic strings in order to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence, as Russophile President Viktor Yanukovych chose to put on hold a historic association agreement with the EU, the first stage to eventual membership. Russia has been trying to influence Ukraine with a combination of carrot, such as the promise of further trade deals, and stick, by carrying out shipment inspections at the border this year, an ominous warning of more to come if Kyiv sided with the EU. Putin made clear that to have Ukraine sign a deal, instead of joining its own group with Belarus and Kazakhstan, would pose a “big threat” to Russia’s economy. In fact he says main industries from agriculture to car and aviation manufacturers would suffer from the flood of European goods. “We are not ready to open our gates to European goods,” he said. “Do we have to choke entire sectors of our economy for them to like us?” 

The turnaround came days after Kyiv chose to keep incarcerated former opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, against the wishes of the continent’s Western powers. The figure of the 2004 Orange revolution, imprisoned for abuse of power, said she would start a new hunger strike, as the streets of the capital which in time had grown wary of the de- cade-old struggle were once again the scene of reminiscent rallies and clashes with police. She called for the overthrow of the government. 

Violent clashes over the weekend, accompanied by national strikes, prompted the opposition to call for snap elections as world capitals deplored the crack down. A new tent camp has been erected in the centre of town as flag-waving protesters defied authorities to put an end to their rejuvenated movement amid the president’s call for “peace and calm in our big Ukrainian family.” “I would like to underline this: there is no alternative to the creation of a society of European standards in Ukraine and my policies on this path always have been, and will continue to be, consistent,” Yanukovych declared, in an effort to calm the movement. “But I would be dishonest and unfair if I had not taken care of the most dis- advantaged and vulnerable, who may carry the brunt during a transitional period.” 

While the protesters called for “a European future without Yanukovych”, Euro- pean officials indicated they would not immediately shut the door on a future deal. “It is up to Ukraine to freely decide what kind of engagement they seek with the European Un- ion,” said European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Com- mission President Jose Manuel Barroso, adding Moscow’s influence shared the blame for torpedoing the talks. “We strongly disapprove of the Russian position and actions.” German chancellor Angela Merkel had a more direct message for Moscow: “The cold war is over.” 

This week, as pressure mounted following the weekend crack- down, officials temporarily flirted with the possibility of a snap election. Protesters meanwhile dug in for the long haul and indicated they were- n’t budging until Ukraine signed an agreement with the EU, remaining hopeful the country wasn’t about to turn its back on the West. “After negotiations with many influential European politicians we are positive that Europe is still interested in Ukraine’s euro-integration," said boxing champion and opposition leader Vitali Klitschko. “The doors have not been closed yet. However, it depends on us if we will ever be a part of Europe or not.” 

Critics say the country's leader is seeking short-term relief by not upsetting Russia instead of looking for long-term economic gain through the EU. The Ukrainian president had claimed the timing was simply off. “As soon as we reach a level that is comfortable for us, when it meets our interests, when we agree on normal terms, then we will talk about signing,” Yanukovych told a TV station. “When this will happen - soon or not so soon - time will tell. I would like that time to come as soon as possible.” 

Ukraine fears it has much to lose from turning its back on Moscow by joining the EU, an apparent zero-sum game played on the fringes of the continent. The calculations are complex, as are the country’s economic ties. While the EU is Ukraine’s largest trade partner, as a single country Russia is the top market, and the Ukraine still does 60% of its business with the former Soviet bloc, the old ties that still bind. It wouldn’t be the first time a post-Soviet country backed out of such a deal, Armenia choosing earlier this year, after a visit by Putin, to join Moscow’s customs un- ion, a decision European officials made clear was incompatible with member- ship in the EU. 

Ironically the EU is more of a draw now, dis- playing signs of economic recovery, with unemployment numbers down overall. In the meantime the opposition, which lost its no-confidence vote, had its work cut out re- moving the president, even if the current leader was ousted in the Orange revolution. “There are few legal mechanisms to oust the president or form a compliant government unless Yanukovych suddenly decides to cooperate with the opposition,” explained Baylor political scientist Serhiy Kudelia. “Given the opposition’s revolutionized demands, such cooperation remains unlikely and the legal way out of the crisis is still un- clear. This may further inten- sify pressure on opposition leaders to resort to extra-judicial actions in the near future.”

