Sad anniversary
As Europe marks the 20th anniversary of its single market, is it growing pains it is experiencing or an early case of mid-life crisis? Has there been too much expansion, or deepening of continental ties, and it is time to take a step back or is there enough optimism left to still forge ahead? Forget Scotland setting up a referendum in 2014, swelling independence marches in Spain or concerns about the euro, Europe looked to tighten further rather than loosen integration, officials at a Brussels summit last week agreeing on a loose timetable to establish a banking union.
We can then begin changing our decision-making methods and the deepening of our union, said French president Francois Hollande. This will be the big area of work in 2013. European Union leaders agreed to establish a single regulator with a broad oversight on the continents banks, but a start date had yet to be finalized, Germany preferring to slow the rush for change by signalling quality must come before speed. Coming on the heels of the announcement the EU had won this years Nobel Peace Prize, the summit was however not without clashes dividing the continents two major economic heavyweights, which usually made a point of showing up at these meetings appearing on the same page.
In addition to wishing an earlier start, France was not enthusiastic about an earlier German plan to give the EU a veto on countries budgets and said Berlins decision to go slowly on the regulator underlined a lack of urgency. German Chancellor Angela Merkel got leaders to push back the start of operations later in the year, one where she is up for re-election and facing an electorate wary of bailing out other countries. This compromise was reached to the dismay of countries such as France who would have preferred to act as soon as possible.
We need to work thoroughly but rapidly and reach final decisions ... as soon as possible. The crisis wont wait for politics,said Marianne Thyssen, the European Parliaments rapporteur on banking supervision. Some had a broader perspective on the weeks news, seeing it as just the latest move up the ladder of deeper continental integration. Ahead of the summits launch European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the euro area needs to evolve to a fiscal union... and ultimately a political union, stressing the present state of affairs was nourishing populist debates on the continent. But for some observers, the summit only served to illustrate the hurdles ahead for further integration.
(This) marathon session again illustrated how cumbersome and difficult the European decision-making process is, said ING banking analyst Carsten Brzeski. The summit took place with the usual sus- pects sparking concern of more financial turmoil, Greece struggling to reach a deal on austerity measures while Spain teetered on the brink of needing a bailout of its own. The tensions spilled in the streets where demonstrations took place in both coun- tries as well as Portugal, sometimes leading to clashes between authorities and protesters condemning new rounds of government cuts. A nasty anti-Merkel rally greeted the chancellor in a recent visit to Athens while details of Portugals draft budget sent thousands surrounding the parliament in Lisbon last week.
The budget calls for 2.7 billion euro in spending cuts and an average income tax hike of 3.4%, the only way the country could meet the terms of its bailout, according to officials. The margin of ma- noeuvre for unilateral decisions is nonexistent, said Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar, while the opposition slammed the budget as containing a fiscal atomic bomb. In Spain thousands of students took to the streets to protest education cuts to lower the deficit, which they said had resulted in cuts in staff and higher tuition fees. More pro- tests took place in Greece as strikes continued to grind the country to a halt, a 65-year-old man dying of a heart attack as firebomb-throwing demonstrators clashed with police. The measures are tough across the board, and Hollande says EU decisions on Greece must be implemented as soon as possible, but he hinted the continent could finally be seeing the light at the end of the dark financial tunnel.
We are very near the end of the eurozone crisis, he ventured as the summit began, saying joint Franco-German action, seemingly lacking at times, was an accelerating force for the continent. There were a few encouraging signs amid the bickering in Brussels and protests in southern European cities. Confidence Spain would not need a cash infusion caused investors to ask for lower returns on bond yields, a 10-year bond yield dropping to its lowest level since April in a sign a further crisis could have been averted in the largest European country to know such a crisis. In another encouraging sign, Portugals 10-year yield also fell below 8% for the first time since spring 2011.
But as the summit got underway Athens had yet to put the finishing touches to a $17.7 billion austerity bud- get package supposed to keep the bailout flow going, leaving much uncertainty on Greece and the continent as a whole. Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Commission, said the positive effect of the painful austerity measures were starting to be felt, point- ing to lower deficits and borrowing costs, but added nations are still suffering a lot on a continent where 25 million remain unemployed. According to him, the summit had missed the chance to be more pro-active on the key issue of job creation.
You have to recognise that when you talk about growth and employment, ... huge progress remains to be made, he said, calling the situation worrying. Serving notice, Spanish electors sent Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy a mixed mes- sage in Sundays regional elections, keeping him in control of Galicia, a region he has touted as a model for his economic-austerity program, but leaving his party well behind two nationalist parties in the Basque region, a possible spark for future nationalist sentiment. This comes weeks before elections in the Catalan region, where nationalist sentiment has been growing steadily.
The euro crisis has created much doubt at the heart of the single European market. While assuring his economy was looking brighter, Italys prime minister Mario Monti even ex- pressed fears the continental group risks rollback and even disintegration if it doesnt overcome its latest hurdles.
Cuba libre?
For years little illustrated Cubans flight to freedom like the Mariel exodus of 1980 of some 125,000 islanders from revolutionary shores to Florida, sparked after Havana allowed those who wanted to leave the country to do so after the economy took a nasty downturn. Since then Cuba has been encour- aged to do what it can to avoid a new exodus.
Still today, about 7,000 of the 30,000 Cubans who leave the country do so on rickety crafts defying shark-infested waters. Would making their travel dreams apparently more accessible make their journey less perilous but ultimately create a new rush for the exit? Or could it provide some relief considering potentially tougher times ahead? In what has been Havanas most daring reform since Raul Castros takeover from his brother, Havana is no longer requiring hard to obtain exit visas to leave the country but only a passport.
The move follows a series of reforms including the end of re- strictions for Cubans on everything from cell phone ownership to staying in tourist hotels, the legalization of car and home sales and lifting prohibitions on personal businesses. But the travel restrictions have particularly irked citizens of this island nation, making the change symbolic and transformative. These measures are truly substantial and profound, said deputy chief of immigration Col. Lamberto Fraga. What we are doing is not just cosmetic.
An editorial in the Communist partys newspaper, Granma, said the unpopular measures had been put in place because of policies adopted in Washington in the 1960s, especially those allowing Cubans who reach U.S. shores to stay there. Some restrictions will still remain on who can leave, especially those facing criminal charges or professionals whose departure could affect Cubas brain capital, in a country which has seen brain drains in waves.
For the million or so Cuban exiles, the reforms dont bring much of a change considering those declared undesirable or expelled are still prevented from returning, as well as so-called enemies of the political, economic and social principles of the Cuban state.
The update to the migratory policy takes into account the right of the revolutionary state to defend itself from the interventionist and subversive plans of the U.S. government and its allies, Granma wrote. Therefore, measures will remain to preserve the human capital created by the revolution in the face of the theft of talent applied by the powerful. But Cubans living overseas send some $2 billion back to the island nation, and Havana may be hoping that by allowing Cubans to travel they could bring back more cash or at least ease the pressure at home as it further experiences with decentralization and entrepreneurial initiatives, especially as it seeks to cut tens of thousands of public service jobs.
Some fear restrictions will now apply to acquiring passports instead of visas, and point to their prohibitive price ($110) in a country where monthly wages average under $20. Granma says the regulation changes do not constitute an isolated act and are part of the irreversible process un- derway to normalize relations with the countrys émigré community. But is it too much? Af- ter the flood of previous reforms, this one has some Cubans starting to question whether the islands revolution may not be that irreversible itself.
Look, I ask myself how far are we going to go with these changes. They have me a little confused because now all that was done during 50 years, it turns out were changing it, Maria Romero, a cleaning worker, told AP. But some U.S. lawmakers say that despite the announced changes, moves such as this one amount to little more than window dressing as long as a familiar family remains in power.
These so-called reforms are nothing more than Raul Castros desperate attempts to fool the world into thinking that Cuba is changing, said Florida Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. But anyone who knows anything about the communist 53-year old Castro dictatorship knows that Cuba will only be free when the Castro family and its lack- eys are no longer on the scene.
Espoir de paix aux Philippines?
Après des décennies de conflit et plus de 120,000 victimes, la paix risque-t-elle déclater enfin dans le sud des Philippines? Les négociations entre le pouvoir et les rebelles du Front Moro islamique de libération ne datent pas dhier et lhistorique ne manque pas déchecs - comme en Colombie où de similaires efforts de pacification sont en cours - mais la signature dun pacte pour la paix le 15 octobre constitue selon le président Benigno Aquino une chance en or afin d"aboutir enfin à une paix réelle et durable".
Si lexpression feuille de route rappelle pour certains le chemin cahoteux, interminable et toujours sans issue du parcours au Moyen-orient, il nempêche que linvitation du premier dirigeant rebelle au palais présidentiel pouvait suggérer une nouvelle étape afin de mettre un terme à quarante années de conflit dans le sud du pays, région où le mouvement islamiste livrait une chaude lutte pour lindépendance dans ce pays largement catholique.
Je viens ici lesprit en paix et pour forger un partenariat de paix, sur la base dun accord cadre entre le MILF et le gouvernement philippin, déclarait le chef du mouvement rebelle Mourad Ebrahim. Nous tendons la main de lamitié et du partenariat au président et au peuple philippins.
Le plan de paix prévoit la création dune région semi-autonome dans les iles à majorité musulmane de Mindanao, sujet à référendum. Dénommée Bangsamoro, la région rebaptisée connaitrait une certaine autonomie budgétaire en plus de recevoir sa part de recettes issues des ressources naturelles. Pour les Musulmans la loi charia y serait de rigueur au civil, et la région serait dotée de sa propre police. En revanche les rebelles devraient désarmer leur armée, environ 12000 personnes en tout, et renoncer à lindépendance.
Comme pour plusieurs régions autonomes à travers le monde, le gouvernement central serait responsable de la politique extérieure et la sécurité nationale. Mais déjà certains groupes disent rejeter une telle entente, notamment le mouvement islamique de liberté du Bangsamoro, alors que dautres groupes plus coriaces issus de la région, dont Abou Sayyaf, lié à la mouvance al-Qaida, risquent de ne pas être très émus par toute entente entre les rebelles du MILF et Manille. Selon le magazine Economist, les yeux nen sont pas moins rivés sur cette tentative de pacification dans la région, notamment en Thailande, aux prises avec son propre mouvement militant dans le sud du pays.
Un similaire accord de paix en Aceh en 2005 a depuis apporté la paix dans cet autre archipel de lAsie du sud est. Mais les deux parties aux Philippines savent trop bien que le travail ne fait que commencer sur la question, rappelant quon nen est pas à la première tentative de paix. En 1996 Manille et un autre groupe, le Front de libération national Moro, avaient signé un accord sans lendemain malgré la création de la région autonome de Mindanao. Le gouvernement avait accusé les rebelles dy répandre davantage la corruption et la pauvreté.
Comme le dit le proverbe, ce sont les petits détails qui peuvent tout faire dérailler. Beaucoup de travail reste à faire afin de récolter les fruits de cet accord cadre, a rappelé Aquino. Un comité de transition doit à présent sattaquer aux détails de lentente cadre afin de rédiger un projet de loi par la suite présenté au congrès. On espère avoir des dirigeants régionaux en place en 2016, année de la fin du mandat dAquino.
Après quatre décennies, nous avons la paix au bout des doigts, estime le premier ministre malaisien Najib Razak, qui a participé aux négociations. En prenant le pouvoir en 2010 Aquino sétait dressé lambitieux échéancier de régler les conflits internes en lespace de trois ans. Or le mouvement islamiste nest quun des deux qui minent le pays, la rébellion communiste, responsable de 40,000 morts, restant une des plus anciennes du genre sur le globe. Or le gouvernement compte sinspirer de sa lancée sur les islamistes pour poursuivre loffensive de paix avec le Parti communiste lors de pourparlers en Norvège. Le calendrier visé rappelle celui de Bangsamoro.
Lentente cadre avec le MILF démontre la sincérité du gouvernement afin de parvenir à une entente avec tous les groupes armés, déclara le négociateur principal Alexan- der Padilla. Nous espérons toujours signer un pact de la paix avec eux dici 2016.
Encore Hugo
La révolution bolivarienne poursuit son cours après la réélection de Hugo Chavez au poste de président, son quatrième mandat, un an après avoir livré un dur combat contre le cancer. La bête noire de Washington, en poste depuis près de 14 ans, a su résister à une farouche opposition dune 30 aine de partis unie sous la bannière de Henrique Capriles Radonski, jeune politicien et gouverneur de létat de Miranda, qui jusqualors navait pas connu de défaite électorale.
Chavez doit sa ré-élection à lappui massif des pauvres, mais aussi à un changement de loi constitutionnelle soumis à référendum lui permettant de briguer un nouveau mandat, qui lui aurait été sinon refusé par la loi électorale. Réagissant au résultat final sur Twitter, une invention pourtant gringo, Chavez déclara: Merci mon dieu, merci à tous et à toutes. Il avait promis lors dun nouveau mandat dassurer la pérennité de la révolution quil a lancée en redistribuant les richesses de son pays, notamment par la voie de la nationalisation.
Le Venezuela est à présent le pays aux réserves de pétrole les plus importantes au monde, dépassant lArabie Saoudite, mais un nombre grandissant délecteurs condamnent la corruption et lautoritarisme qui ont de plus en plus défini lère Chavez. Conscient des problèmes de criminalité et dinflation venus sajouter au lot,Chavez a promis d "être un meilleur président" au courant de son nouveau mandat.
Rien nillustre mieux les paradoxes de cette puissance énergétique que les pannes de courant qui peuvent baigner ses villes dans le noir, des incidents qui viennent parfois à bout de la patience des Venezuéliens. Sans nier les difficultés que traverse le pays, plusieurs partisans en liesse dimanche estimaient que Chavez restait lhomme qui pouvait le mieux guider cette nation de 29 millions dhabitants.Certes il y a de la corruption, trop de bureaucratie, mais les gens nont jamais connu de dirigeant qui aimait tant ce pays, confiait à lAP Carlos Julio Silva, voilà pourquoi ils vont le ré-élire.
Alors que lélection, surveillée par des milliers de militaires, a été jugée plutôt paisible et sans incident, plusieurs observateurs regrettaient que la campagne ait si fortement eu une saveur chaviste,les médias nationaux appuyant sans réserve lauteur de la révolution venezuelienne. La reconnaissance rapide des résultats, donnant Chavez vainqueur avec 54% des votes, par Capriles a soulagé plusieurs observateurs craignant des violences, vu les tensions des dernières semaines.
"Pour gagner il faut savoir perdre," dit-il. Plusieurs rassemblements politiques avaient été marqués par la violence, dont un incident où deux partisans de Capriles ont trouvé la mort. Une victoire de lopposition aurait créé dimportantes tensions entre le pouvoir et les institutions nationales, dont larmée, tellement linfluence de Chavez y est devenue tentaculaire depuis 1999. Alors que Chavez avait été renversé brièvement en 2002, des loyalistes au sein de larmée avaient joué un rôle important pour assurer son retour au pouvoir.
Déçu du résultat, Capriles se déclare tout de même fier de ce que nous avons bâti et sengage à continuer de travailler pour le Venezuela. Lopposition espère en effet améliorer son résultat lors des élections régionales en décembre, où elle tentera de saffirmer davantage sur léchiquier politique. Chavez a obtenu moins d'appui que lors des élections précédentes dimanche, mais le scrutin a selon lui démontré encore une fois "la transparence." de la démocratie venezuelienne.
Alors que certains en auraient le coeur net, Chavez a néanmoins réussi avec ses mesures à couper la pauvreté demoitiéauVenezuela,selon Mark Weisbrot du Center for Economic and Policy Re- search à Washington, en plus de faciliter l'accès à l'éducation, à la santé et aux régimes de pension, faisant de lui le champion incontesté des classes démunies, et un modèle socialiste pour plusieurs pays de la région.
Point Romney
Could it be a tight race after all down the stretch? The battery of debates that weeded out the GOP contender in the presidential campaign may have seemed redundant and excessive at times, they nonetheless helped prep the Republican candidate and his debate team for the true contest of the presidential TV duels. By most accounts Mitt Romney was the hands down winner of the Oct. 3 face-off against a president who has grown used to a less critical treatment, on a night that gave Republicans renewed hopes and left Democrats shaking their heads.
But with less than a month before the presidential vote, will this be enough to give Obama the Carter treatment, and deny him a second mandate, or only give false hopes to a former Massachusetts governor whose campaign had been leaping from one embarrassment to another after a series of clips from a video taped at a private fundraiser was made public? The nights performance was certainly a welcome development for the Romney camp, trailing in the polls and abandoned by some conservative supporters over the course of the last weeks.
The first debate showed a well-prepared and aggressive Romney, albeit one perhaps liberal on some of the facts, leaving the president on the defensive, and supporters conceding this one to the contender. Romney was es- pecially forceful on the critical issue of the economy and job creation, at a time sluggish growth at home seems threatened by the even starker outlook in Europe. I just dont know how the president could have come into office facing 23 million people out of work, rising unemployment, an economic crisis at the kitchen table and spend his energy and passion for two years fighting for Obamacare instead of fighting for jobs for the American people, Romney said. It has killed jobs.
In addition to looking on the defensive and uncomfortable, the president failed to point out the Romney campaigns slips of recent weeks, such as a quote suggesting 47% of Americans dont pay federal income taxes and would back Obama because they felt entitled to welfare, food and housing, a statement made during a private fundraiser shown to have had a negative impact on his campaign. The president didnt call him on these issues. Why?, commentator Charles Blow wrote in the New York Times, referring to Romney statements riddled with the, um, nonfactual. The president let Romney interrupt and talk over him. Why? The president didnt even mention Romneys secretly recorded statement about the 47 percent. Why? Later in the week Romney corrected himself actually, admitting the 47% statement had been just completely wrong.
The outcome of the debate seemed pretty unanimous at a crucial stage of the campaign. This was a disaster for the president for the key people he needs to reach, and his effete, wonkish lectures may have jolted a lot of independents into giving Romney a second look, wrote analyst Andrew Sullivan following the first sparring ses- sion. The debates outcome had former presidential candidate Al Gore going so far as to sug- gest altitude may have been responsible for the performance in the mile-high city. Obama arrived in Denver at 2 p.m. to- day just a few hours before the debate started, Gore said on his network. Romney did his debate prep in Denver. When you go to 5,000 feet, and you only have a few hours to adjust, I dont know...
The next day the presidents team sought to limit the damage by saying that while Romney, who had chosen a more moderate narrative, may have scored a few style points, inaccuracies peppered his performance, bordering on the dishonesty. Again and again and again, he told a story to the American people that is completely in contrast with what he said before and unfounded in fact. And thats going to catch up with him, senior campaign adviser David Axelrod said morning-after programs. I give him credit for a strong performance. I give him an F for being honest with the American people.
Obama himself suggested in a campaign stop the next day Romneys performance sought to hide the true nature of his campaigns statements because he knows full well we dont want what hes been selling for the last year. If there was any immediate encouragement, it was that the crowd the more combative Obama adressed numbered over 12,000 spectators.
The next day more good news came in the way of improved job numbers with the unemployment figure dropping under 8% (to 7.8%) for this first time in four years. But the numbers seemed too good to be true for some Romney backers, former GE chief executive Jack Welch suggesting the books may have been cooked. Unbelievable job number... the Chicago guys will do anything... cant debate so change numbers, a statement strongly criticized by Obama representatives, stressing the independence of the numbers source.
He was hardly alone, Gary Katlbaum, president of Kaltbaum Capital Management, telling clients in a research note: These unemployment numbers are rigged. The 8% unemployment rate has been a headline number for the past two years, so it was imperative that this administration got it under that number before the election. While not going so far, Romney had his own take on the numbers, which reached a high of 10.2% in 2009, stressing that: If not for all the people who have simply dropped out of the labor force, the real unemployment rate would be closer to 11 percent.
A setback for Obama, perhaps, but would the debates performance be enough to cut into his lead in national polls and in key battle-ground states? Polls ahead of the debate showed Obama most likely to win but challengers usually do well in first debates against a sitting president a bit rusty at the podium. Nobody is going to switch sides on the basis of this debate, suggested Samuel Popkin of University of California at San Diego. But a poll three days after the vote suggested a narrowed gap between the two, Obamas previous six-point lead having been trimmed to about two with one month to go before the election.
Respondents had told the Ipsos-Reuters polls they saw Romney under a more positive light after his performance. Many polls this week taken after the debate even placed Romney ahead. But will it last? New numbers this week also put jobless claims at a four year low, while Joe Biden's performance in the VP debate was largely seen as strong, the vice-president going on the offensive from the get go, bringing up the 47% and early on uttering a sentence some Democrats wished Obama had used himself: "With all due respect, that's a bunch of malarkey."
Georgia, the post-Soviet exception?
More than two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, democracy is still hard to find behind what used to be the iron curtain. Belarus held widely condemned elections in the land of the so-called last dictator of Europe, though some would argue Vladimir Putin would be another great contender. Kyrgyzstan has seen the latest attempt to storm government since the country became independent, this time after the president refused to nationalize a mining venture with a Canadian company.
Georgia on the other hand seems to have parted with the tradition of change through revolution by ushering in transition solely through elections, a rarity in this sphere. This effectively brings to an end the 2003 rose revolution of out- going President Mikheil Saakashvili, who initially declared himself a winner. But then he did something as rare as a snow-less Moscow winter: he conceded defeat to tycoon Bidzina Ivanishvili and his Georgia Dream coalition. Saakashvili survived facing off with powerful Russia during a brief 2008 war but in the end was brought down by accusations of authoritarian greed and human rights abuse, as damaging images emerged of physical abuse against prison inmates.
Irakli Alasania, once a member of Saakashvilis team but now in the opposition, slammed a culture of non-accountability. In essence, the rose had faded. Ivanishvili, listed in Forbes as the worlds 153rd richest man after making his fortune in Russia, was relatively unknown until he threw his hat in the ring last fall. His coalition includes everything from free-market liberals to xenophobic nationalists. But many members also look back longingly to pre-2003 Georgia, before tensions rose with Moscow as the country sought EU and NATO membership.
Ivanishvili says the priority is to improve relations with the giant next door, something critics say is closer to retuning Georgia in Russias sphere of influence, like Ukraine. Restoring relations with the Kremlin is one of our main tasks, and we will strive in every way to do this, he told CNN. First, we have to convince the Kremlin that our strategy towards NATO and Europe is not harmful to and does not contradict Russian interests. Feeding the dispute is the presence of Russian tanks in breakaway regions of Georgia loyal to Russia.
While Moscow was relatively silent during the election,Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev welcomed the change. The Georgian political landscape will be more di- verse, he said. It should be welcome because it probably means that more responsible and constructive forces are coming to the parliament. But to critics the incoming prime minister means a return to the past and undoing Saakashvilis more positive accomplishments.
Belarus on the other hand is a place where time has stood still, in fact the country gets ever closer to the worst standards of Soviet elections, Valentin Stefanovich, co-ordinator of the Rights Activists for Free Elections group, told AP. Observers condemned the parliamentary vote in which not a single opposition politician won a seat. No that it really matters, as the legislature is considered a rubber-stamp body for President Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994. They also doubt figures that boast a 74% participation rate.
This election was not competitive from the start, said Matteo Mecacci, observer mission leader of the OSCE. A free election depends on people being free to speak, organize and run for office, and we didnt see that in this campaign.
In Kyrgyzstan however, its been hard to ignore the opposition as thousands marched the streets and tried to storm parliament over a venture at the Kumtor mine operated by Canadas Centerra Gold Inc, angering nationalists. Previous protests in 2005 and 2010 turned violent and toppled sitting presidents. Nationalists have been angered by what they consider a sell-off of Kyrgyzstan to foreigners.
Bureaucrats in the government promised that they would take Kumtor back and it would work for the good of the people ... Kumtor belongs to our nation, and we must change the entire state system and replace this government, said Kamchibek Tashiyev of the nationalist Ata Zhurt party. The Canadian mine accounts for 12 percent of the nations GDP.
New protests in the Mideast
When U.S. warships were sent off the coast of Libya a year ago the Mideast country was in the throes of revolution, Muammar Gaddafi hanging on to dear enclaves of support while the rebels gained ground in the latest Arab country swept by the revolutionary fervour of the Arab Spring. The ships were there to support the ally campaign and monitor waters off the volatile continent, which had seen regimes topple in Tunisia and Egypt. On a cargo ship a U.S. diplomat who once had been tasked with restoring ties with Gaddafis regime was back with a new mission, as Washingtons envoy in the volatile east of the country, where the uprising had started and the next leadership was being formed.
This September, the ships were back amid new protests, along with dozens of Marines to secure U.S. citizens after that diplomat, Chris Stevens, and three other U.S. officials were killed during an attack in Benghazi. Violent protests over an inflammatory U.S. amateur film depicting the Prophet Mohammad were cited as reasons for upheavals in Cairo, where the embassy was also targeted by mobs, Tripoli, and other Mideast cities, but officials think the attack on the Benghazi consultate was too organized and violent to be solely tied to protests that were a throwback to the 2006 outrage over Mohammad cartoons.
If anything, the attacks were a re- minder of the continuing instability the country is seeing less than a year since Gaddafis death, and weeks after a first election was held. Some have hinted the killing by heavily armed men was revenge by supporters of the previous regime. The date itself, Sept. 11, had some looking at the regional arm of Al-Qaida, Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, as being behind the attack on a high-value hard target. Despite the threats they face across the world including missions in Afghanistan, no U.S. ambassador had been killed since 1979.
Libyan extremists were blamed for the siege of the compound, which had also been targeted earlier this year, which lasted hours until initially outgunned Libyan and U.S. forces were able to regain control of it. But while Libyan officials said they suspected al-Qaida was behind a well-planned attack by rocket-propelled grenade-launching assailants, the UNs U.S. ambassador said insurgents had largely tagged along a protest against the inflammatory film. This week however, the White House said the killing was an act of terrorism.
The incident tightened security at U.S. missions in the region and placed foreign policy briefly on the electoral agenda as Mitt Romneys campaign blamed Barack Obamas Mideast policy failures and the mixed messages sent by his administration for the incident. Obama vowed justice will be done but admitted relations with the new regimes were a work in progress", terms he used to describe Egypt.
I dont think we would consider them an ally, but we dont consider them an enemy. They are a new government that is trying to find its way, Obama said of the country that had been a key strategic ally until Hosni Mubaraks downfall. He said the government in Cairo said the right thing and taken the right steps but added its response to the new turmoil may not be aligned with our interests.
If they take actions that indicate they are not taking those responsibilities, as all other countries do where we have embassies, I think thats going to be a problem, Obama said. Egypts leadership then promised to protect embassies in the capital. But on the week- end Prime Minister Hisham Qandil stressed it was unacceptable to insult our Prophet and the U.S. must do all it can to prevent this. This week the prosecutors office in Cairo went further, ordering the arrest of seven U.S.-based Egyptian Coptic Christians for their alleged involvement in the film as well as that of supportive U.S. pastor Terry Jones, who stand accused of insulting the Islamic religion, insulting the Prophet and inciting sectarian strife.
Cairo is where Obama had first made an appeal to the Arab world after winning the presidency, seeking a new fresh start on U.S.-Arab relations. Called a faux pas by some, other analysts said Obamas choice of term served notice to new regimes in the region. I think its a message from Obama that taking a less than assertive position on this is going to cost the [Egyptian] leadership at least rhetorically in the short term, Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies, told The Cable. We heard that the Muslim Brotherhood was going to be a cooperative partner and their actions and statements yesterday were not a good example of that."
Protests continued in Cairo over the movie, which had recently been translated into Arabic and first sparked anger there, spreading to other countries like Tunisia, the first to be swept by a wave of anti-government protests last year. In Yemen protesters emulated Egyptians by storming the em- bassy ground and burning the U.S. flag before being pushed back by security forces. Other protests were reported in Morocco and Sudan, forming an Arab Fall with a very different significance for the West.
Cairo had been the scene of other violent protests against embassies since the revolution, one attack against Israels mission was repelled by Egyptian commandos, praised for saving diplomats lives. Protests extended to Tel Aviv, where Israeli Arabs demonstrated in front of the U.S. embassy, and Lebanon leaving two dead. In all around 30 were killed in half a dozen countries during the protests.
Travelling in Lebanon at the time, Pope Benedict XVI urged religious leaders to root out fundamentalism. Religious fundamentalism seeks to take power for political ends, at times using violence, over the individual conscience and over religion, the Pope said. All religious leaders in the Middle East (should) endeavour, by their example and their teaching, to do everything possible to uproot this threat, which indiscriminately and fatally affects believers. But the U.S. soon removed diplomatic staff from Sudan and Tunisia, indicating the crisis was not close to being resolved.
Clashes blamed on the film even reached Nigeria after Friday prayers and as far as India and Indonesia in the East. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton rejected the little-known low-budget movies contents as disgusting and reprehensible. Its director, reportedly a Coptic Arab American living in California, was said of seeking police protection, fearing for his life after the incidents unravelled. Protesters also directed their anger at U.K. and German embassies, even though the countries have no connection to the movie.
Other countries, such as Canada, also closed some regional embassies hoping the crisis would blow over. The movie, an amateurish production which was largely shot in front of a screen and actors claimed had been crudely dubbed to include references to the Prophet Mohammad, depicted the latter as a violent and womanizing individual.
Monday militant group Hezbollah held a new series of protests over the film. Muslims would not be silent in the face of this insult, leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah said. He made a rare public appearance during the protest, calling the movie the worst attack ever on Islam and saying the U.S. faced very dangerous consequences if it allowed longer ver- sions of the movie to appear.
The controversy hardly died down in the media meanwhile, as satyrical French magazine Charlie Hebdo, firebombed last year for publishing Mohammad cartoons, printed more in this weeks edition, sparking security warnings at French embassies, days after Newsweek released its latest controversial cover featuring rioters under the headline Muslim Rage with the sub-headline How I survived it, how we can end it.
Asia's latest island dispute
Hundreds of mostly small islands pepper the South China Sea, an archipelago lying in one of the worlds most important sea lanes and over valuable natural resources, few are sizeable or even inhabited, but sometimes it seems like every single one of them is at the heart of a major international dispute.
Even the seas name appears to be in dispute it seems. Last week the Philippines said it would rename part of the South China Sea as the West Philippine Sea, in a continuing dispute which began in April over the ownership of the Scarborough Shoal. China was not amused, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei saying the move violated the international standardization of geographic names.
China has repeatedly urged the Philippines to stop such man-made disputes that complicate the situation in the South China Sea, he said. This wasnt even the latest territorial dispute involving the regional power, as thousands of Chinas citizens took to the streets in a number of cities to protest Japans decision to purchase the contested Senkaku or Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea. Protesters confronted police at the Japanese embassy, while other clashes took place in cities such as Guanghzhou targeting Japanese businesses.
China dispatched six vessels to the islands, which are also claimed by Taiwan, sparking concerns in Washington that the dispute could turn into a major regional confrontation.
A misjudgement on one side or the other could result in violence, and could result in conflict, Defence Sec. Leon Panetta warned during a tour of the region. A number of defence treaties involve the U.S. in the region, the U.S.Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty potentially entangling the worlds superpower in the Scarborough Shoal dispute if it escalates. Also lying in some of the worlds busiest shipping lanes in waters rich with fish and floating over potential sources of hydrocarbons, are the Chinese-occupied Paracels, con- tested by Vietnam and Taiwan, and Spratlys, claimed by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei. China said it was establishing a military garrison in the Paracels.
The Diaoyu clash is just the latest flap between the two regional rivals, protests in Beijing and other cities taking place with the tacit approval of local authorities however concerned they might spin out of control. Analysts fear the U.S. decision to boost its presence in Asia may have emboldened its allies to stand up to China.
The United States does not take a po- sition with regards to territorial disputes, but we do urge not just China but the other countries that are involved to engage in a process in which they can peacefully resolve these is- sues, Panetta said. During his visit, taking him both to Japan and China, Panetta said the U.S. also hoped to deepen military relations with the worlds most populous country.
Japans decision to purchase the islands is actually viewed by some as a de-escalation on the issue, a local governor having sought to take them over to develop them. But the country was not expected to back down in an election year. Doing particularly well in the polls is Toru Hashimoto, whose re- cently launched party, Nihon Ishin no Kai (the Japan Restoration Party), wants to dramatically alter domestic politics. The populist politician would in part rewrite the countrys constitution to allow for the right to collective self-de- fence.
Meanwhile Japan was asking China to take steps to protect its citizens in the country, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda urging both sides to stay calm. While managing the crisis Tokyo will also have to appoint a new ambassador to China. Recently-appointed envoy Shinichi Nishimiya, 60, died Sunday after collapsing a few days before in Tokyo. He was expected to take over the post in the fall.
In the meantime the clash threatened to disrupt trade and commerce as some Japanese companies, such as Panasonic, Honda, Nissan and Canon, suspended some operations in China, while a Chinese daily raised the spectre of economic sanctions.
In struggles concerning territorial sover- eignty, if Japan continues its provocations, then China will take up the battle, the Peoples Daily wrote. Chinese officials said this week they hoped to settle the issue through peaceful negotiations, but meanwhile Japanese activists made a brief landing on the islands on the anniversary of the 1931 Mukden incident. On Sept. 18 of that year Japanese soldiers blew up a railway in Manchuria, which served a pretext to invade China. Its memory far from having faded.
Un vent patriotique en Catalogne
En Catalogne non plus le rêve dindépendance nest pas mort. Alors que la péninsule ibérique entière sombre dans le marasme économique, cette région plus favorisée mais au bilan économique encore bien triste a réuni une des foules les plus importantes depuis des années pour rappeler ce projet que tient à coeur de nombreux habitants de la métropole du nord-est.
Alors que le Québec fait porter des séparatistes au pouvoir et que les indépendantistes en Ecosse méditent sur un projet de référendum, ces deux autres contrées ne sont pas venues près dorganiser un rassemblement aussi nombreux, 1.5 million de fidèles en tout, en caressant leurs propres rêves de souveraineté.
La Catalogne est fatiguée de sa relation avec Madrid, constate le président de la région Artur Mas, peu après le rassemblement monstre, dont lampleur avait causé des sueurs froides aux organisateurs débordés. Il sagirait selon lui dailleurs dune fatigue mutuelle: Je pense quil y a un certain parallèle entre ce qui se passe entre la Catalogne et lEspagne et ce qui se passe entre lEurope du Nord et lEurope du Sud, dit-il. LEurope du Nord est fatiguée de lEurope du Sud.
Le rassemblement, le 11 septembre, marquait le 300e anniversaire du siège de Barcelone. Ces dates symboliques jouent un rôle important au sein des mouvements dindépendance, la date circulée pour un éventuel référendum en Ecosse, 2014, coïncidant avec une bataille historique.
Mais même si elle représente un cinquième de la richesse du pays, la Catalogne nest pas moins à la merci des créanciers, elle qui vient dobtenir 13 milliards deuros pour refinancer sa dette. La marche de Barcelone se voulait également une manifestation contre le pouvoir fiscal de Madrid, que voudrait rapatrier la région.
Selon le premier ministre Mariano Rajoy, qui doit rencontrer Mas bientôt, une plus grande autonomie fiscale catalane ne changerait en rien la donne nationale, le pays poursuivant sa dégringolade économique lors des trois derniers quarts. La Catalogne est en fait la région la plus endettée du pays, soit 21% de son PIB de 200 milliards deuros, son PIB rétrécissant de 3,9% lan dernier.
Mais Mas soutient qu"il y a une part très importante de la société catalane qui veut être une nation". Le jour même cependant, la grande finance rappelait la faiblesse financière de la région, lagence dévaluation financière Fitch menaçant de placer la note de la Catalogne (BBB-) en catégorie spéculative, en raison des problèmes de liquidité. Une autre agence, Standard & Poors, avait déjà placé la région en catégorie spéculative (note BB) le mois précédent, craignant notamment de nouvelles tensions avec Madrid.
Selon un sondage du journal La Vanguardia datant de juillet, 51,1% des Catalans voteraient «oui» lors dun référendum sur lindépendance, contre un peu plus du tiers il y a une décennie. Cette fin de semaine des manifestations avaient lieu en Espagne et au Portugal contre les dernières mesures budgétaires, le gouvernement à Madrid résistant pour linstant à la tentation de faire appel à une bouée de secours financière que plusieurs analystes estiment nécessaire.
Soirée de tragédie au Métropolis
Cétait un moment historique, il devait être réservé à la joie, puis il a basculé dans la tragédie. La principale intéressée, première chef détat de lhistoire du Québec pour reprendre son ex- pression, était en plein milieu de son discours victorieux lorsque deux paires de mains se sont emparées delle. Elle a juste eu le temps de leur demander quest-ce qui se passe?