New tensions in Eastern Seas

The aerial dogfight over contested airspace and waters of the East China Sea brought a familiar chill to the region’s geopolitics and served as a reminder both of other claims and America’s challenge in changing the course of its foreign policy, as the White House set out to do. It was hardly the first time the region’s capitals exchanged harsh words over the fate of small islands near valuable undersea gas fields in the region, but Beijing’s decision to establish an air defence identification zone over the area promptly brought the war planes of four different countries zig zagging these tense skies, Japanese, U.S. and South Korean fighters choosing to defy China’s declaration, while Chinese fighters later scrambled to tail U.S. planes. 

While Japanese commercial aircraft chose to ignore the zone, or China’s request it receive flight plans in ad- vance, U.S. carriers American and Delta weren’t as carefree, agreeing to notify the Chinese in a move Washington stressed had nothing to do with recognizing the newly-established zone. It was in this tense environment the U.S. vice-president visited the region this week, while U.S. and Japanese vessels geared for war games, adding an extra layer of volatility to the situation. U.S. military officials on the ground however downplayed the dispute, and imposition of a special air zone. 

“We are going to continue with our operations in international airspace as we always have,” said Vice Admiral Robert L. Thomas, commander of the U.S. 7th fleet, on a carrier fresh from participating in rescue efforts in the Philippines. “It’s about international norms, standards, rules and laws. When anybody makes an extreme claim it is really an imperative that the inter- national community can continue to operate in accordance with international law and not be distracted.” Joe Biden later backed the general saying Beijing's move would have "no effect on American operations". 

Japanese officials criticized the Chinese move as “a profoundly dangerous act that may cause unintended con- sequences in the area,” while Sec. of State John Kerry said “this unilateral action constitutes an attempt to change the status quo in the East China Sea. Escalatory action will only in- crease tensions in the region and create risks of an incident.” Chinese officials argued establish- ing such zones was hardly a precedent and hoped planes flying into the zone would comply, air force spokesman Shen Jinke adding “China’s air force is on high alert and will take measures to deal with diverse air threats to firmly protect the security of the country’s air- space.” Japanese Prime minister Shinzo Abe said his country would “resolutely by calmly deal with Beijing’s attempt to change the status quo”. 

The crisis has once again shown the U.S. president has his work cut out trying to smoothen relations with friends and foe alike. “Even though at the beginning he hoped to be a transformative president, both domestically and abroad, he has failed to deliver on each,” says Aaron Da- vid Miller of the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars. Some argue there’s a correlation between these failures and a recent study which for the first time in 40 years has a majority of Americans saying their country’s influence is on the wane. The East Chine Sea dispute is hardly the only one in Asia, waters in the South China Sea also leaving countries such as China and the Philippines clashing over claims. 

The Chinese envoy to Manila said it was his country’s right to impose such zones, but added one was- n’t immediately being contemplated for the South China Sea. This week we are reminded of the territorial claims contested at the top of the world as well as Canada makes its case to expand its water boundaries over 1.7 million kilometres of Arctic sea floor. The U.S., Canada, Russia and Denmark have been collecting precious data over re- cent years to lay their claims on various parts of the North.

Nouvelles manifs en Thailande divisée

Depuis le renversement du premier ministre Thaksin Shinawatra en 2006, peu de développements politiques ne sont pas analysés à travers le prisme du coup d’état dans le pays des sourires. L’événement lui-même a causé une déchirure nationale et déclenché multes manifestations, parfois violentes, entre chemises rouges fidèles à l’ancien dirigeant, et chemises jaunes. En 2010 ces dernières paralysaient le centre de la capitale lors d’éclats parfois violents qui ont fait plusieurs douzaines de victimes. Puis l’an dernier lorsque Yingluck Shinawatra, sa soeur, a été élue au poste de premier ministre, la réaction a été immédiate: la première femme au poste dans l’histoire du pays ne faisait que figure de masque féminin aux yeux des anti-Thaksin, qui promettaient de la poursuivre pour parjure. 