Ils nont guère eu le temps de lui répondre, et ce nétait pas par méchanceté mais nécessité. Les centaines de spectateurs rassemblés par le chant de cest à ton tour et formant une vague de drapeaux bleu et blanc nont pu que suivre la scène ébahis. Peu de gens connaissaient alors vraiment lénormité de l'incident, et ceux qui étaient au courant couraient des risques terribles.
A 63 ans Pauline Marois a connu sa part de hauts et de bas après des décennies passées en politique. Elle a même pu contempler une période de retraite de la vie politique, en 2006, avant de refaire le grand saut devenu nécessaire après la catastrophe péquiste de 2007. Mais des moments comme ça, comment les décrire? Les Américains, dont les campus, salles de cinéma et Times Square ont fait la manchette de la sorte en succession juste au courant de lété, ne savent pas mieux les décrire.
Quelque soit votre tendance politique, la percée de Pauline était à savourer, comme le premier vote des dames, même si le ton pouvait revenir sur la divi- sion politique du pays. Mais au lieu de faire le rappel dune première historique, la soirée pouvait rappeler le drame de Polytechnique par moments.
Le lendemain de la fusillade du Métropolis, comme en 1989, les gens se sont rassemblés sur le lieu du drame avec des chandelles et des mots dencouragement. Il en fallait. Parmi eux, des membres de la famille de la victime, Denis Blanchette, unis dans les pleurs, la douleur, et la certitude que son héroïsme avait empêché le massacre.
Lintervention du technicien et de son collègue Dave Courrage, un nom de famille si évidemment mis en lettres majuscules dans la liste des chefs daccusation, ainsi que du sergent Stéphane Campagne, avait été capitale. Car avec son arme semi-automatique, et les quatre autres armes apportées à loccasion, Richard Bain avait larsenal d'une bande armée. Mais il fera exception aux Marc Lépines et Kimveer Gills en survivant le geste pour peut-être raconter son état desprit.
Certains sont à se demander si le discours pourra être cohérent ou dans la lignée des Les anglais se réveillent! balbutiés lorsquil était conduit, lui aussi les deux bras emparés par des hommes armés, dans lautopatrouille. Les gens qui lont connu ne retrouvent dans ce personnage pas les traits de lhomme daffaires qui voulait si desespérément lancer sa pourvoirie. Dautres parlent dun suivi médical pour troubles mentaux.
Ces 24 heures nauraient-elles pas dailleurs été éprouvantes démotion sans cet abrutissant carnage? La soirée électorale avait même par moments laissé penser à limpensable: une surprise libérale à presque teindre le visage des sondeurs rouge comme ce cher carré. En fin de compte moins d1% auront séparé la première et deuxième place, mais Jean Charest savait, de son expérience en 1998, que même remporter le vote populaire ne suffisait pas, il fallait le consolider dans des régions lucratives.
Avant cette date où il avait fait le saut en politique provinciale, 14 autres années, au fédéral. Ainsi quand il rend sa révérence le lendemain du scrutin, il aura passé autant dannées au fédéral quau provincial, on ne peut plus fédéraliste dans larène québécoise. Le champion du Non de 1995 déchu, doit-on reprendre le front constitutionnel?
Le débat là-dessus ne fait que commencer, les observateurs estimant que le PQ est loin d'avoir le mandat de se lancer dans l'aventure référendaire, un thème cependant abordé avec enthousiasme lors de la campagne. Autant de thèmes dimportance et de moments forts, et pourtant, quelques minutes quil faudrait dire de folie - si le terme nétait pas presque à éviter en loccurrence - auront suffi à réduire la soirée à un fait di- vers. Du moins selon la rubrique internationale, qui a pendant ces quelques mo- ments été captivée par le moment choc de la campagne de 2012.
Geste de paix en Colombie?
Lorsque le dirigeant rebelle Alfonso Cano est décédé lors dune attaque de larmée colombienne lan dernier, un des coups les plus durs encaissés par les Forces armées révolutionnaires de Colombie, le président Juan Manuel Santos a cherché à éviter tout triomphalisme, proposant immédiatement la tenue de pourparlers pour mettre fin au conflit meurtrier de presque 50 ans.
Les rebelles ont cependant balayé le geste de la main, promettant de poursuivre la lutte armée tout en louant la résistance immortelle du peuple colombien, qui préfère mourir plutôt que de se jeter à genoux. Un an plus tard, les durs du Farc repensent-ils enfin cette initiale intransigeance?
Cest ce quon pouvait espérer après lannonce selon laquelle le gouvernement colombien aurait engagé des discussions avec les rebelles, une tentative de paix qui nest cependant pas sans rappeler les échecs du passé. Il y a plus de 20 ans les gestes douverture et de confiance de Bogota sétaient en effet soldés par un échec cuisant, les rebelles utilisant une large zone cédée par le gouvernement pour y établir de nouvelles bases pour la guérilla et étendre leurs réseaux de drogue.
Mais lheure est à loptimisme, le groupe se disant prêt cette semaine à prendre part aux pourparlers sans haine ou arrogance. Santos se dit même prêt à ouvrir des négociations avec un autre groupe rebelle, lArmée de libération nationale (ELN). Nous avons eu des discussions exploratoires avec les Farc pour tenter de parvenir à la fin du conflit, a-t-il déclaré.
Il espère cependant éviter les erreurs du passé en indiquant que les of- fensives de larmée se poursuivraient lors des négociations. Est-il ainsi possi- ble de jouer à la fois les soldats et les diplomates, ou cet équilibre se doit-il alors à la vulnérabilité du Farc?
Déjà peu après le décès de Cano, qui a été à la tête du groupe pendant trois ans, Santos estimait la cause rebelle largement perdue. Politiquement ils ont perdu la bataille, plus de 95% de la popu- lation les rejette, et ils sont considérablement affaiblis sur le plan militaire, a-t-il fait remarquer.
Les activités du Farc ont largement diminué suite aux succès dune armée comptant sur un important soutien américain dans ce conflit qui a fait plusieurs dizaines de milliers de morts. Washington aurait versé plus de 8 milliards de dollars dans la lutte lors des douze dernières années, fournissant de léquipement haut de gamme comme les hélicoptères dattaque Black Hawks. Les rangs du Farc auraient fondu de moitié entre temps, comptant environ 9000 rebelles de nos jours.
En février le groupe déclarait abandonner la tactique denlèvement pour rançon, tandis que le congrès posait les fondements juridiques dun éventuel accord. Lappui de Hugo Chavez est également remis en question, celui-ci ayant eu plusieurs problèmes de santé et se voyant confronté à une chaude lutte électorale. Mais le groupe na pas renoncé à la lutte armée pour autant, six personnes ayant perdu la vie lors dune attaque associée au groupe quelques jours avant lannonce présidentielle.
LELN pour sa part aurait exprimé son ouverture sur la question dun dialogue avec le gouvernement. Un ancien conseiller présidentiel savoue cependant perplexe face à lapproche choisie par le gouvernement: Il aurait été préférable de lancer ces dia- logues avec un cessez-le-feu, fait remarquer Alfredo Rangel, lidée de tenir un dialogue alors quune confrontation a lieu est une idée dont les faiblesses semblent évidentes.
Religious clashes rock Kenya
It isnt unusual for Kenya to experience electoral violence ahead of always tense presidential polls, even if those remain a year away. But in addition to the ethnic clashes that have left 200 dead since the beginning of the year, new religious strife has enveloped the mostly Christian country, following the assassination of two clerics on a terrorism watch list, sparking fury in largely Muslim Mombasa.
Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga pleaded for calm, calling on citizens to avoid inter-religious war as police clashed with Muslim youths following the assassination of radical preacher Aboud Rogo Mohammed, suspected of having ties with regional Islamist group al-Shabab. Last week a grenade was thrown at police, killing one officer and injuring over a dozen, one day after one was killed and others hurt as churches were attacked in apparent acts of revenge. More followed the next day, targeting more law enforcement.
Lets act with restraint as law enforcement agencies get to the root of the matter, Odinga said. Much suspicion surrounds the killing of Mohammed, felled in broad daylight in a drive-by shooting. Some, including Mohammeds wife, accuse authorities of carrying out a targeted assassination.
It is you policemen who have killed him, we dont want a post-mortem or any help from you, Khaniya Said Sagar told police. The Muslim Human Rights Forum decried the shooting as an extrajudicial killing. Police deny any involvement and accuse al-Shabab, whose struggle with the regime in neighbouring Somalia has sent thousands seeking refuge in Kenya, of seeking to foment trouble.
Odinga said leaflets circulating in Mombasa and Nairobi claiming he was behind the killing were utter lies and said the government would compensate churches and businesses at- tacked and vandalized by the protests. Al-Shabab itself con- demned Mohammeds death, urging Kenyans to boycott next years election.
Muslims must take the matter into their own hands, stand united against the Kuffar [non-Muslims] and take all necessary measures to protect their religion, their honour, their property and their lives from the enemies of Islam, the al-Qaida-linked group said in a statement. Mohammeds death follows that of cleric Samir Hashim Khan in April after he was abducted with a colleague who remains missing.
Mohammeds suspected links with the Islamist group placed him on US and UN sanctions list, for providing financial, material, logistical or technical support to al-Shabab. He had previously been charged and cleared in 2002 attack of a hotel which killed 12. Unlike Nigeria, another country that has seen religious strife but where they represent half the population, Muslims represent only about 10% of the people in Kenya.
Kenya was already tense before the religious strife, Kenya Red Cross officials saying the country was entering a sadly familiar pattern of pre-electoral violence responsible for dozens of deaths. The previous week tribal clashes killed over 60 people between Pokomo farm- ers and Orma cattle herders, in the latest flare-up between the two groups. Violence has either preceded or followed every election in the last 20 years, 2007 clashes becoming particularly bloody over contested election results. Some 1,000 were killed and over half a million displaced in the clashes.
Violence often takes places near borders, especially near Somalia, where guns are more readily available, Red Cross head Abbas Gullet tells AP. He fears this years violence, in part provoked by political rivalries, could eclipse that of previous election run-ups. As we continue for the next six to seven months before the election it is clear that this pattern will continue unless something is done drastically, now and not tomorrow.
Its about governorship, its about senatorship, its about members of parliament, and women representative, and boundaries of communities that have co-ex- isted for centuries, he said. Abdullahi Halakhe of the International Crisis Group says there are other underlying causes for the riots. The entire coastal region feels extremely disenfranchised by the state," he says. They feel like they are internally colonized by the Kenyan state. They can go through a list of issues that they feel like the state has done economically and otherwise to marginalize them.
Le choc en Afrique du sud
La police sud-africaine s'était engagée à mettre fin à la révolte liée au salaire de la mine de Manikana après une dizaine de morts dont deux policiers. Ainsi lorsqu'une troupe de mineurs armés s'est dirigée vers une colonne de policiers le 16 août la réaction a été immédiate et mortelle. Pendant dix secondes, avant le premier appel au cessez-le-feu, les tirs ont retenti avec une répétition endiablée, causant un vacarme qui a étouffé le cri des victimes.
Lorsque la poussière est retombée, 34 personnes avaient été tuées et plus de 70 blessées, aggravant davantage le triste compte des éclats et plongeant le pays sous un choc inconnu depuis la fin de l'apartheid. La police dit avoir agi en état de légitime défense contre des agresseurs coupables de « violence publique, meurtre, tentative de meurtre, rassemblement illégal, possession d'armes dangereuses». 259 personnes ont également été arrêtées. Selon la chef de la police nationale, Riah Phiyega « le groupe des grévistes a chargé en direction de la police, tirant des coups de feu et brandissant des armes dangereuses. Les policiers se sont repliés et ont été forcés d'utiliser la force maximum pour protéger leur vie ».
Mais quelques heures plus tard, sentant la colère d'une nation horrifiée, le président Jacob Zuma annonçait la création d'une commission d'enquête pour faire la lumière sur la tragédie. Sur le site du drame pendant plusieurs jours des manifestants se regroupaient dans le silence, tandis que des femmes reprenaient des airs de l'apartheid en brandissant des pancartes ou on pouvait lire: « Police, arrêtez de tuer nos maris et nos fils ».
Deux jours après la tragédie de nombreuses familles déploraient ne pas avoir de nouvelles de leurs maris manquants et regrettaient que les autorités n'aient pas encore une liste complète des morts, blessés en emprisonnés.
«Ces événements ne sont pas ce que nous souhaitons voir (...) dans une démocratie qui respecte l'Etat de droit, et où nous sommes en train de créer une vie meilleure pour tous, déclarait Zuma, qui a décrété une semaine de deuil national. Nous sommes pleinement engagés pour que ce pays reste une nation paisible, stable, productive et prospère, concentrée sur l'amélioration de la qualité de vie pour tous.»
Mais pour plusieurs éditorialistes, les images, dont celle de la vidéo du drame circulée sur le petit écran et internet, renvoyait le pays aux années noire plus de cinquante ans en arrière, notamment à la tuerie de Sharpeville en 1960, lorsque 69 personnes sont tombées sous les balles des policiers lors d'une manifestation anti-apartheid. Selon le journal Times, les images du drame « semblaient appartenir à une Afrique du Sud du passé, lorsque les confrontations entre la police et les civils étaient monnaie courante (...) Mais ces images n'étaient pas des images de l'apartheid ».
Cette semaine l'archevêque Desmond Tutu condamnait l'incident de "massacre". Le jour même le ministre de la défense présentait ses excuses après des mineurs, alors que les familles bénissaient le site de la tragédie.
Manque d'entrainement des policiers ou surenchère des syndicats sur le dos de mineurs misérables ne partageant en rien les richesses minières qui ont fait du pays une puissance continentale, autant d'explications avancées pour tenter de répondre aux nombreuses questions des familles des victimes.
Le dirigeant populiste Julius Malema, exclu de l'ANC pour y avoir semé la division, n'a certainement pas calmé le jeu en se rendant sur les lieux accusant la police "de n'avoir aucun remords" et exigeant la démission du président. Malema faisait jusqu'à récemment partie d'une aile radicale du seul parti porté au pouvoir depuis la fin de l'apartheid, qui demande l'intensification des efforts contre la pauvreté et les importantes inégalités au pays. Cette semaine, celui-ci portait plainte pour tentative de meurtre et agression contre la police.
Certains, dont l'homme d'affaires Cyril Ramaphosa regrettaient de telles paroles étant donné les tensions que traverse le pays: "C'est malheureux qu'il ait choisi une scène comme celle-là, ou il y a tant de tristesse et de colère, pour empirer la situation," confie-t-il à la BBC.
La fusillade n'a pas tardé à retentir sur la scène politique de ce pays à parti pratiquement unique. Selon le journal Sowetan, la tragédie exigeait des mesures importantes du gouvernement, faut de quoi il devait rendre sa démission. "La vie d'un Africain ne vaut pas cher" malgré toutes les bonnes intentions mentionnées dans la constitution, estime le journal.
Dans un pays ou le taux de chomage officiel est de 25% la mine représente depuis deux siècles un employeur important, mais les salaires y sont plutôt maigres, ses employés vivant dans des taudis sans eau courante. Les manifestants cherchaient tripler un salaire qui les laissait près du seuil de pauvreté. Pour certains, ce genre d'incident met en évidence le manque d'action du gouvernement auprès des classes plus pauvres.
« Je pense que (la violence des mineurs) est un signe d'une grande tension sociale en Afrique du Sud, expliquait à l'AFP le chercheur en sciences sociales Daniel Silke. Il y a eu très peu d'amélioration dans la vie des gens depuis des décennies et le gouvernement n'a pas été capable de faire face à cette frustration ».
L'appel au retour au travail initial cette semaine sous menace de licenciement, n'a fait que davantage causer la colère des grévistes.
« S'attendre à ce que nous retournions au travail, c'est comme une insulte. Beaucoup de nos amis et collègues sont morts et on s'attendrait qu'on reprenne le travail? Jamais », s'est écrié Zachariah Mbewu, un gréviste.
Les propriétaires de la mine ont par la suite retiré la menace de sanction, un comité gouvernemental jugeant le geste contre l'intérêt national.
La ministre des mines Susan Shabangu, a de son côté appelé les sociétés minières à améliorer la condition de leurs employés et partager la richesse. "Si nous pouvons vraiment travailler ensemble, dans un esprit de collaboration (...), nous pouvons tirer profit de cette tragédie pour éliminer nombre des mauvaises pratiques qui persistent dans le secteur minier".
The crisis in eastern Congo
No sooner was the sentence read over the summer, giving former Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga 14 years for enlisting child soldiers in the violence that scarred the country's east a decade earlier, that there was a reminder violence in that part of the world is hardly something that belongs in the past, even after conflicts claiming over 5 million deaths, and international justice there has plenty more work to do.
Also being sought by the International Criminal Court, which celebrated its first conviction and sentencing, is Gen. Bosco Ntaganda, wanted for war crimes in the ongoing violence that is spreading dangerously close to a country some blame for being behind the instability.
An ethnic Tutsi like most the Rwanda's leadership, Ntaganda is seen as an inspiration to mutineer soldiers, the so-called M23, who took up arms this year a failed peace agreement going back three years ago. M23 advances against the regional hub of Goma have led to clashes between the rebels and UN and Congolese troops, sendings tens of thousands fleeing the fighting, in turn creating a humanitarian crisis.
The soldiers deny UN accusations they are backed by Rwanda, but there's growing evidence both from the UN and independent reports that Kigali's hand is behind the disturbance.
A UN group of experts issued a damning report in June that pointed the finger right at high-ranking Rwandan officials, including the minister of defense, claiming the had important roles forming and supporting the M23 rebellion. Integrated into the Congolese army in 2009 following a peace deal reached after a similar incursion in eastern Congo in 2008, the group mutinied in April over pay. They later moved on Goma claiming civilians were being targeted there for they support of Rwanda. Both they and officials in Kigali deny Rwanda is involved.
"Our intention is to let the international community know that the problems bedevilling this country are not due to interference from neighbouring countries, the problems facing us are caused by ourselves right here in DR Congo," said Jean-Marie Runiga Rugerero, who says he is the leader of the rebels' political wing. "There is total disregard and abuse of human rights here in this country. There is no democracy in this country."
But last month a number of Western countries went with the UN's version of events and imposed sanctions on Rwanda, the U.S. suspending military aid to the country. This month media reports added to claims captured soldiers said they had been trained in Rwanda, many choosing to enlist with the army only to escape poverty back home.
Talk of Rwandan involvement isn't entirely surprising. Despite the country's small size and population, it has for years punched above its weight in the region. Rwanda's President Paul Kagame had after all sent his armies into the country before, when he wasn't turning to proxies to support a Tutsi-led rebellion in eastern Congo in 2008. The area has hardly seen rest since, being rich in minerals fueling the insurgency.
Last week Rwandan opposition members and Congolese groups called for Kagame himself to be added to the liste of those investigated for war crimes by the ICC, branding him "an assassin".
Their lawyer Christopher Block said the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda could launch a case against Kagame, claiming it has a mountain of evidence against him in its archives.
The latest violence, which the rebels say targets Tutsis in the region, has sent over 200,000 people crossing into Uganda and Rwanda. Mass population movements across these borders go back decades, about a million Hutus having crossed into Congo after the 1994 Rwanda genocide. Since Rwanda has sent soldier into Congo twice to target Hutus rebels based there, fearing they were planning future offensives against Rwanda.
Behind the insecurity in eastern Congo is the lack of resources by the government in Kinshasa to keep order in its relatively faraway and easily influenced eastern regions.
This weekend the Southern African Development Community joined its voice accusing Rwanda of being behind the crisis in eastern Congo and looked to send a mission there to halt that country's support of M23 rebels. Rwanda's actions threatened the entire region, leaders warned during their summit.
Then came Paul Ryan
With Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney neck and neck with his rival in the polls and the U.S. campaign of 2012 a borefest rather forgotten during county fair season, is the young congressman from Wisconsin what the GOP campaign needed to regain the momentum just over two months before the election?
After the initial fumble, Romney's introduction of Paul Ryan as the "next president of the United States", and short honeymoon where the duo appeared to large southern and Midwest crowds that seemed infused with a new energy, the road to the convention will involve much dissecting of the 42-year-old conservative some doubt is old enough to be an eventual commander in chief.
Despite his youth, which was emphasized in speeches he would pepper with terms such as "cool" and "awesome", Ryan is far from being a political novice, having been first elected in 1999 and being chair of the House budget committee, where some rather controversial ideas that have endeared him with the Tea Party have seen the light of day. Observers note this may not be a bad thing to rally GOP support among those critical of Romney's lack of staunchly conservative values.
Among those ideas was a plan, Path to Prosperity, which critics say would bring significant changes to Medicare, changing it into a voucher system. According to the Miami Herald, this could hurt the ticket's chances on the key state of Florida, which makes Ryan's selection something for even Democrats to cheer about.
The "path" would also see significant budget cuts to rein in the deficit and balance the budget by about 2040, a plan critics say would decimate most government programs while seeking to cut business and individual taxes. There's concern Ryan may only have the approval of conservative Republicans, but will scare away the crucial moderate vote.
According to a Gallup poll, Ryan's choice was welcome by only 39% of people polled, the poorest ratings of any VP contender since 2000. In fact in recent years only Dan Quayle in 1988, was given a similar negative rating. Not that this prevented Bush's election in any way. In contrast 46% and 47% had welcome Palin and Biden in the 2000 tickets.
Obama himself referred to Ryan as "a decent man" and an "ideological leader" but one that would champion "top down" policies that favour the rich.
"Congressman Ryan is a decent man. He is a family man. He's an articulate spokesman for Governor Romney's vision. But it's a vision that I fundamentally disagree with," he said.
Observers note the choice of VP has at least added substance to an otherwise dull campaign.
"We've gone from a Seinfeld election about nothing to a meaty discussion on the budget," Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics told CBC.
With unemployment around 8.3% and changing little, the Republican camp tends to be seen as stronger on the economic issue.
Ryan said the U.S. was seeing the results of and paying dearly for the many policies passed under the current administration.
"A country with four years of trillion-dollar deficits. A country in economic stagnation. The worst economic recovery in 70 years
we're not going to take that, we're going to turn this thing around," he told a Wisconsin crowd.
Ryan's stump speeches have echoed now republican calls for change in order to make America great in the world again.
But critics say his lack of foreign policy experience will be no help to a presidential candidate who fumbled on the topic at every stop of this summer's short overseas campaign.
I think his (Ryans) experience as a vice presidential candidate is thin; or for a future president and commander-in-chief, its virtually absent, former congressman Tim Roemer told Reuters.
But the GOP camp contends Ryan has considerable foreign policy experience dealing with the Defense budget, and beyond that: Paul Ryan has the same amount of foreign policy experience that Barack Obama had when he was sworn in as president, said Romney advisor Eric Fehnstrom.
Hot enough for ya?
For most people its meant little more than an inconvenience. Burnt grass, water restrictions, maybe a few small brushfires or a higher power bill to keep the air conditioning running. But in some areas the seasonhasleftascaron the land and burnt holes in wallets. Tornadoes in the Prairies, record high temperatures and droughts hitting farming in the East, and thats just the colder half of North America at the midway point of this blistering summer. Add similar heat waves in the U.S. on the back of last years devastating Texas-Oklahoma drought, sparking agriculture emergencies in both countries, and you at the very least can look forward to higher food prices, and possibly expect more scorching weather in the years ahead, according to the godfather of global warming.
Wineries on the other hand, wouldnt have it any other way. Is the torrid summer of 2012 what the Mayans were warning us about and a sign of things to come? The latter wouldnt be off target according to top U.S. scientist and activist James Hansen of NASA, whose recent statistical study finds the increase of occurrences of such wild weather in the last years is such that it can only be due to man-caused global warming. Odds of such freak conditions went from 1 to 300 in the 1950s through the 1980s to somewhere close to 1 in 10 today, his figures say.
It is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change," he wrote in an opinion piece as his research was ap- pearing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. To the contrary, our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate change. And this was looking at incidents preceding this years sizzling statistics across the continent. The statistics include last years U.S. drought, the preceding years heat wave, which caused thousands of deaths in Russia and the Middle East, and a 2003 scorcher that caused thousands of death in Europe, especially in France.
Climate dice, describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have be- come more and more loaded in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming, he and his colleagues write. An important change is the emergence of a category of summer- time extremely hot outliers. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1 per cent of Earths surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10 per cent of the land area. Want a big land area? Scientists reported in July Greenlands massive ice sheet shrank in unprecedented fashion. Over four days it more than doubled its thawed ice area from 40% to 97% of the ice sheet.
Ice cores from Summit show that melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average. With the last one happening in 1889, this event is right on time, Lora Koenig of NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center told the BBC. But if we continue to observe melting events like this in upcoming years, it will be worrisome. The news came days after satellite images showed a massive iceberg twice the size of Manhattan had broken off the territorys Petermann Glacier. The skeptics wont be swayed. Scientist John Christy of the University of Alabama said the time period chosen, 1950s-1980s, corresponds to a quiet time for extremes and represents a poor reference. Martin Hoerling of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration said Hansens interpretation was flawed scientifically.
The weather patterns responsible for most of todays heat waves would have happened regardless of human-induced climate change, he said. But a mounting amount of literature is making an increasingly convincing case for climate change. This week the European Union and small island states slammed the U.S. for backing away from a UN goal of limiting global warming to below two degrees Celsius. Officials said governments should stick to their target, one their U.S. counterparts say is unworkable.
World leaders pledged in Copenhagen (2009) to stay below the two-degrees Celsius temperature increase. What leaders promised must now be delivered, said European Commission spokesman Isaac Valero-Ladron.
Global warming or not, Eastern Canadian farmers living through the driest spell in decades are resorting to something drastic: calling for provincial help as they sell their livestock because they cant afford to feed their animals. Thats due not only to local conditions but the ripple effect of a U.S. Midwest drought pushing up corn and other prices. According to a Reuters survey of analysts the worst U.S. drought in half a century will produce the smallest ending stocks next summer in 17 years. If this sounds Dust-bowly in any way you may not be surprised it follows a statement by U.S. scientists calling July the hottest month ever recorded, breaking a record set during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The average temperature was 77.6 degrees, breaking the 1936 mark by 0.2 degree, according to NOAA.
While crops suffer, so do the livestock farmers down the chain who use corn and other products to feed what ends up in the meat section. Livestock farmers, especially beef producers, are struggling even more because they rely so heavily on feed crops, says Dan Darling, the president of the Ontario Cattlemens Association. Hay needs to be harvested, and cattle need pasture. But right now, thats not possible. As a result of this hit on commodities, food prices can expect to grow by as much a 4% next year according to economists.
This will trickle through the cost of production for food, and eventually will have an impact at the grocery store, said Patricia Mohr, a commodity markets specialist at Scotiabank. That means higher prices for everything from pork to poultry, pasta, salad dressing or baked goods. A particular concern for struggling families in a sluggish economy. The first shot across the bow? A 5 cent hike in muffins at Tim Hortons, 10 cents per sandwich.
In fact the price rises are already being recorded across the board with rains in Brazil and delayed monsoon in India adding to global agricultural woes this year. The result is world food prices have spiked 6% from June to July according to the UNs Food and Agriculture Organization, grain and sugar prices leading the way. Crop damage alone isnt responsible for the already alarming spike in corn prices given the shift in recent years of growing corn as food to corn as ethanol fuel. Brazils sugar cane fields meanwhile have suffered due to rain, not drought. But poor rain in Russia and Australia is also making the global outlook less than ideal.
For some farmers in Canada in particular, the costs will be considerable this year. Renfrew County farmer Robert Dick is glad to hear Ontario farmers will be getting disaster assistance, but some of it comes too little to late. His farm boasted 500 heads of cattle at the end of July, but hes since had to make an extremely difficult decision to sell off nearly a third of it. His operations, like others across the province, have been devastated by conditions that have seen as little as half the average rainfall come down this year. Thanks to the weather, we werent going to have enough grain for all of our cows, he said.
Quebec's student election
Its nine years into Quebecs old Liberal gang and the ruling party is behind in the polls, albeit not by that much, but this campaign isnt about that old subject matter, its about something fairly new. In fact, according to Jean Charest himself, who once described holding a vote on the issue as grotesque, its about the most specific issue theres ever been an election about. Ironically, its also about actors who are notoriously absent from the electoral scene and dont bother to vote.
So this year student associations in Quebec behind the six-month-old protest movement are canvassing in their own end to bring out the vote... for anyone but the man who would slap on new tuition fees in the province where university costs are the lowest around. And when theyre not bringing out the vote, theyre shadowing the man once known as Captain Canada, greeting him outside venues to jeer him or tearing down party candidate campaign posters.
The minute Charest walked out of the lieutenant-governors office to dissolve the legislature he grabbed the first camera-clenching tourist for a photo op, but hes since conducted things behind doors, and away from potential red-square wearing uninvited guests who have vowed to make campaigning difficult for him and his candidates. The choice of secure Jean Lesage airport to formally launch the campaign was symbolic in this way, and unencumbered by unscreened visitors. This is how George W. Bush had to spend the last few years of his presidency.
Is the end near for Charest as well, looking to tie a longevity record by winning a fourth consecutive mandate? Polls put her party ahead, but opponent Pauline Marois is personally polling even lower that the Sherbrooke-born premier, and hardly represents the new and fresh face of the future, though she could set history herself and become Quebecs first female premier, another angle forgotten by the education narrative.
To mention a Quebec election and the potential of a PQ victory without ever getting into separation issue, one the PQ is being rather discrete about by not guaranteeing a referendum in case of victory, is already fairly odd. (Marois said she would like a referendum in a first mandate, but well see. And if she is elected with a minority, this wouldnt be an option). But theres a new party for those, especially hardline card-carrying members, who think the PQ is being too soft on separation, and its called Option nationale, which probably made its only headline of the election when it launched its rather amusing campaign.
It was leader Jean-Martin Aussant, not Pauline, who said loud and clear sovereignty was his partys raison dêtre. Denying hes a communist, just a big fan of Rene Levesque, Aussant said the province had to nationalize its natural resources and provide services such as free education, something sure to catch the ear of the students, who are being wooed passionately by the PQ. After having recruited a former student leader among her star candidates, Marois promised to cancel the tuition hike, which symbolically begins the day of the election, the emergency law put in place to restrict protests which had broadened the appeal of the demonstrations, and called on a national summit on education. She was practically back to wearing her red square again.
The students meanwhile, gearing up for a turbulent return to classes, were back in the streets, greeting the electoral launch with more night marches in Montreal and a launch of their own campaign to make their voices heard until the election. Indeed this one will be like few others after the most sweeping student protests in Canadian history. Will Printemps Erable be followed by a government downfall as well?
Students dont vote, notes Concordia political scientist Paul Hicks. If they did, that might change things, if they dont and only infuriate electors more by staging wild riots, that may send voters running to the incumbent, making them, he says, the wild card. Another wild card could also be the CAQ party, which chose as star candidate Quebec's anti-corruption crusader. Youll have to agree the year has been pretty wild all along in la belle province already.
Les femmes des JOs
Rayonnante de fierté Bahya Mansour Al Hamad saluait la foule le sourire aux lèvres lors des cérémonies douverture des Jeux olympiques. Une des premières athlètes féminines du Qatar à participer aux jeux, dont la discipline est le tir à la carabine sur 10 mètres, celle-ci représentait tout un symbole à ces jeux où trois nations du Golfe envoyaient finalement des femmes porter leurs couleurs. Toutes les équipes nationales sont ainsi représentées par des femmes pour la première fois. Un pas vers légalité sportive en conséquent lors de ces troisièmes JOs à Londres?
Il faut dire quon est loin du ratio des premiers jeux accueillis par la capitale britannique il y a plus dun siècle, lorsque moins de 10% des athlètes étaient féminins (37 sur 390). Ajoutant à la quasi-parité (45%) de ceux de 2012 est le nombre record de pays comptant des femmes dans leurs rangs. Mais lhistorique participation féminine de pays très conservateurs, comme lArabie Saoudite et le Qatar, à la grande fête du sport amateur, na pas eu lieu sans anicroche. A la veille de la cérémonie douverture, le Comité international olympique interdisait la participation de la judoka saoudienne Wojdan Shaherkani, qui devait à lorigine, selon les exigences du royaume, être habillée selon les normes de la charia.
Or le port du voile lors de cette discipline a été initialement rejeté par le CIO, pour des raisons familières évoquées dans dautres disciplines sportives, soit les risques détranglement. Plus tôt cet été la FIFA permettait le port du voile après des années de controverse entourant le hijab au ballon rond. Une semaine plus tard à peine cependant, on interdisait une jeune fille de Gatineau de participer à une compétition locale, prenant à la lettre les directives de la FIFA, qui selon les organisateurs navait pas encore fourni de détail sur la nouvelle réglementation. Mais à quelques jours de son premier combat, un compromis était atteint sur le port du voile, le CIO permettant Shaherkani de porter un hijab dun modèle particulier et sportif pour participer à la compétition. Ces modèles sont disponibles depuis un bon moment déjà dans certains pays qui ont dû se pencher sur la question.
Mais cette décision nétait pas près de mettre fin au débat dans le Golfe, certains Saoudiens traitant les athlètes féminins de putes sur les réseaux sociaux, tandis que plusieurs médias nationaux ont simplement ignoré ces athlètes. Dautres cependant ont choisi les mêmes moyens pour les défendre: Des femmes marchant au sein dune délégation saoudienne voilà qui est historique, déclarait une internaute, ensuite nous porterons le drapeau et nous marcherons côte à côte comme des égaux. Le geste pourrait-il avoir des répercussions à domicile?
A un jour du coup denvoi des JOs, linterdiction de Shaherkani a créé beaucoup de remous, même si lathlète, relativement nouvelle dans cette discipline, ne devait pas se rendre bien loin dans cette compétition. Le match a dailleurs duré à peine 82 secondes, celle-ci se pliant à son adversaire beaucoup plus expérimentée du Puerto Rico. Mais cest avec beaucoup de fierté quelle se retira de la compétition: Je suis heureuse dêtre aux Olympiques, dit-elle. Malheureusement nous navons pas remporté de médaille, mais dans lavenir ce sera le cas et je serais une étoile de la participation féminine.
En revanche, belle revanche pour Caster Semenya, la spécialiste des 800 mètres dont le genre avait été mis en question, qui elle aussi a été choisie pour porter les couleurs de son pays, lAfrique du sud. Puis cette semaine la tunisienne Habiba Ghribi devenait la première femme médaillée de lhistoire tunisienne, en décrochant largent sur le 3000m. steeple. Un salut à la révolution? Je dédie cette médaille à toutes les femmes tunisiennes, dit-elle, alors quun débat sintensifie sur le rôle de la femme en Tunisie, alors quun parti islamiste veut apporter des changements à la constitution qui selon certains menace le principe dégalité des sexes.
Le lendemain de sa grande entrée, où elle avait porté une tenue noire plutôt conservatrice sous les couleurs blanc et pourpre de la bannière nationale, Al Hamad devait déjà savouer vaincue dans sa discipline cependant, son 17ème rang lexcluant de la finale. Mais le résultat nallait pas changer grand chose en fin de compte. Je suis heureuse et fière, déclarait-elle. Sa coéquipière, la sprinteuse Noor Hussain al-Malki, a connu une compétition à la fois brève et tragique. Celle-ci a trébuché dès le départ au 100m. avant de se tordre de douleur. Elle a dû quitter la piste en chaise roulante.
Quasi-égalité sur le plan présence - faut-il mentionner lintroduction de la boxe féminine? - mais sur le plan performance parfois avec les exploits de la nageuse chinoise de 16 ans, Ye Shiwen, battant non seulement un record du monde, mais faisant mieux que lAméricain Ryan Lochte sur les derniers 50 mètres du 400m. La surprise était telle que plusieurs observateurs ont cru au dopage, une version corrigée par les autorités britanniques. Shiwen a également remporté lor au 200m., établissant un autre record féminin. Pourquoi après tout, après toutes ces percées, une femme ne pourrait-elle pas faire mieux quun homme?
Le grand bond écolo chinois?
Il ne sagit peut-être pas dun printemps arabe saveur locale, dans un pays où le soulèvement a dailleurs été censuré à outrance, mais dune victoire tout de même pour les démunis, au coeur dune puissance économique proie à dimportants clivages entre riches et pauvres. Deux projets de développement denvergure ont été annulés en Chine en juillet suite à dimportantes manifestations parfois violentes contre des intentions jugées polluantes.
Le dernier était près du coeur économique de la puissance du milieu, Shanghai, où la contestation a fait rage, le siège du gouvernement local de Qidong ayant été mis à sac par des manifestants qui nont pas été intimidés par les forces de lordre. Des milliers de personnes avaient défilé contre un projet de pipeline qui devait transporter les eaux usées dune usine japonaise située à une centaine de kilomètres de là. Ce nétait peut-être pas le printemps chinois, mais le traitement de la nouvelle a été le même par les autorités, qui se sont empressées à censurer toute mention de Qidong sur internet après lincident.