Ils sont catégoriques, depuis le pays est dirigé par un homme en exil. La nouvelle ronde d’éclats n’a donc pas tardé lorsqu’une loi d’amnistie, considérée par plusieurs comme un moyen de permettre le retour du dirigeant exilé, a été présentée. Malgré son rejet au Sénat, le projet a à nouveau provoqué d’importantes manifesta- tions de la part des jaunes, prenant plusieurs ministères d’assaut et faisant appel à la démission de Yingluck. 

Cette fin de semaine de nouvelles scènes de violence se sont emparées de la rue, les chemises jaunes et rouges en venant aux coups, même à des échanges de tirs, faisant quatre morts et plus de 250 blessés avant l'intervention de l'armée. Yinluck a refusé de dissoudre le parlement, annonçant plutôt l’extension de mesures de sécurité spéciales à l’ensemble de la capitale afin de tenter de rétablir l’ordre. Mais alors que la dirigeante demandait “à la population de ne pas se joindre à des manifestations illégales et de respecter la loi”, les contestataires redoublaient les appels à “la désobéissance civile” tout en encourageant la foule à “prendre tous les ministères” après avoir pris les départements des finances et des affaires étrangères d’assaut. 

“Si les fonctionnaires ne cessent pas leur travail, nous prendrons tous les ministères demain, a déclaré devant la foule Suthep Thaugsuban, un ancien dirigeant du Parti démocrate, principal parti de l’opposition. Ce que nous voulons, c’est nous débarrasser du système Thaksin.” Avant la fin de semaine, malgré les mots amers et les manifestations bruyantes, les actes étaient demeurés relativement paisibles, Yingluck écartant initialement l’utilisation des militaires. Mais ça n’a pas duré. Visé par un mandat d’arrestation, Thaugsuban est parvenu à s’adresser aux foules aux nez et à la barbe des forces de l’ordre.

Son discours était plutôt provocateur. “Laissez les gens se rendre à tous les ministères afin d’empêcher les fonctionnaires de servir le régime Thaksin, dit-il. Une fois que ce sera fait on pourra s’en prendre à l’hôtel de ville”. Pour Yingluck cependant il ne s’agit pas de "régime Thaksin" mais bien d’un gouvernement “élu démocratiquement”. Des élections ne risquent d’ailleurs que de ré-élire un parti majoritaire, Puea Thai, qui a remporté les quatre derniers appels aux urnes. Yingluck n’a d'ailleurs eu aucune peine  à survivre à une motions de censure, mais ses appels au dialogue sont tombés sur des oreilles de sourds. 

«Je propose aux manifestants d’arrêter de manifester et de quitter les bâtiments officiels», a-t-elle déclaré appelant à «trouver une solution» au courant d’une journée où les manifestants ont privé le quartier général de la police de courant. Le porte-pa- role des manifestants Akanat Promphan a cependant indiqué que le siège des ministères allait se poursuivre. «On ne peut pas lui faire confiance». 

Cette semaine les tensions ont baissé d'un cran après le démantèlement des barricades par les policiers à temps pour fêter l'anniversaire du roi, mais une reprise des hostilités était attendue suite aux célébrations malgré les appels au calme et à l'unité de sa majesté.

Is this the year the Natives rise?

After the Occupy movement in 2011 and Quebec protests last year, is this the year Canada’s Aboriginals maketheirvoicesheard? Since October a swelling protest movement has paralyzed rail lines and brought drum beats in shopping malls, even blocking international bridges between Canada and the U.S. to draw attention to Native and environmental rights. But it was the silent protest of a native chief best known for repeatedly bringing the terrible conditions on her reserve to a national attention that has galvanized the movement called Idle no more. 

Its mission statement is a reminder of other sweeping protests of recent years, the grassroots movement calling “on all people to join in a revolution which honours and fulfils indigenous sovereignty which protects the land and water”. As protests swelled to a National Day of Action in December, Chief Theresa Spence of the stricken reserve of Attawapiskat, where a year earlier she had declared a third state of emergency in three years, announced she was beginning a hunger strike. Away from the blockades and direct actions of the protesters on an island near Parliament Hill, Spence has been pursuing her hunger strike into the new year awaiting her meeting with Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who agreed to meet with native leaders this week. 

It is his policies in particular the movement is targeting, Idle no more claiming it wants to “stop the Harper government from passing more laws and legislations that will further erode treaty and indigenous rights and the rights of all Canadians.” Held Friday, on the latest day of nationwide protests, the gathering faced the threat of boycott when Spence initially said she would not attend because the governor general would be absent. In order to avoid further protest which organizers said would target economic interests, the Queen's representative eventually agreed to hold a ceremonial meeting with the chiefs. But some band members refused to take part in either, dividing the movement and threatening more direct action. 

While the movement drew international attention with Spence, it hardly started with her, four Saskatchewan women first raising their voices about Bill C-45 in October, fearing legislation would erode native rights and spreading their concerns on social media, one Facebook site claiming 45,000 members. That’s usually how modern day protests have caught fire. Among the changes sparking concern were amendments to Canada’s Indian Act making it “easier opening treaty lands and territory.” Changes to the Navigation and Protection Act they say removed protections to most of Canada’s waterways while the Environmental Assessment Act allows a faster approval process for projects potentially harming the environment. 

The Harper government’s environmental policies have come under fire over the last year, from an overhaul of laws cancelling some 3,000 environmental assessments overnight to cuts to programs monitoring air and water quality. They are occurring at a time Canada’s focus on making oilsands available to U.S. and international mar- kets have irked environmen- talists criticizing pipeline routes and pollution tied to the resource. Early in the New Year the prime minister agreed to meet with native leaders including Spencer, but protests have carried on, participants remaining skeptic the talks with bring any changes. Over the weekend some 350 protesters gathered on the interna- tional bridge in Cornwall, already involved in native protest action during a dispute over the arming of border guards in 2009, closing it for hours. In Kingston protesters blocked rail lines, delaying passenger service for hours, while roads from the Northwest Territories to B.C. were also shut as a result. 

“Idle No More activities will not stop until we reach our two goals: Indigenous sovereignty (Nation to Nation relationship) and protection of the land and water (Social and Environmental Sustainability),” the movement stated on the week- end. “Once we reach these goals, we will continue to work to protect them. In essence, Idle No More is here to stay.”Boosted by a social-media-educated youth, the movement offers many similarities with its predecessors, such as the Occupy movement, experts say. “They are both diffuse, grassroots movements with no central organizing structure,” says Jeffrey Denis of McMaster University. “Al- though there have been distinct triggers and key organizers in different regions, like Occupy, Idle No More has taken on a life of its own and it is difficult to keep track of all the events.” However he adds: “Idle No More activists have been clearer in identifying concrete actions that can be taken right now to put us on that path.” 

Tom Flanagan of the University of Calgary says the movement is different from the Oka crisis or other Native protests over the last years and decades as “This is the first time there is a simultaneous uprising from coast to coast.” While Spence has been praised by some former leaders, such a former prime minister Paul Martin, as “an inspiration” for her stand, the chief and her predecessors at Attawapiskat First Nation have also come under scrutiny after an audit of the federal funding spent by the community found supporting documents often lacking for the $104 million given to the band between 2005 and 2011. Spence has been chief since 2010. Accounting firm Deloitte said about 80 per cent of some 500 transactions “did not have adequate supporting documents”. Funding was ear- marked for services includ- ing housing, infrastructure and education but as a result it wasn’t possible to tell if it was properly spent. “There is no evidence of due diligence in the use of public funds, including the use of funds for housing,” wrote Deloitte. 

Critics say this is a recurrent problem in reserve spending, the report itself recommending stricter enforcement measures and better First Nation’s record-keeping. And more money could be coming from the government on native is- sues after the Federal Court recognized metis and non-status Indians in Canada as "Indians" under the Constitution. “Canada spends more than any other country on its Aboriginal people,” former Mulroney chief of staff Norman Spector told CTV. “Something is amiss.” Spence defended her actions, calling the report a distraction on the current issues striking Native communities. “I remain steadfast on my journey and will not allow any distractions at this time to [waver from] the goal set forth,” Spence said in a stated response. 