Les autorités ont néanmoins jugé nécessaire de mettre un terme au projet relié à la papeterie. La municipalité de Nantong a décidé dabandonner définitivement le projet de rejet deaux usées dans la mer : nous demandons aux habitants de rentrer chez eux, rapportait la police. Victoire donc contre ce flux denviron 150 000 tonnes deaux usées par jour contre lequel sopposaient les manifestants, les derniers à faire fléchir les autorités locales à propos dun projet jugé polluant.
Dans ce pays où un léger ralentissement économique fait suite à des années dindustrialisation effrénée, la grogne sociale augmente contre la pollution des campagnes, qui font les frais de la croissance sans borne des dernières décennies. Printemps sino-arabe ou non, ce mouvement contestataire a également été rendu possible grace aux sites sociaux, celui de Weibo - le Twitter chinois - comptant 300 millions d'abonnés, dont plusieurs ont choisi de répandre la nouvelle presque extraordinaire des semaines précédentes.
Plus tôt en juillet dautres manifestants avaient également mis un bâton dans les roues dun projet dusine métallurgique dans la province du Sichuan, après des affrontements parfois violents avec les forces de lordre. La contestation nest presque plus une exception. Lannée précédente des manifestations contre une usine fabricant des panneaux solaires avait également connu un certains succès à Haining, alors que les habitants de Dalian forçaient le déménagement dun complexe pétrochimique.
Les autorités locales avaient tenté de décourager les manifestants à Qidong en les bombardant de messages texte, mais ces derniers ont pris la rue en grand nombre, saccagant des bureaux administratifs et renversant des voitures de police, craignant principalement la pollution de leau locale dans une région industrielle importante du pays que Pékin a tout fait pour mettre en valeur aux yeux des investisseurs. Située dans l'importante région du delta du Yangtse, la ville est également un cen- tre industriel important pour la pêche, industrie qui pourrait être fortement atteinte par une pollution des eaux.
La compagnie nippone niait cependant tout risque de contamination. La pro- tection environnementale est une priorité chez nous, déclarait le groupe de papier Oji. Mais un ras-le-bol généralisé se fait sentir dans plusieurs communautés ces dernières années au coeur du géant économique, dont les citoyens nhésitent plus à prendre la rue contre les nombreux projets industriels implantés dans les régions.
Is the end near in Syria?
For Syrias increasingly threatened and isolated regime, the enemies are no longer at the gates, they are well inside the fortress and among the shrinking inner circle of Bashar al-Assad, who lost a relative when a bomb went off during a national security headquarters meeting, striking at the heart of the apparatus of repression. Among the victims was defence minister Gen. Daoud Rajiha as well as Assad's brother-in-law, Deputy Defence Minister Assef Shawkat. Various groups claimed responsibility for this deep paranoia-inflicting blow, generating questions about inner-circle loyalty, and whether the end is nigh for the Alawite regime of over four decades.
This came soon after more morale-rattling blows, including the defection of a high-level army general and Syrias envoy to Baghdad, not to mention the spectacular flight to freedom of a Syrian jetfighter pilot, among the elite of the armed forces. By then the Red Cross has declared the conflict, which has claimed over 16,000 lives - 1,000 for every month - a civil war, as observers tried to make sense of the latest bloodshed claiming hundreds of lives in the Sunni village of Tremseh in embattled Hama province.
U.S. concerns the regime was moving chemical weapons, a throwback to threats under another regional dictator, Saddam Hussein, further pressured the UN to act against Damascus defiance, but Russia and China for a third time killed a UN Security Council resolution to bring tougher sanctions against Syria, saying they opened the way to military intervention. Not hiding his disappointment, British Foreign Secretary William Hague condemned the use of the veto as inexcusable and indefensible.
The U.K. and other veto-holding UNSC members are more determined to act against Assad, at least in terms of imposing sanctions. They say the resolution was non-military in nature. Other countries such as Saudi Arabia are more actively supporting Syria's opposition. The head of the opposition Syrian National Council said the strike marked the beginning of the end for Syrias leader.
This is the final phase. They will fall very soon, Abdelbasset Seida told Reuters. Today is a turning point in Syrias history. It will put more pressure on the regime and bring an end very soon, a matter of weeks or months. But not everyone is convinced were seeing the last days of the Assad regime, University of Western Ontario professor Peter Fragiskatos pointing out the military remains strong.
The opposition tends to ignore the fact that the regime is still very strong, he told CBC. It has hundreds of thousands of soldiers and its most elite elements have not defected. Syrian army defections have largely come from the countrys Sunni Muslims, he points out, adding: If the Alawite defect en masse, were in for a change. But for Washington, the blast in the capital could only mean the beginning of the end of not only 16 months of repression, but over four decades of Assad dictatorship.
I think the incident today makes clear that Assad is losing control, said White House spokesman Jay Carney. All of our partners internationally need to come together to support a transition. While Syrian troops mobilized to keep capital in their grip, the rebels were taking border positions at Turkish and Iraqi crossings, showing the regimes shrinking ability to control the country as a whole.
Syrians meanwhile fled the fighting in the capital, pouring into neighbouring countries. In one of them, Jordan, King Abdullah called the bombing this week, which killed four and injured other officials, a tremendous blow for the regime. Others werent so sure, pointing to the regimes resiliency over the years. But it has never faced something like this, indicating the country may have at the very least reached a turning point.
The UN meanwhile has to decide if it is renewing its observer mission to the country, one which has often found itself in the crossfire, leaving special envoy Kofi Annan shak- ing his head at the prospects of peace. The UNSC however seemed no closer to reaching the kind of unity of words and action Annan sought by initially delaying the ill-fated vote on the latest resolution, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accusing the West of inciting the Syrian opposition, and saying the resolution considered would only increase the violence.
Moscow and Beijing had twice previously vetoed such resolutions, China again insisting it would have nothing to do with the use of military force in Syria. Washington meanwhile has pounced on Russia for supplying Syria with the weapons it is using to carry out its repression. Talks between Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin this week showed how far apart the two capitals were on possible sanctions, only agreeing the violence had to stop.
While newly appointed Syrian Defence Minister, Gen. General Fahad Jassim al-Freij denounced the July 18 attack as a cowardly terrorist act vowing to chase down the criminal terrorist gangs and cut off every hand that harms the security of the homeland, observers concerned about the aftermath of a regime collapse pointed out the attack bore the hallmarks of Islamist terror strikes, fearing the infiltration of radical islamists, and according to Jordans Abdullah, possibly al-Qaida.
Syria has been transformed into a major bat- tleground of the jihad world, with a number of foreign and Syrian jihadist groups surfacing to participate in the conflict," wrote analysts in a report from the Institute for National Security Studies. This development not only poses a serious threat to the present Syrian government or any government that may follow, but also threatens the armed opposition in Syria, headed by the Free Syrian Army.
L'exception libyenne
Le parcours révolutionnaire a été plus sanglant quailleurs, et des tensions persistaient de façon à faire retarder la première élection de laprès-Khadafi, mais en fin de compte cest vers un parlement non islamiste que semblait se diriger le peuple libyen moins dun an après la mort du tyran de Tripoli.
Pourtant lautomne dernier le Conseil national de transition avait semé plusieurs craintes en annonçant que la charia serait la principale source de législation au pays. Mais aux urnes en juillet, un vote reporté par quelques semaines en raison des violences dans plusieurs coins du pays, cest une figure familière et emblématique de la révolte de 2011 quont choisi les Libyens.
A la tête de lAlliance des forces nationales, lhomme fort de la révolte Mahmoud Jibril signait notamment des succès dans la capitale et à Benghazi, point de départ des militants devenus héros de la révolution libyenne. Le succès fut tel que les Frères musulmans, bien moins influents quailleurs dans la région, savouaient vaincus avant même les résultats définitifs, incapables dimiter les succès islamistes enregistrés du Maroc en Egypte depuis le printemps arabe.
Il faut dire que ces succès aux urnes laissaient dans ces pays parfois place aux prises de bec avec les militaires, notamment au Caire où ils ont fait appel à la dissolution du parlement, un geste soutenu par les tribunaux mais rejeté par le nouveau président. Mais en Libye, les forces en présence étaient bien celles qui avaient traversé le pays en conquérants et livré la sentence de Khadafi sur le champs.
Selon les premiers résultats lAlliance de Jibril remportait 39 des 80 sièges réservés aux partis. Les frères durent se contenter de moins de la moitié, environ 17. La composition du parlement reste cependant à être définie en raison du nombre de candidats indépendants et Jibril refuse d'être perçu comme candidat laïque, mais le peuple a bien attendu 60 ans pour tenir sa première élection libre, souvenir lointain dindépendance.
Environ 100 partis participaient à ce vote historique. Jibril a aussitôt fait appel à la formation dune co- alition pour gouverner le pays. Les Libyens ordinaires ont voté pour les candidats quils connaissaient, pour les têtes quils avaient vu à la télé, expliquait à France 24 Abdelkader Kadura, professeur de droit constitutionnel à luniversité de Benghazi.
Avant même les résultats officiels Jibril faisait appel à la réconciliation nationale, alors que certains groupes procédaient encore à des échanges de tirs nourris. Je pense quun de nos plus gros défis est de convaincre nos partenaires potentiels, surtout les forces islamistes, quil est temps de se rencontrer autour dune table pour discuter dune destinée dans lintérêt du peuple libyen, livrait-il à la chaine CNN.
Généralement paisibles, les élections ne se sont pas écoulées sans violence, on rapportait des irrégularités et au moins un mort. Peu de temps après la précarité de la sécurité était rappelée suite à lenlèvement du président du Comité olympique libyen Nabil Elalem.
Happy anniversary...
With protests shaking the north and economic turmoil rocking the south, this isnt the latest chapter of the Arab spring but Sudans ongoing messy divorce one year after South Sudans independence. Both parties have stated publicly they are seeking lasting peace, their leaders agreeing to sit down in a recent summit in Ethiopia, but little has been made public about the nature of talks, leaving some to speculate tensions are far from ending along the 10th parallel.
Triggered by inflation, as some of the Arab revolts were a year ago, the protests in Sudan, seeking nothing short of regime change, have been met with violent police crackdowns. Local group the Organization for Defence of Rights and Freedoms said Friday worshippers were met hit with tear gas and rubber bullets the moment they left mosques to start demonstrating after prayers in Khartoum. Authorities were taking no risks days after opposition parties said they were launching a campaign to oust the 23-year-old regime of indicted war criminal Omar Bashir.
As in last years Arab Spring protest, critics of the government started stirring as high food prices took their toll, the first protests beginning at the University of Khartoum. Tax hikes and the end of fuel subsidies also raised the ire of Sudans citizens in various parts of the country. Activists say hundreds of people have been arrested since the protests began in mid-June. Demonstrators are hoping to emulate those who took to the streets before them, toppling regimes in the 1960s and 1980s.
After 23 years of endurance, the Sudanese people have decided to say enough is enough, Sudan Change Now, one of the groups said using social media site Twitter. These protests although initially trig- gered by the economic crisis in the country, are more than that; they are protests against a dicta- torship, an oppressive, corrupt, incompetent government that has lied to us for two decades and must be stopped. Social media also played a huge part in last years protests, and like the Arab Spring, the demonstrations have come with various themes, such as Sandstorm Fri- day and The Friday of El- bow-Licking.
Sudan is using these protests as an excuse to use violence and intimidation to silence dissenters, said Human Rights Watchs Africa director Daniel Bekele. The end of the roadmap for peace between the warring north and south, last years split may be behind the worsening situation, not just in the north but in the continents newest country, struggling South Sudan. It hasnt helped that skirmishes about the border and key oil fields and infrastructure began as soon as the country was cut in half, both nations sharing a critical petroleum network to get the precious black gold out to markets.
While Khartoum lost important oil fields to South Sudan with separation, the South is dependent on the norths infrastructures and ports to bring its resources to world markets, making them both suffer economically due to the clashes. Both sides agreed to peace initiatives at the beginning of the month, focusing on the contested border regions.
We have agreed ... to the unequivocal commitment of the two parties to never solicit force to settle their disputes and differences and to commit themselves to the cessation of hostilities, Al-Jazeera reported Sudan defense minister Abdelrahim Mohamed Hussein saying. He added both countries were trying to normalize relations.
During first anniversary celebrations, South Sudans president Salva Kiir reminded the countrys primary threat was a return to war with Sudan. Since our independence, Khartoum has continuously violated our sovereignty through aerial bombardments and ground in- cursions, he said. While Khartoum is hamstrung by costly expenses to try to rein in Darfur, the South is struggling to pay for the day to day operations of its nascent administration, apparently already short $4 billions due to corruption.
The country was calling for citizens to help foot the bill of its army as South Sudan struggled with the same inflation (80%) and shortage, made worse by the revenue cuts brought on by the oil quarrel coupled with an influx of refugees streaming in since independence. The army is also trying to keep warring tribes separated, many of the new countrys woes being internal.
Some 120,000 refugees meanwhile remain crammed in squalid camps, where conditions are such that survival is a struggle. These people have fled terrible violence in Sudan and lost family members during their arduous journeys for safety, and now they are sitting exposed in refugee camps on a flood plain and dying from pre- ventable diseases due to horrific living conditions, said Tara Newell of MSF.
Le nouveau défi d'Armstrong
Alors que se bouclait la grande boucle, d'importantes accusations contre son plus grand champion venaient à nouveau entacher le sport cycliste. Après un parcours contre le cancer héroïque et cette marque du maillot jaune sans pareil, c'est dans l'arène de l'arbitrage que se déroule le dernier défi auquel fait face Lance Armstrong, celui qui pourrait bien mettre fin à son extraordinaire légende sur deux roues.
Car le coureur de Livestrong, qui a fait du nom un synonyme de la lutte contre le cancer, n'était-il pas apparu à un moment ou le sport traversait les scandales de la Festina, entre autres, mettant fin progressivement à l'éternel débat du au nombre égal de victoires (cinq) remportées par Miguel Indurain, Bernard Hinault, Eddy Merckx et Jacques Anquetil?
Mais déjà à mi-parcours lors de cette illustre carrière, le Texan a été talonné par des rumeurs de dopage, certaines circulées par des membres du circuit, d'autres par des journalistes.
Le feu vert officiel de l'agence anti-dopage américaine, USADA, aux procédures disciplinaires du septuple vainqueur et cinq autres coureurs ont cependant fait grimper les allégations à un nouveau niveau, lançant l' "affaire" dans les tribunaux, ou Armstrong a à son tour déposé une plainte contre l'agence, sans succès cependant. Selon lui l'USADA n'aurait pas la compétence d'entendre son cas, violant son droit à un procès équitable.
Ses avocats parlaient de véritable "mensonge" de l'agence, pour qui "la vérité n'est pas un but." Les allégations seraient datées, disent-ils, et auraient depuis longtemps été démenties.
Selon l'agence Armstrong se serait dopé durant la plus grande partie de sa carrière. Celui-ci a annoncé une première retraite en 2005 avant de revenir au sport pendant deux ans en 2009 pour passer ensuite au triathlon. On l'accuse entre autre de dopage sanguin, selon des tests obtenus en 2009 et 2010.
"L'USADA a été construite par des athlètes sur les principes d'équité et d'intégrité", se défend Travis Tygart, de l'USADA.
Un élu du Wisconsin, le républicain James Sensenbrenner, a cependant vogué au secours du coureur, appelant les accusations portées contre lui un complot.
Pendant le Tour le quotidien néerlandais De Telegraaf a causé tout un choc avec une nouvelle à la une - démentie par les principaux intéressés - selon laquelle quatre coureurs du Tour de 2012, des anciens équipiers d'Armstrong, se verraient suspendre six mois en fin 2012 après avoir conclu un accord USADA. Celui-ci aurait été atteint selon le journal en échange d'aveux de dopage et de témoignages contre Armstrong.
L'USADA se dit aligner une dizaine d'anciens coéquipiers et officiels d'équipe pour témoigner contre le grand champion de la boucle.
S'il est trouvé coupable cependant, il pourrait se voir banni du sport à vie et dépouillé de ses conquêtes du Tour de France.
Pendant ce temps l'entraineur d'Armstrong lors de ses sept conquêtes de la grande boucle a fait savoir qu'il choisissait l'arbitrage dans sa propre lutte contre des accusations de dopage.
"M. (Johan) Bruyneel a demandé à ce que son affaire soit portée devant un panel d'arbitres, dont les auditions peuvent être ouvertes au public," a indiqué l'USADA.
PRI looks to lead Mexico again
When Mexicos Institutional Revolutionary Party lost power 12 years ago after an often iron-fisted lock on governing for some 70 odd years, the wall-toppling shockwaves were such that few gave it a chance to eventually stage a convincing comeback in the Latin American powerhouse. A least not so soon.
But years of economic slump in the export-driven economy and bloody drug violence claiming 50,000 lives, especially in the North, have set up the return of the party once symbolizing what Peruvian Nobel laureate Mario Vargas Llosa once called the perfect dictatorship. At least if a massive recount confirms preliminary numbers. How different will be PRI 2.0 under the helm of the largely charismatic 45-year-old former governor of the state of Mexico Enrique Pena Nieto, who took the presidency with 38% of the votes according to preliminary results Sunday?
Dont be confused. As president of Mexico, I will govern with the most solid and free democratic principles in the world, he sought to reassure voters. He called the nights results a celebration of Mexicos democracy and promised to govern for all Mexicans. Mexico was the nights great winner, he said, as he called for parties to settle differences and national reconciliation.
His opponents however were not convinced the PRI had changed either before or after the vote, leftist politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador call- ing PRI's return a terrible thing for the country. This week as Nieto was promising to act fast to bring tax reforms, Obrador called for a complete recount, claimed the election had been marked by fraud and was far from fair. He obtained a partial but still massive recount of over half the voting stations as reports emerged that people had obtained store credits from political parties.
Third-place Josefina Vazquez Mota, candidate for the conservative National Action Party of the outgoing president and first woman candidate for a major party, went further, saying Pena Nieto represents authoritarianism, the abuse of power and the surrender to crime, something she reiterated after she conceded on election night. This isnt something anyone would want to hear in a country so overrun by drug-fuelled crime many of its parts are out of bounds to all security forces save the military, which has had to take an active role trying to keep drug violence in the country under control when the corruption of local law enforcement became too embarrassing.
There have been some successes on the topic sometimes so overwhelming candidates have tried to treat it like any other electoral issue. Outgoing president Felipe Calderon told the Wall Street Journal in an interview in the lead up to the vote the drug war is slowing and his administrations strategy is working, violence is coming down, citing a drop in drug-related murders of 12% during the first half of the year, the first decline in over a dozen years. But the man who launched an aggressive campaign against the cartels which in the end only left Mexicans feeling less secure and more displeased with their president hastens to add we obviously cant claim victory yet. Or even dare utter little about it sometimes.
An incident underlined this at the heart of the campaign, when 49 decapitated bodies were found on a highway leading to the U.S. border. None of the candidates rushed to issue a statement condemning the incident or commenting on measures they would propose to bring it to an end. According to one analyst, the reason is simple, the politicians didnt have a solution for the drug-fuelled madness killing thousands every year. Its an uncomfortable topic for which (the candidates) dont have responses ... or something clear to offer, said polling firm director Jorge Buendía.
Sometimes authorities are just as clueless too. Recently Mexican officials had to admit they got the wrong man after announcing they had arrested the son of the worlds most powerful drug dealer. Around the same time three police officers in Mexico were killed in a shooting with two other officers at the capitals main air- port. The latter were allegedly to be arrested for drug dealing, and are being actively sought after escaping. In light of these complications focusing the campaign on the seemingly more down to earth and less complicated topic of creating jobs and raising millions out of poverty seemed more reasonable.
My priority will be to tackle the poverty in our country at its roots, Nieto said, though he is not entirely short of ideas to tackle the drug problem. Nieto would seek to create a paramilitary force and promised to triple the security budget. If the ideas seem slightly Colombian it may be because he has hired Bogotas former police chief as adviser. In his victory speech Nieto said security efforts would continue to protect the country and there would be no deal with organized crime.
The fight against crime will continue, he said. In the face of organized crime, there will be neither negotiation, nor truce. Obrador welcomed the prospect of a new PRI administra- tion with talk of staging protests like those he organized after the last election, gradually causing him to lose support. In fact he never conceded he lost the last election. He is not alone reluctant to see a return of the PRI and planning demonstrations, with student protests gathering momentum to make their voices heard during the campaign.
With a majority of the drug-related victims in their ranks, and numbers showing their unemployment levels something like double the 4.8% national average, the protesters have been taking to the streets loudly and regularly. While their situation would tend to turn their guns against the outgoing administration, they have also booed Nieto. Its like a storm, getting stronger, Luis Sosa, 25, told CNN. Its the first time in a long time that young people have raised their voice.
In his victory speech Nieto said he would listen to the students. But millions more also seemed willing to give the PRI a second chance, putting aside the legacy of corruption and cronysm enough to give them a plurality of voices in the assemblies in addition to the presidency. Voter Hugo Rubio told AP he hoped the incoming president would bring more jobs, more tranquility in terms of security adding: He has demonstrated that (the party) had changed, that he cares about the people who are most in need.
That familiar word
On a continent a little sensitive about its rich history of coup detats, it wasnt hard to see why Latin American countries reacted with concern when Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo was ousted after his impeachment over his handling of a protest which turned ugly. Frederico Franco, the countrys vice-presi- dent, took over when the Senate voted 39-4 to impeach Lugo after land dispute clashes between police an farmers left over a dozen dead. Countries such as Argentina, Venezuela and Ecuador protested the transition, and later suspended the countrys membership in the Mercosur trading bloc but stopped short of imposing sanctions.
Responding to accusations the move amounted to a coup, Franco stressed his country had not strayed from democracy. What was carried out was a political trial in accordance with the constitution and the laws, he said. I am calm, we are going to organize the house, we are going to contact our neighbouring countries in due time and Im absolutely certain that they are going to understand the situation in Paraguay.
Lugo on the other hand said he condemned the coup against the citizenry and democracy. They will be responsible for the poverty and the return of dictatorship in Paraguay, he added. Neighbours such as regional power Argentina reacted angrily, pulling their ambassador and vowing they would not validate the coup in Paraguay. President Cristina Fernandez told the Mercosur summit the democratic order was broken in Paraguay as Lugo was not allowed a proper defense at his trial. Joining Argentina were Ecuadors Rafael Correa and Venezuelas Hugo Chavez, also refusing to recognize the new leadership.
The Mercosur suspension will last until presidential elections are held in Paraguay next year. We will not lend ourselves to these tales of alleged legal formali- ties, which clearly attack democracy, Correa said. Also voicing their opposition were Colombia, Mexico and Chile, who said the outgoing president was not given reasonable time to prepare his defence.
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights said the removal was an attack on the legal foundation of the state. Of all people, Cuban President Raul Castro joined the fray, withdrawing his ambassador as he claimed that the coups have returned, but disguised, according to newspaper Granma.
The move constitutes a kind of Rorschach test in Latin America, argued one opinion piece in Foreign Policy this week. "The extremely abridged procedure - lasting a scant six hours from indictment to conviction, and with no real chance for Hugo to put forward a defense - was a travesty of justice based on an unconvincing constitutional fig leaf," wrote Francisco Toro. Adding a new twist to the saga were allegations Venezuela's foreign minister went so far as to try to intervene with Paraguay's military to prevent the ouster, a matter now before the country's attorney general.
"That's the logic of hyper-presiden- tialism at work," Toro opined. "Calling out the tanks to defend an impeached president counts as 'democratic restoration' but applying the constitutional procedure to impeach him makes you a coupster." As common these days as coups once were across the continent, occasionally violent protests have swept the country, and indeed the continent.
Bolivia meanwhile was dealing with their own violent protests, initially as police across the country carried on with a strike on wages. Police officers took over barracks in La Paz, prompting the government to send in the army to try to re- store order and patrol the streets. Government officials there also claim the officers have brandished the threat of a coup. But the officers said nothing more than better pay was their goal and soon after a deal was reached guaranteeing a modest increase of salary. A new round of protests was gathering by then however, as 1,000 indigenous natives completed a protest march to the capital to demonstrate against government plans to cut a highway through their ancestral homeland in the Amazon.
This week protests in Peru turned violent as two people were killed in demonstrations opposing a mining project while rallies against education reforms in Guatemala left doz- ens injured, including two ministers.
3615-la fin
La présence décran et de clavier dans les chambres du grand public navait plus rien de surprenant au début des années 90. Ils y avaient leur place comme les consoles de jeux vidéo ou les chaines hi-fi. Mais quelquechose de magique se dégageait néanmoins de ce petit appareil installé chez des correspondants à Paris en ce début de dernière décennie du millénaire. Alors que lécran paraissait plutôt banal et le clavier plutôt inconfortable, le petit appareil semblait ouvrir des portes jusque là inconnues chez la plupart.
Un compagnon et sa compagne avaient les visages baignés par la lueur de cet engin plutôt révolutionnaire, qui cherchait à leur place, des appartements dans une ville où en dénicher peut parfois relever du miracle. Lancé à lorigine en Bretagne, il y a trente ans, avec peu de fonctions - il était limité à recracher le bottin électroniquement - le Minitel aura depuis multiplié les services et les usages, des petites annonces aux transactions bancaires. Sans oublier le Minitel rose, dont le succès aura à lui seul garanti la survie du petit appareil bien après larrivée du tsunami internet. Du moins pour quelque temps.
Cette fin de semaine cependant, on a finalement décroché le petit Minitel du mur, mettant fin à une aventure purement française qui faisait de lhexagone, pendant plusieurs années, lenvie du monde. Sur le site du réseau téléphonique Orange, la nécrologie du petit terminal était brève. "Larrêt du Minitel est une conséquence de la décroissance des usages et de la fermeture du réseau support de loffre Minitel. Ce réseau support étant de moins en moins utilisé, et compte tenu des évolutions technologiques, il a été décidé darrêter son exploitation.
La section comment faire sans Minitel de la page consacrée à sa fin pointait du doigt le coupable de cette mise à mort. La plupart des services du Minitel sont également accessibles sur dautres sup- ports, que ce soit sur internet (en grande majorité)... Et oui, la toile avait fatalement piégé le précieux terminal si utile et visionnaire de la métropole.
Certes certains ont protesté, mais lexécution a sinon fait verser peu de larmes, sinon par pure nostalgie. Moi, les filles du 3645 ULLA vont beaucoup me manquer... se permettait Alexandre Lemoine sur une page Facebook nommée non à la fin du Minitel qui na pas accroché plus de 63 personnes. Pourtant, ils étaient bien 9 millions en circulation à la grande époque, au milieu des année 90, 25 million dutilisateurs en tout, environ la moitié de la population. A lépoque le président Chirac en faisait les éloges, se demandant si un boulanger à New York pouvait rêver de visualiser son compte en banque comme celui dAubervilliers.
On était en 1997, lexplosion dinternet alors fortement en branle, notamment grâce à ces mêmes lignes téléphoniques. La NPU mettait alors à jour chez ces mêmes correspondants son site internet déjà vieux dun an, à lémerveillement de tous. Il faut dire que le Minitel aura quelque peu retardé limplantation dinternet en France. Et alors quen 2003 Chirac chantait toujours ses louanges, le décès du service était déjà annoncé depuis longtemps.
Pour certains, la leçon dépasse le domaine purement technologique: Ce qui arrive au Minitel illustre bien ce qui peut arriver lors du transfert dune activité propriété de lEtat, cest-à-dire des citoyens français, et dont la priorité est le service à leur rendre, à un groupe financier, déclare Ressources Solidaires, sur une autre page dédiée au terminal. Les chiffres évidemment en disent quelquechose, le nombre dutilisateurs ayant chuté à 2 millions, pour un insignifiant chiffre daffaire denviron 200,000 euros.
Cest toute une aventure, unique, qui touche à sa fin. Et voilà peut-être une autre raison du déclin, ce fait unique, que le phénomène nait jamais touché dautres rivages, pour peut-être évoluer, survivre, si cétait possible. Pour le reste, lappareil, sil nest pas déjà affiché sur eBay pour intéresser les collectionneurs, restera une pièce de discussion dans plusieurs milliers de domiciles français, certes recouvert dune généreuse couche de poussière sans doute, et de nostalgie. Je naurai jamais rencontré ma femme sans le Minitel, écrit Ben Demi. Cest un meurtre!
Another test for the eurozone
With François Hollandes Socialists and their allies seizing most of the National Assemblys seats, lukewarm response to the bailout of Spanish banks and talks in Brussels of limiting the movement of people ahead of Greeces crucial vote, Europe has been going through a period of renewed tensions ahead of a crucial euro summit. While the defending Euro champion was looking good on the pitch, the $130 billion bailout of its banks did anything but calm investors fears ahead of a critical Greek vote that held the countrys monetary future in the balance.
After a short sigh of relief markets were back in panic mode rising Spains borrowing costs to their highest levels since the launch of the euro. It is not a situation that can be maintained over time... and I am convinced that we will continue to take more measures in the coming days and weeks to help bring it down, said Spanish Economic Minister Luis de Guindos.
The bailout agreement also had repercussions in Greece, some officials there wondering whether the terms of their own $160 billion bailout had been too harsh in comparison. But victory by New Democracy this weekend, which collected nearly 30% of the votes, gave the pro-bailout party an opportunity to form a coalition with its allies. The stakes were high with the countrys future in the eurozone in the balance.
To conservative leader Antonis Samaras at least, one thing was clear, Greeks had voted to stay in the euro. He called for a national salvation government after topping the anti-bailout left-wing Syriza party by three points. There will be no more adventures. Greeces place in Europe will not be put in doubt, Samaras said. The sacrifices of the Greek people will bring the country back to prosperity.
But Samaras and his allies were also looking to tweak current austerity arrangements, promising during the campaign to bring some relief by cutting property and sale taxes and freezing reductions in public salaries and pensions. Italys government meanwhile was asking lawmakers to support tough new austerity measures to prevent the contagion to spread from its Southern European partners.
In the little time hes been in power Prime minister Mario Monti has increased the age of retirement, raised property taxes and charged after tax evaders but had done little to spur economic growth. France on the other hand, with Socialists consolidating their standing, was partly looking to reverse Sarkozys pension reform and boosting the minimum wage. But despite its comparatively draconian measures, Italys economy risked crumbling like its increasingly frail Trevi fountain.
There is a permanent risk of contagion, Monti told an economics conference. That is why strengthening the euro zone is of collective interest. Some indeed fear Rome is far removed from the Dolce Vita and facing the kind of trouble seen elsewhere. Its proof that the Euro- pean mechanisms designed to stop the crisis are not working, said Daniele Sottile of financial advisers Vitale & Associati in Milan, at the same conference.
Speaking at the Conference of Montreal meanwhile, former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said rather than bailouts a political consolidation of Europes southern welfare states could see the continent out of the current mess. The (poorer countries) are borrowing money on North- ern Europes credit card, he said, adding the system was not viable . The only solution to this is political consolidation of Europe, he said.
And yet European officials were sending quite a different message from Brussels, where they suggested they were looking at limits being imposed on movement of people and money across EU borders if necessary to protect public security. While such measures would be intended to prevent a run on the banks and a flight of cash, talk of the contingencies only increased panic ahead of the weekend vote, Greeks taking some $1 billion out of their major banks daily while stocking up on food as their geared for the worst and a possible return to the drachma.
Both EU and the International Monetary Fund warned Greece, which only has enough cash for a few weeks, it had to stick to the tough conditions of the bailout deal or lose its funding altogether. Even Hollande, by far more sympathetic to the Greeks situation than Angela Merkel, warned the country had to go the tough necessary route or face ejection from the eurozone. Merkel indicated her country had its limits when it came to supporting weaker European partners: Germany is putting this strength and this power to use for the wellbeing of people, not just in Germany but also to help European unity and the global economy. But we also know Germanys strength is not infinite.
A roadblock on the path of North African elections
With the security situation in Libya still less than ideal less than a year after the death of strongman Moammar Gaddafi, and confusion over the prosecution of son Saif al-Islam leading to the detention of four members of a delegation from the International Criminal Court, it is safe to say the announcement the mideast country was delaying its elections for a few weeks came as a relief to some observers. But an announcement by Egypts Supreme Court that last years parliamentary election was illegitimate and the lower house should be dissolved sparked outrage, putting in doubt the marathon electoral process in the country which was this weekend selecting a president but had yet to write a new Constitution.
The ruling in particular upset the Muslim Brotherhood, which secured the largest share of the seats, and second-place Salafists, Islamist politician Ab- dul Moneim calling the announcement the equivalent of a complete coup at the time the ruling military is suspected of wanting to keep much of its hands on power. The Brother- hood warned dangerous days lay ahead.
To some the move echoed the cancellation of elections won by Islamists in Algeria in 1991, plunging the country into civil war. It came as Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi looked to clinch the presidency, one whose powers may soon be curbed by the military. While the result may be prove less dramatic in Egypt than Algeria, the incident no less opened a new troubling chapter in the countrys history according to some observers. This is an opening scene in what is certain to be a drama, commented Jon Alterman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
Others hope Egypt will find another more suitable role model: Turkey, where the secular army has largely remained in the barracks, tolerating mild forms of Islam. Next door to Egypt, the instability seven months after Gaddafis death claimed over a dozen lives this week as government forces battled with tribal fighters in the South and West. Officials say fighting in the South began when members of Toubou tribe attacked a military checkpoint, but members of the group say they were the ones being attacked. The incidents closed shops and schools in Kufra, which fell into a blackout.
The checkpoint had been set up to maintain the peace after soldiers were sent to defend a ceasefire between the Toubou and rival Zwei group, earlier this year. The lack of a strong central government is being blamed for the security void in the weapons-rich country. The incidents have forced transitional leader Mustafa Abdul-Jalil to ask rivals to lower their weapons. Everyone should stand united behind building a state of institutions, law and justice, he said, to overcome this agony and reach our dream and the dream of all Libyans: free and fair elections which will be a real beginning in the history of Libya. In the West the government sent troops this weekend to end fighting between local militia which resulted in another dozen fatalities.
Besides the internal strife, Libya was coming under international pressure as it detained a four-person group of the ICC, accusing one member of spying. The Libyans say Australian delegation member Melinda Taylor was trying to pass documents to Saif al-Islam, who has been under custody since November. Australian officials have been seeking consular access to Taylor, and clarifications on the circumstances of her detention. The deposed dictators son is facing ICC charges for crimes against humanity against the Libyan people, for the alleged torture and killing of civilians, something he has denied.
The first former regime official to face Libyan courts meanwhile was Gaddafis foreign spy chief, Buzeid Dorda, who denied charges that included ordering to kill protesters. I not only deny the charges, I am saying they are made up and they are the opposite of what I did, he said. Reflecting the importance of tribal relations and influence in the country, Dorda also faces charges of using his tribesmen to take action against the country.
While Gaddafis sentence was swift and without appeal, the other strongmen toppled in the revolutions received theirs recently, Ben Ali (in absen- tia) and Mubarak both receiving life sentences, the later sparking fights between supporters and opponents. Tunisia meanwhile has seen tensions return recently after an arts show sparked riots by Muslim opponents, requiring curfews to be imposed in the capital and other cities. The upheaval in much of Libya was enough to persuade election officials of the need to postpone the planned June 19 vote to July 7.
Emphasizing tensions, a British convoy in Benghazi was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade, injuring two security guards, according to the BBC. The eastern city remembered as the stronghold from which fighters moved West targeting the Gaddafi regime and ultimately toppling the strongman was also the scene of an explosion the previous week next to the U.S. mission. The decision to delay the vote was well-received by the United Nations, relieved it will allow more time to complete essential preparations for the national assembly election.
U.N. envoy Ian Martin praised the countrys election commission for its admirable progress considering what he called an extremely tight timetable and major operational challenges. A lot is riding on the vote, the 200-seat assembly expecting to be charged with writing a new constitution and forming a government to succeed the National Transitional Council which has been running the country since Gaddafis ouster. Dozens of new parties are expected to take part in the vote for which 80% of eligible voters have now been registered, some 2.7 million people in all.
Un référendum aux Malouines
Des référendums à nen plus finir? Jadis presque une devise politique au Québec et au Canada, voilà que ça devient une affaire bien britannique, les sujets de la reine diamantée pouvant être appelés aux urnes dans divers confins du Dominion lors des prochaines années. Alors que lEcosse prépare un référendum sur la souveraineté qui pourrait décider le sort des habitants du nord de lIle, la divisant peut-être comme celle dIrlande plus à louest, lépineuse question des Malouines pourrait également être réglée à coup de plebiscite lan prochain.