While Native chiefs gathered in the nation’s capital to meet with the prime minister officials from two Alberta Indian bands, Mikisew Cree and the Frog Lake First Nation, arrived to ask for a judicial review of the environ- mental provisions in both C-45 and C-38, citing Supreme Court rulings recognizing Ottawa must consult with Native groups about decisions impacting their communities and resources. 

Veilles de pourparlers sur la Centrafrique

L’année a bien mal commencé en République centrafricaine, les rebelles menaçant de répéter les gestes devenus trop familiers afin d’évincer le pouvoir pendant que Bangui faisait appel à l’aide de la communauté internationale et particulièrement celle de Paris. En effet ce n’était pas pour protester contre un geste quelconque des troupes françaises installées dans leur pays mais justement pour condamner leur inaction que plusieurs manifestants centrafricains prenaient l’ambassade de France pour cible alors que la rébel- lion frappait aux portes de la capitale, elle qui avait repris les armes en décembre pour protester le non respect d’accords de paix avec le pouvoir. 

Lorsque des troupes françaises ont éventuellement été envoyées en renfort, c’était pour protéger les expatriés plutôt que le régime. Comme lors des rébellions précédentes les troupes du Tchad voisin sont venues soutenir la présidence croulante de François Bozizé, barricadé chez lui comme la plupart de la population alors que les rebelles prenaient une telle emprise sur le territoire de cette petite république de 5 millions d’âmes que les révoltés estimaient la prise de la capitale inutile. Pourquoi alors que, selon la coalition rebelle du Séléka, le pouvoiramanifestement"perdu le contrôle du pays”. 

Les rebelles, dont on connait encore très mal le nombre ou l’arsenal mais dont la confiance gonfle à chaque étape qui se termine souvent par la déroute ou la fuite des troupes nationales - démoralisées -, auraient d’ailleurs à se buter aux renforts tchadiens, dernière ligne de défense avant Bangui. Cette rébellion mettait à première vue fin à cinq ans de tentatives d’un processus de paix qui avait tenté de terminer un cycle infernal de coups d’états et de rébellions multiples, formant une instabilité coûteuse économiquement. Mais alors que les rebelles refusaient les premiers appels aux pourparlers, poursuivant leur progression dans plusieurs ville stratégiques, dont la ville diamantifère de Bria, s’emparant du tiers du pays tout en faisant appel aux forces de sécurité du pays de déposer les armes, ils changèrent de cap et décidèrent de rejoindre la table de négociation. Un geste plutôt inhabituel. 

Cette semaine lors de pourparlers au Congo, les deux parties s'entendaient sur un accord de sortie de crise, comportant un cessez-le-feu et la nomination d'un premier ministre issu de l'opposition. Le général Bozizé avait gagné le pouvoir en 2003 par la force, avec le soutien du Tchad, allié de longue date dont les troupes resteront sur le territoire pendant plusieurs années. Alors que Bozizé avait apporté une certaine stabilité au coeur d’un pays où des rebelles congolais avaient commis de nombreuses atrocités, son putsch avait chassé le premier président élu suite à des élections multipartis, Ange-Félix Patassé, en 1993 après 33 ans d’une série de putschs qui avaient écarté nombre de dirigeants. Le premier cinq ans seulement après l’indépendance, geste de Jean-Bedel Bokassa, qui tiendra 14 ans avant de connaître le même sort. Son successeur tiendra à peine deux ans avant d’être chassé à son tour. 

Va-t-on éviter un nouveau cycle de violences dans ce pays que même Amnesty a dénoncé à ti- tre de pouvoir trop faible pour faire face à la rébellion? Tout va dépendre de la période de l'après-sommet, de nombreux rebelles regrettant que le président reste en poste. "Le départ de Bozizé n’est pas négociable. Il ne veut pas partir mais il n’a pas les moyens de rester, avait précédemment déclaré un porte-parole. Ce dont nous devons parler avec les chefs d’Etat d’Afrique Centrale, c’est des conditions du départ de M. Bozizé”. 