Depuis plusieurs mois déjà la contestation gronde à propos de larchipel à lest des côtes dArgentine, trente ans après la guerre-éclair qui a contribué à la légende de la Dame de fer ainsi quau début de la fin de lère de la dictature sur le continent. La tourmente a été exacerbée par la présence du Prince Williams lors dexercices militaires, Buenos Aires formant un pacte avec plusieurs pays environnants afin de bloquer laccès de navires battant pavillon Union Jack dans les ports de la côte. Les parlementaires britanniques accusent Buenos Aires dorchestrer rien de moins quun blocus économique des iles.
Londres compte mettre un fin à cette bisbille de toujours en organisant un référendum sur le statut politique des 3,000 habitants des iles afin de démontrer leur attachement à la couronne. Lannonce a été faite en veille de lanniversaire, à la mi-juin, des 30 ans de loccupation de 1982 qui aura duré 74 jours. Le premier ministre David Cameron sengage à respecter la décision des citoyens de larchipel, pas peu fiers pour la plupart de lattachement à la métropole éloignée. Le référendum de lan prochain va mettre hors de tout doute lopinion des citoyens des Malouines, dit-il. La Grande-Bretagne compte respecter et défendre leur choix.
Cette fierté a été reflétée dans la couverture des dernières tensions avec lArgentine, dont la présidente a parfois été traitée de tous les noms dans les médias locaux. Gavin Short, qui dirige lassemblée de lile, estime que la population insulaire va montrer au monde à quel points nous sommes certains de notre avenir. Je nai aucun doute, dit-il, que les citoyens des Malouines veulent que les iles demeurent un territoire outre-mer du Royaume-Uni. Nous navons certainement pas lintention dêtre gouvernés par Buenos Aires, chose évidente aux yeux de toute personne qui a visité les iles et eu écho de notre point de vue.
De tels plebiscites nont rien de nouveau dans lhistoire des territoires ou anciens territoires britanniques. Cet hiver le premier ministre jamaïcain sengageait à tenir un référendum sur lattachement à la couronne. Avec lapproche des 50 ans dindépendance cet été, Portia Simpson Miller laissait entendre quil était temps que le pays rompe les liens avec Sa Majesté.
Lors des années 80 les Turks et Caicos avaient voté en faveur du rattachement du territoire au Canada, mais Ottawa avait rejeté lidée dajouter le paradis des Caraibes à son territoire. Il y a trois ans de nouveaux appels au référendum ont resurgi lorsque Londres a suspendu la constitution des iles.
Référendum ou pas, lArgentine entend poursuivre sa lancée sur la question, la présidente Cristina de Kirchner exigeant de Londres sa participation lors de négociations sur la souveraineté des iles. La question a même été d'actualité au G20 cette semaine. Pour Cameron laffaire est classé, il ny aura aucune négociation.
Tone rises on Syria
Syrian repression has been so steady and bloody it was hardly noticed when the United Nations placed the number of victims in the five digits. But over 10,000 deaths later, the May 25 massacre in the small farming town of Houla and its 100+ victims, half of them children, touched a nerve in the Syrian reprinternational community, a number of Western capitals withdrawing their ambassadors. Now not only are the rebels breaking the ceasefire, a new group says it is also entering the fray to fight Damascus rule.
The latest developments notably turned the heat on Moscow for remaining supportive of the regime, Russia slowly inching away from its ally. The foreign ministry earlier drew criticism for saying the Syrian rebels shared responsibility for the death of the villagers, some having succumbed to shelling, others having had their throats slashed, sure signs according to Damascus the rebels were behind it. Others only saw in it the evil hand of the state thugs and militia, the shabiha paras.
The U.S. has expressed frustration at Moscows stance, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton saying earlier it would only push the crisis toward civil war. While President Vladimir Putin said Russia was not supporting any side in the conflict and denied his country is supplying arms to Syria which can be used in a civilian conflict, diplomats earlier reported a Russian boat carrying arms docking into a Syrian port. Clinton could not hide her doubts about Mos- cows statement.
We know there has been a very consistent arms trade, even during the past year, coming from Russia to Syria, she said. We also believe the continuous supply of arms from Russia has strengthened the Assad regime. Standing next to French president Hollande, who had just called for President Assads removal, President Putin offered a slightly different tone, asking Western powers to consider the aftermath of other recent Arab regime changes.
We are thinking that if we push the current leadership from power, then tomorrow general wellbeing will begin, he said, the longtime ally trying to ap- pear the voice of reason among legions of warmongers. What is happening in Libya? What is happening in Iraq? Has it be- come safer there? We propose to act in an accurate, balanced manner at least in Syria. Also sharing the blame was Beijing, which along with Russia once again tied the hands of a UN Security Council where the majority was seeking tougher action short of a military strike.
But there seemed to be a change of tone this week when deputy foreign minister Gennady Gatilov hinted Moscow wasn't married to Assad, so long as any ouster not take the shape of a military intervention. Both are under pressure as the violence intensified this week and Annan himself reconsiders his peace initiative. Assad meanwhile denied his forces had anything to do with the Houla massacre, calling it an ugly crime that even monsters would not carry out and blames foreign meddling for tearing Syria apart.
While NATO had excluded the use of force in Syria - or anything close to its largely successful hi-altitude aerial offensive in support of eventu- ally successful rebels in Libya - the country in part responsible for the effort to drive Gaddafi from power, France, seemed ready to strike the war drums under new president François Hollande. It is not possible to allow Bashar Assad to massacre his own people, Hollande said in a TV interview in which he did not exclude international military intervention in Syria.
The statement caught some of his European allies by surprise, Germany with which it already has differences over austerity measures, distancing itself from Paris. The statements by Mr. Hollande really surprised me, particularly since French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius recently said that no one was considering a ground offensive, said Ruprecht Polenz, of the Free Democrats. The U.S. has also been resisting the call to arms. The man meanwhile largely credited for influencing former president Nicolas Sarkozys ultimate decision to lead the charge in Libya, philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy, was back with an open letter in a number of European papers calling on the socialist French president to take the initiative in Syria.
The Houla, and other massacres, have made a mockery of the so-called ceasefire in Syria. Leaders of the Free Syrian Army were already considering special en- voy Kofi Annans peace plan a failure, asking that he put out a statement saying so, and going on to say they would no longer respect the cease fire this week. They claimed responsibility for over 80 military deaths over the weekend, the single highest toll since the crisis began. Meanwhile the creation of the new opposition Syrian Rebels Front was announced in Turkey, claiming to repre- sent 12,000 fighters and representing the end result of the failure of current international efforts.
Fearing an only worsening situation which has already spilled into next-door Lebanon, a country long under Damascus shadow, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon also warned the country could be moving toward a catastrophic civil war, in the wake of the Houla massacre. Americas top diplomat shared those concerns. [The Russians] are telling me they dont want to see a civil war. I have been telling them their policy is going to help to contribute to a civil war, Clinton told a Copenhagen audience.
The tone also rose across the pond, where David Camerons office said all the options on the table were being considered as London promised it would not abandon Syrians facing slaughter. The UNs Human Rights Council held a special session where the Houla event was called a crime against humanity. High Commissioner Navi Pillay urged the international community to make all efforts to end impunity and ensure accountability for perpetrators at the International Criminal Court.
He called for an investigation of the massacre. These acts may amount to crimes against humanity and other international crimes, and may be indicative of a pattern of widespread or systematic attacks against civilian populations that have been perpetrated with impunity, Pillay said. Russia balked at the resolution, saying it was unbalanced.
By then the opposition was already reporting another massacre, 13 workers having been forced off a bus by shabiha and killed at close range. Then this week 100 new deaths in Hama were related to the bloody cycle of violence engulfing the Mideast country, an incident UN monitors said they were shot at trying to investigate, bringing Ki-moon to declare "any regime or leader that tolerates such killing of innocents has lost its fundamental humanity."
Now the duel begins
Befitting a candidate of steady but underwhelming popularity outshone at every corner but the crucial one, Mitt Romney clinched the nomination with a whimper rather than a bang. A salute perhaps to the U.S. presidencies his party won before him, the key win to snag the 1,144 necessary del- egates came in Texas, a red state with little love for either of the two candidates. Americas southernmost state certainly has a hard time embracing most East Coast politicians, especially someone with such a checkered social policy record, or someone so tough on immi- grants, especially coming from south of the Rio Grande.
It is nevertheless a state one of them may have to carry if they hope of ending their presidential marathon run at the White House in November. Its only the beginning, said the first Mormon republican nominee in history, especially where his efforts are concerned, considering the tepid support coming from a republican base now resigned to supporting him and the Obama camps well-oiled and funded campaign.
Similarly however, some are wondering whether recent moves by the incumbent havent affected his support among minorities, notably black churchgoers and more conservative Hispanics less than enthused about Obamas support of gay marriage. Obama found himself on the spot when vice-president Joe Biden raised the issue of gay marriage in a TV appearance, the president eventually laying out the depth of the evolution of his thoughts on the matter. It came after the repeal of dont ask dont tell in the military, also under his watch, further building Obamas image as gay-friendly. An ensuing Newsweek cover certainly made the case convincing to some.
But surprisingly the explosive issue may have brought the minorities themselves, groups never as important politically as now, to evolve in their usually hostile views of the issue, according to one poll. It found that African-Americans in particular became less likely to oppose gay marriage after Obamas announcement. Before May 9, 34 percent of blacks opposed gay marriage, but this dropped to 23 percent after Obamas coming out of sorts. While this did not necessarily translate into greater support for gay marriage, Hispanic support for gay marriage rose from to 51 percent from 46 percent after Obama announced his new po- sition.
Issues facing the candidates of course will be many, the economy being top of mind. Unemployment numbers that week reported a still sluggish economy, with 69,000 new jobs created, the smallest number created in a year, well below forecast, dragging markets down and leading the unemployment rate to creep back up from 8.1% to 8.2%.
Soon after clinching the nomination, Romney made an address in front of a shuttered sonar panel maker which has been a favourite target of Republicans after a loan guarantee of over $500 million from the Department of Energy went to this company headed by an Obama contributor. The president took a half a billion dollars of taxpayer money and devoted it to an enterprise that was owned in large measure by his campaign contributors, he said of Solyndra, which went bankrupt last year. This is serious conflict of inter- est.
At a campaign rally in Colorado, Romney said any slight gains in the economy were obtained despite, not because, of the presidents policies. He said he was going to create some 5 million green-energy jobs, Romney said. Have you seen those around here any- where? Not to be outdone, Democrats went to work attacking Romneys record as governor of Massachusetts and as a cold-hearted businessman. Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt slammed Romney as a corporate buyout specialist.
He has claimed time and again that his goal was job creation, but the workers who lost their jobs when he profited off of bankrupting companies and outsourcing know that wasnt the case, he said in a statement. The gloves are off now that the duel can properly take place now that Romneys pesky rivals, from Perry, Cain, Bachmann, down to Gingrich and Paul, bowed out one by one, many after taking turns outshining, but in the end not outlasting him.
La déchirure au Mali?
Son président en convalescence, le gouvernement aux prises avec les hommes forts de lex-junte et le nord hors de son orbite, létat malien a bien faiblement pu protester en fin mai lorsque deux groupes armés occupant sa région septentrionale ont déclaré leur fusion afin de faire sécession. Les espoirs à Bamako de jouer les différences entre les touaregs laïques et les islamistes dAnsar Dine, ou Défenseur de lislam, semblaient ainsi voués à léchec à première vue, alors que les deux annonçaient leur auto-dissolution et la création dun Conseil transitoire de lEtat islamique de lAzawad.
LAfrique allait-elle ainsi voir naitre son tout dernier territoire contesté, comme le Sahara occidental, et hier le Sud-Soudan, mais avec cette préoccupation principale quAl-Qaïda au Maghreb islamique (Aqmi), tire les ficelles? Alors que le gouvernement rejetait catégoriquement toute idée de création dun Etat de lAzawad, encore plus dun Etat islamique, la confiance nétait pas à son plus fort niveau tant au sein du gouvernement quà la tête de larmée.
Déjà labsence du président Dioncounda Traoré ne se devait-elle pas à lincapacité de le protéger même au coeur de la capitale, où il a été agressé par une foule, exigeant une hospitalisation à létranger? Traoré venait pourtant de voir son rôle de président intérimaire prolongé après avoir conclu une entente prévoyant le retrait du chef de la junte Amadou Sanogo, avec tous les privilèges dun chef détat à la retraite, tandis quil préparait les prochaines élections et tentait de résoudre la crise dans le nord.
Le vide navait rien pour rassurer les observateurs, qui notent ceux qui pouvaient bénéficier dune telle entente. Cest une alliance contre-nature qui ne favorisera quAqmi, déclarait à lAFP le responsable de la communauté arabe du Nord malien Malaïnine Ould Badi. Pourtant plusieurs voyaient avec la fu- sion des deux groupes une union forte pour tenir tête à Al-Qaïda au Maghreb islamique, une mouvance cependant mieux équipée que plusieurs armées africaines. En plus davoir saisi plusieurs armes lourdes durant le chaos de la révolution libyenne, le groupe a pris possession dun important dépôt souterrain darmes et de munitions de larmée régulière malienne à Gao.
Cette nouvelle de fusion était accueillie assez favorablement par les intervenants internationaux, qui préfèrent avoir un nombre limité dacteurs afin de résoudre la crise. La médiation salue toute dynamique allant vers la cohésion entre les différents mouvements armés, lessentiel étant que ce groupe (choisisse) loption dune solution négociée au conflit, déclarait le ministre burkinabé des Affaires étrangères Djibrill Bassolé. Mais laccord paraissait compromis à peine quelques jours plus tard, les touaregs se disant renoncer à lidée en raison de désaccords sur lapplication de la charia, la loi islamique.
Le bureau politique du MNLA, devant lintransigeance dAnçar Dine sur lapplication de la charia dans lAzawad, et pour être fidèle à sa ligne de conduite résolument laïque, dénonce laccord en date du 26 mai 2012 avec cette organisation et en déclare nulles et non avenues toutes dispositions y afférent, indiquait membre du Bureau politique du MNLA. Mais du côté islamiste, il est plutôt question dune impasse que dune annulation.
Nous avons dit au MNLA que les discussions pour nous sont terminées. Il nest pas question de revenir en arrière (sur la charia), affirmait un membre du groupe. Si le MNLA le veut, il vient [avec Ansar Eddine], sil ne veut pas, cest bon, mais selon lui les touaregs sont loin dêtre unanimes sur la question selon quils soient au Mali, en Mauritanie ou en France. Cette semaine le MNLA semblait aller de lavant avec les projets de nouvel état, se disant préparer à mettre en place un conseil pour le gouverner.
Alors que les différences entre les deux groupes restent à létude, le groupe touareg rejette toute notion de quelconque lien entre Aqim et Ansar Dine. Alors que les groupes disent ne pas avoir de projets à lextérieur de leur frontière, le président du Bénin nen est pas rassuré, se disant redouter que le nord du Mali ne devienne un Afghanistan africain.
Egypt prepares for run-off
With one former president awaiting his fate in jail, Egyptians went to the polls last week to continue the electoral marathon that followed Hosni Mubaraks ouster to elect their head of state in free elections, a first in 5,000 years of recorded history. As in previous parliamentary elections, Islamists were among the favourites, but this time the election was carried out without the violence that preceded previous votes, polling day itself relatively hassle free save a dozen incidents related to overcrowding or overheating at voting stations as the hot summer months near.
Besides Islamists, familiar faces of the old regime were also in the running, among them former head of the Arab League Amr Moussa, an internationally-recog- nised figure, and Ahmed Shafiq, a military man who served as Mubaraks last prime minister. Heavily fa- voured was Mohammed Morsi, head of the Muslim Brotherhoods Free- dom and Justice Party, which had topped parliamentary polls. In the first round Morsi took 25.3% of the votes, closely fol- lowed by Shafiq 24.9%, trailing by a mere 100,000 votes, a tiny drop in the countrys pool of 50 million electors.
The two polarizing candidates will now face off in the mid-June runoff. Electing a president was expected to finally bring some clo- sure to the long electoral process put in place when the military council took the reins 15 months ago, and therefore yield a portrait of a slightly less chaotic nation of 80 million than occasionally appeared in the interim. That it nearly coincided with Mubaraks verdict was expected to bring closure to the frail transition that sometimes brought chaos back to cities such as Cairo and Alexandria, where skepticism about the armys intentions would lead to popular clashes.
The vote wasnt free of criticism, the countrys National Council for Human Rights reporting dozens of complaints, but far from being about vote suppression or voter intimidation, they seemed borderline bearable, involving the delayed opening of voting booths and candidates campaigning too close to voting stations as the polling was taking place. Third runner-up Hamdeen Sabahi meanwhile called for a partial recount after being denied spot in the runoff. Today the world is witnessing the birth of a new Egypt. I am proud and cher- ish my membership of this peo- ple.Iassurethemthattomorrow will be better than today and better than yesterday, said Morsi, a reserve candidate thrust into the spotlight when the main ticket holder was disqualified over a past conviction.
While his party has said it will not seek to impose a strict Saudi-style Islamic law, it wants to implement a more moderate version of it, leaving Christian minorities, caught in clashes since the Arab Spring, fearing they will be discriminated against. Theres been some disenchantment since the Brotherhood took nearly half the seats in last falls legislative vote, some criticizing it for wanting to stack a panel expected to draft the next constitution, a project currently being delayed. The Brotherhood was also panned for recently shutting down parliament and saying it wouldnt field presidential candidates, then letting two of them throw their hat into the ring.
A 30 year-leader of the Brotherhood who spent a number of them in jail, Abdel Moneim Abolfotoh broke ranks and ran as an independent candidate, benefiting from the support of hardline Salafists but also ap- pealing, oddly, to secularists reluctant to vote for anyone once close to Mubarak. But some say the more obvious cleavage in the election may not be the meat of the issue. The religious-secular divide is largely artificial, says prominent human-rights lawyer Hossam Bahgat. The real, dangerous struggle is be- tween civil society and the deep state.
While some fear a strong showing by Shafiq, seen as being too close to the military, could only be obtained by fraud, some rattled by a dozens months of instability after the Mubarak regime was toppled hope for a safer, more stable environment. The country is go- ing under. We need a president that implements justice and brings back security. Bottom line, Essam el-Khatib, a government employee, told AP.
If new leadership brings a measure of stability, it will be well-received in a country where the economy has been stagnating, not the least due to a drop in tourism revenue, which finances a major share of the national budget. While the military has promised to hand power at the end of June, some fear it will very much remain in- volved in everyday politics.