Les rebelles avaient rejeté une première proposition d’intégrer des membres de la rébellion au gouvernement, menaçant d’avancer sur Bangui en accusant le pouvoir d’y commettre des exactions contre la population civile. Les rebelles accusent le président de crimes de guerre et crimes contre l'humanité. Mais les groupes internationaux, dont UNICEF, accusent les deux camps de poser des gestes extrêmes, l’organisation estime que plus de 300 000 enfants et jeunes Centrafricains sont affectés par les violences, les rendant plus vulnérables au recrutement. 

Pour l’hexagone, les anciennes notions de pré-carré sont officiellement des choses appartenant au passé. Le président français rappelait que “la France n’est pas présente en Centrafrique pour protéger un régime”, refusant catégoriquement d’“intervenir dans les affaires intérieures d’un pays. Il faut dire que Paris est déjà engagé au Mali, y envoyant des troupes cette semaine pour cibler "les terroristes" qui tiennent le nord du pays. C'était après avoir laissé entendre que des troupes africaines auraient été préférables pour une telle offensive.

Pakistan's new Bhutto awaits

While he remains too young to run during this spring’s elections, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari chose the fifth anniversary of his mother’s assassination to make a key speech on his vision of Pakistan, in fact launching his political career as the heir of the country’s most enduring dynasties. Bhutto’s speech took place in front of some 200,000 Pakistan People’s Party members and supporters near where Benazir Bhutto and her father were buried, at the family mausoleum near Larkana, ending years of waiting in the wings as PPP chairman while the widower of the late two-time premier served as president. 

Called a criminal by some, Asif Zardari has nonetheless managed to outlast many predecessors, putting him in course to become the first elected leader to complete a full term in office and ensure a peaceful transition. “Benazir sacrificed her life to uphold democracy,” Bhutto said referring to his mother, who was killed in 2007 while campaigning. “The bea- con of democracy continues to shine.” So too does the rich tradition of dynastic politics, some pointed out, something Pakistan has in common with rival India and nearby Burma, in a year where Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of the country’s founder, finally acquired a political seat after years of prison arrest. 

With the responsibilities come the risks, one outlined in a speech honouring the sacrifices made by politicians and activists in a country with a record of political violence. One growing scarier by the day in fact. While the aftermath of 9-11 has been obvious in neighbouring Afghanistan it has left deep marks in Pakistan as well, where some 45,000 have died in terrorist-related violence since, according to government figures, many in over 300 suicide bombings. According to the Daily Beast U.S. intelligence rates Pakistan among the countries most likely to fail by 2030. 

“How long you will go on killing innocent people? ... if one Malala will be killed, thousands will replace her,” he said of a 15-year-old schoolgirl and activist for girls’ education shot in October and currently recovering in Britain. “One Benazir was killed; thousands have replaced her.” As he spoke helicopters hovered overhead at a rally protected by some 5,000 officers. While he will be months short of the age of 25, the minimum requited to run, during this spring’s elections, he is expected to have an impact in a year the country faces eco- nomic troubles and violence, while the party is slammed by corruption allegations. 

Adding to the mix this week were renewed tensions with India in the sensitive Kashmir. “Putting Benazir’s son on a stage makes political sense. It’s a very poignant and emotional moment still for many people,” Osama Siddique, a professor at Lahore University of Management Science, told the Guardian, but he added it was hard to “visualise Bilawal” in a key position any time soon. 

It’s a reminder the transitions to a new dynastic heir are sometimes quite lengthy when they do occur. Bhutto paid tribute to his grand-father, using the slogan of the late populist who led the country in the 1970s before his assassination, describing the PPP as representing “food, clothes and shelter” for all. “A new Bhutto is emerging today in the shape of Bilawal who has vision of his mother and grandfather, and people are excited,” said Bhutto spokesman Aijaz Durrani. There’s more reasons why the upcoming vote will have a familiar ring, like many before it the election will pit the Bhuttos against the party of Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted in 1999 but could come back for a third term as prime minister.