100 jours de grève
Pendant que la crise étudiante au Québec de plus de 100 jours senlise dans la législation après la contestation déposée contre la loi spéciale, qui devait en principe mettre fin aux manifestations, le mouvement sétend ailleurs à travers la province et même chez les voisins ontariens. Quelques jours à peine après la démission de la ministre de léducation et son remplacement par une personne avec qui les groupes étudiants estimaient pouvoir relancer les pourparlers, le retour à limpasse a donné lieu à lannonce de la très controversée loi 78, geste posé pour apporter une pause salutaire à la crise après 14 semaines de grèves.
Quelques jours plus tard la loi 78 était adoptée, mais le gouvernement nétait pas au bout de ses peines. La loi mettrait en suspens les sessions dans les établissements qui ne seraient pas parvenus à une entente, et ce jusquen août et exigerait entre autre le dévoilement de plans de marche de groupes dépassant les 50 participants. Le jour même Montréal adoptait une réglementation interdisant le port du masque lors de manifestations. Les deux gestes ont entrainé la condamnation non seulement des associations étudiantes mais de groupes des droits de lhomme, craignant de nouvelles limites au droit de manifester. Le barreau du Québec sest également déclaré troublé par la loi.
Les associations étudiantes ny ont vu, et nest-ce pas la couleur des manifestants, que du rouge, faisant appel à davantage de mobilisation et contestant la nouvelle loi en cour une semaine après son adoption. Déclarée loi matraque par lopposition, celle-ci nétait que la plus récente tentative de régler le conflit par une législation. Il est temps que le calme revienne, déclarait le premier ministre, qui reste intraitable sur le besoin de hausser les frais de scolarité et entend garantir le droit daccès à léducation. Pourtant lors des derniers jours le non-respect dinjonctions prévues afin de permettre la participation aux cours avait souligné léchec de forcer une solution au problème qui paralyse léducation, et souvent la grande métropole montréalaise du même coup.
Les groupes étudiants estiment quune telle loi ne fait quenvenimer la situation et engendrer la violence. Ils lont qualifiée de répressive et anti-syndicale. «Ce nest pas en suspendant la session quon suspend la crise», disent-ils. Rien ne semblait indiquer une suspension des mobilisations dans les rues, où venaient se joindre aux étudiants, parents, séparatistes, syndiqués, et toute personne outrée par la loi. Après 13 semaines de malheur la crise avait fait sa première victime politique, la ministre de léducation Line Beauchamp rendant sa démission après de nouveaux pourparlers infructueux.
En quittant la parlementaire de 14 ans voulait créer l«électrochoc» désiré afin de régler le conflit. Un tel effet aurait-il eu lieu sans cette nouvelle loi, qui selon le politologue Bruce Hicks na fait que davantage mobiliser les foules sur une question fondamentale de droits? Alors que celle qui gérait le dossier au gouvernement assurait ne pas avoir cédé «devant la violence et lintimidation, devant le vandalisme... et la désobéissance civile », Beauchamp, qui a simplement quitté la politique, expliquait son geste «parce que jestime que je ne fais plus partie de la solution. »
Alors que les deux côtés de la crise entendaient se réunir cette semaine afin de repartir le dialogue, une solution échappe toujours au conflit qui déborde des frontières du Québec. Après des manifestations de sympathie à New York et Paris pour marquer les 100 jours de la grève étudiante sur les frais de scolarité, la grève la plus longue de lhistoire du Canada, les fédérations ontariennes préparaient leur propre appel à la mobilisation cette semaine. La semaine dernière des étudiants de lUniversité dOttawa bloquaient laccès à un pavillon en portant le familier carré rouge, afin de souligner leur soutient. La mobilisation sengage dautant plus sur la loi controversée, que rejette deux tiers des Québécois, que les frais de scolarité, qui resteraient les plus bas au pays avec cette majoration prévue de 80% sur sept ans.
Jumelée à la loi, larrestation de 2,500 manifestants depuis le début de la crise, 700 un seul soir dans deux villes du Québec la semaine dernière, soulevait de nouveaux boucliers. Il sagit dun chiffre total déjà 5 fois plus important que celui datant des mesures de guerre en 1970. Des débordements ont cependant infligé un oeil noir mouvement, notamment les gestes commis contre les policiers lors des manifestations et la paralysie du métro de Montréal en heure de pointe il y a quelques semaines. Quatre suspects font face à des accusations de méfait et de canular terroriste après avoir fait sauter des bombes fumigènes dans le métro, provoquant un cri de coeur du maire, pour qui la crise a dépassé toutes les bornes.
Une sévérité accrue sur le terrain et une impasse lors des pourparlers - les étudiants refusant de céder sur la nécessité dune hausse des frais - voilà les conditions qui guettent la nouvelle ministre de léducation, Michelle Courchesne, avec qui les trois grands groupes étudiants espèrent relancer de nouvelles discussions cette semaine.
Alors que les frais de solidarité sont au coeur de la crise, le conflit sest étendu sur la question des acquis sociaux et le droit à léducation, que le groupe le plus militant souhaite simplement gratuits. Il sagit dun objectif fixé pendant la Révolution tranquille qui na pas été oublié par plusieurs Québécois. Le groupe CLASSE parle toujours dun plan long-terme afin damener la gratuité au système en imposant des taxes sur le capital des institutions financières. Mais voilà qui semble aller à lencontre dun gouvernement qui avait promis dassainir les finances de la province, et qui dû aux budgets restreints de la crise et son refus daugmenter des impôts déjà parmi les plus élevés du continent, a préféré majorer les frais, un geste qui avait déjà fait reculer plusieurs gouvernements avant.
Progressivement venus se rejoindre au mouvement sont des cliques anti-Charest, indépendantistes ou anti-capitalistes. Mais la loi a de plus en plus fait sortir dans la rue des citoyens outrés par cette loi matraque. La crise a également été surveillée par certains groupes internationaux, Amnesty International regrettant les gestes agressifs des policiers à quelques reprises, et ce bien avant la flambée des arrestations. Le consulat américain à Montréal demandait le mois dernier aux touristes déviter le centre-ville, où plus de 250 man- ifestations, certaines violentes, ont eu lieu depuis le début de ce que certains appellent déjà une profonde crise sociale.
Tensions sectaires au Liban
Un petit pays ayant connu des décennies sous le joug de Damas, y laissant une cicatrice divisant camps pro et anti-Assad, le Liban semble de plus en plus destabilisé par la crise de 15 mois qui dure en Syrie. Après des éclats entre sunnites anti-Assad et alaouites pro-Assad à Tripoli faisant 10 morts et la mort de deux dignitaires sunnites tués par larmée près dun barrage, les éclats rejoignaient la capitale Beyrouth la semaine dernière, les tirs de roquettes et de carabine rappelant les pires jours de la guerre civile.
Jen ai marre, jai vécu plusieurs années de guerre, je ne peux plus rester une minute au Liban, déclarait à lAFP Amal Khattab, enseignante. Deux personnes sont mortes lors des éclats entre supporters et opposants du régime syrien. Les éclats à Tripoli, qui avaient duré plusieurs jours et blessé plus de 100 personnes, suivaient larrestation dun opposant du régime Assad de nationalité libanaise, soulignant la forte influence syrienne dans un pays où le gouvernement est dominé par le Hezbollah et ses partenaires alliés de Damas.
Pourtant lincident près du barrage militaire, que sest dit regretter larmée qui a aussitôt lancé une enquête, a sorti le premier ministre Najib Mikati de ses gonds, accusant Damas de faillir à son devoir de surveiller la frontière, et déclarant que le Liban assumait totalement son devoir de protection des frontières.
Alors que la crise syrienne donne lieu à plusieurs débordements transfrontaliers dans ce pays voisin divisé et sous influence, lambassadeur syrien auprès des Nations unies, Bachar Jaafari, a créé tout un tollé en déplorant dans une lettre adressée au secrétaire-général Ban Ki-moon que certaines régions du Liban proches de la frontière sont devenues un nid de terroristes dAl-Qaïda et des Frères musulmans.
Les tensions, déjà responsables de plusieurs manifestations parfois violentes à travers diverses villes depuis les incidents de Tripoli, ont frappé la capitale de plein fouet lorsque des hommes armés ont échangé des tirs, blessant une demi-douzaine de personnes. Selon lanalyste politique Rami Khouri, les incidents sont fortement influencés par la situation syrienne: Vous avez des tensions régionales qui remontent à des années, mais elles ont été exacerbées par la situation en Syrie, explique-t-il à Reuters. La Syrie nest pas le principal facteur, mais elle est liée.
Et si le pays voisin, qui fait actuellement lobjet dune visite de 250 observateurs de lONU, parfois pris entre les tirs, sombrait vers la guerre civile, la situation ne pourrait que devenir plus tendue au Liban, où les deux côtés du conflit sont bien représentés. Plus de 24,000 réfugiés syriens auraient trouvé refuge au Liban, et certains groupes craignent quils ne se retrouvent dans dimportants camps de réfugiés doù, comme avec les Palestiniens dans les années 70, ils pourraient davantage diviser la population.
Selon le Daily Star libanais, des membres de lopposition syrienne s'étant refugié au Liban auraient cherché lasile au sein dambassades occidentales, craignant que le régime libanais ne soit incapable de les protéger des services de renseignement syriens. Lopposition libanaise accuse Damas de vouloir semer les violences au pays du cèdre afin de détourner lattention de sa propre crise. Mais la violence au Liban est sans commune mesure avec celle de Syrie, où cette fin de semaine seulement 90 personnes, dont plusieurs enfants, périssaient à la suite de bombardements, un incident qualifié de violations flagrante de loi internationale par Ki-moon.
Selon le Star plusieurs membres de lopposition syrienne regrettent que loccident ne soit pas intervenu par la force, seule moyen, disent-ils, dêtre véritablement efficace, accusant louest davoir abandonné notre cause en se contentant dappliquer de faibles pressions diplomatiques et économiques.
En conséquent, le moral au sein des rebelles nest pas à son meilleur niveau, disent-ils. Au sommet de lOtan Anders Fogh Rasmussen se disait concerné par les dernières violences, lONU a recensé 10,000 morts depuis le début de la crise en mars 2011. Mais pas question de lancer une campagne pareille à celle de Libye. Même si la violence au Liban est moins importante, elle reste à son niveau le plus élevé depuis la crise de 2008.
Calming the waters in the South China Sea
Five vessels may seem like a lot to look over an uninhabited group of rocks totalling about 150 sq. kilometres, but put them in rich fishing grounds in the South China Sea and you have a recipe for diplomatic and even military tensions between the mighty Peoples Republic and regional lightweight the Philippines. The U.S.Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty meanwhile adds another interested observer in the mix, one whose recent pivot to Asia, notably in the Western Pacific, leaves it an active participant in a sea where territorial claims involve no less than six nations.
The crisis, which has sparked demonstrations in both countries, summoned diplomats and inflamed the local press, started innocently enough in April when Philippine authorities challenged Chinese fishing boats near the Scarborough Shoal after accusing them of fishing illegally. A Philippine navy ship tried to apprehend them, only to be blocked by a Chinese surveillance vessel in the area, and prompting an international standoff that not that long ago placed war in the headlines.
China should be prepared to engage in a small-scale war at sea with the Philippines, Chinas Global Times tabloid screamed two weeks into the melee, sparking a war of words. Once the war erupts, China must take resolute action to deliver a clear message to the outside world that it does not want a war, but definitely has no fear of it. Since there has thankfully been a de-escalation, at least in the medias call to arms, the same incendiary paper calling more recently for cooler heads to prevail.
But just as the ships facing off in the South China Sea remain - two Chinese surveillance ships and a patrol ship on one side and a Filipino coast guard and fisheries vessel on the other - so does the dispute over what the Chinese call Huangyan Islands and Manila refers to as the Panatag Shoal. While the shoal is less than 200 nautical miles from the Philippines eastern coast, within the boundary of its exclusive economic zone and extended continental shelf as outlined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, China isnt letting the 472 nautical miles separat- ing its mainland from the shoal weaken its claim.
They both have claims. China goes back centuries but the Philippines also says it has maps from the 18th century showing it belongs them, Stephanie Kleine- Ahlbrandt from the International Crisis Group tells CNN. Nor is the dispute unique in what Americas Heritage Foundation calls a maze of conflicting territorial claims.
Also lying in some of the worlds busiest shipping lanes in waters rich with fish and floating over potential sources of hydrocarbons, are the Chinese-occupied Paracels, contested by Vietnam and Taiwan, and Spratlys, claimed by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei. Most of these countries having a military presence there - a group of more than 750 reefs, islets and atolls - there is no lack of examples of territorial claims that could rep- resent potential flashpoints. Then again, the lack of any recent violence thus far over them, could mean the issues could persist for some time, unresolved, without resorting to violence.
Certainly there was a sense that this springs flare-up was indeed seeing cooler heads prevail, despite early accusations from both capitals that the other side was refusing discussions to resolve the dispute. The crisis was being observed with interest by analysts trying to ascertain how China would eventually transform its economic might into military demeanour. Certainly the timing was delicate for the U.S., conducting its largest joint exercise involving Philippine forces at the same time.
The situation, which began with a Philippine warship challenging private Chinese poachers in the waters around the shoal, has evolved into something on which no less than the credibility of Americas commitment to peace and security in the Pacific hinges, wrote Walter Lohman in a Heritage Foundation analysis this week.
Hollande, président socialiste
La surprise, tant espérée par le président sortant, na pas eu lieu. Mais la lune de miel sera courte pour François Hollande qui, à peine élu avec 51,6% au deuxième tour, a fait appel à une majorité lors du prochain rendez-vous - les législatives du mois prochain - et devra rassurer des marchés inquiétés des résultats. Ses chances sont bonnes tellement lUMP parait traumatisée, Nicolas Sarkozy ayant annoncé du fait même quil se mettait en retrait de la vie politique.
Au vu des résultats par région, je pense que les Français vont donner une majorité à la gauche, estime notre correspondante Gaelle Hautbois. Aussi parce que personne naime vraiment la cohabitation. Reste que le Front National, qui compte faire un nouvel éclat après celui du premier tour, pourrait également gâter les choses en faisant plus que diviser la droite française. La fête sera dautant plus courte pour Hollande quil doit rassurer des marchés financiers bouleversés par les votes anti-austérité, celui du jour même en Grèce rejettant les partis traditionnels.
Le lendemain du résultat les marchés européens étaient éloquents à propos de leur souci. Le jour du vote la chancelière allemande Angela Merkel invitait déjà Hollande à faire un tour chez elle afin de discuter de remèdes au mal financier européen. Ayant affiché son soutien pour le perdant, la chancelière tentera denterrer la hache de guerre et préparer les prochains geste européens avec celui qui avait déclaré son intention de renégocier le pacte continental si chéri à Berlin.
Les résultats du deuxième tour ont confirmé les derniers sondages qui resserraient quelque peu léternel écart entre les deux finalistes. Mais la tendance nétait pas près de sinverser, le centriste Francois Bayrou ayant appuyé Hollande entre les tours - accusant Sarkozy dêtre trop passé à droite - alors que le FN proposait de voter blanc. Dautre part Sarkozy navait pas obtenu le KO souhaité pour relancer sa campagne lors du débat télévisé. Bien avant la marque finale, et sentant le coup venir, Sarkozy sen est pris au ton de la campagne, et de la presse, qui selon lui na jamais été si sévère envers un candidat. Il a condamné les injures, la calomnie et les torrents doutrance, dont il a selon lui fait lobjet.
Les sondages ont régulièrement placé Hollande en avant, même si selon plusieurs observateurs lappui pour le socialiste manquait denthousiasme. Hollande de son côté prévient que les problèmes économiques et de la dette ne vont pas disparaitre avec le départ de Sarkozy. Pendant ce temps la presse financière doutre-Manche, qui navait pas été tendre envers le candidat socialiste, essayait de se faire à lidée dun président Hollande, celui-ci sécartant, sur papier du moins, de la ligne de Berlin sur laustérité, tout en proposant de nouvelles taxes, laugmentation du salaire minimum et lannulation de réformes repoussant la retraite à 62 ans.
«Arrêtez de vous inquiéter à propos dune nouvelle Révolution française!» sexclamait le journaliste Philip Stephens dans un éditorial du Financial Times, voyant en Hollande un «pragmatique» qui pourrait abandonner la rhétorique après lélection. Mais la ligne financière restait sur toutes les lèvres: «Sera-t-il capable de restaurer la confiance, de redresser une économie fragile? Ou bien présidera-t-il à une rapide descente aux enfers, suivant le chemin de la Grèce?», sinterrogeait Reuters. La Grèce, qui rejetait les politiciens de laustérité le jour même, est devenu le loup garou de lEurope.
Cette victoire signifie toute une remontée pour celui qui ne recueillait que 3% des sondages en novembre 2010, alors que le grand favori Dominique Strauss-Kahn avait la faveur du public. Cétait bien avant les incidents de New York qui allaient mettre fin aux espoirs du dirigeant du FMI, il y a un an exactement. Les plus belles victoires sont celles qui, au départ, nont pas la chance daboutir, dira-t-il alors. Il a depuis défait cinq candidats pour remporter la candidature du PS.
Profitant sans doute dune campagne qui fait de lélection un référendum sur Sarkozy, il réussira à empêcher un président sortant de remporter le premier tour pour la première fois. Pour la gauche, cest la fête, le quotidien Libération célébrant une soirée historique de la sorte: Lajoie. La joie immense. Celle de voir une parenthèse se refermer, une malédiction se dissiper. Et de quelle manière ! François Mitterrand naura pas été une anomalie de lhistoire mais le premier président de gauche. Il y en a désormais un deuxième : François Hollande. Pour le peuple de gauche, 2012 fait renaître 1981, redonne de la vie et des couleurs à ces images vieillies, sépia, qui semblaient condamnées aux livres dhistoire. Aux souvenirs intimes des anciens ou des gosses que certains dentre nous étaient alors."
They march
As economic blight and austerity measures bite on both sides of the Atlantic, Quebec students carry on into a fourth month of protests and Occupy participants welcomed the warmer seasons with new schemes, there was an extra intensity to this years May Day demonstrations across the globe. Labour groups in various corners of the planet are experiencing dramatic circumstances and seeing their membership reduced by tough fiscal measures shrinking governments across the board.
In many instances the protests were only a continuation of street movements already carried out, from Spain and Greece, still reeling from the eurocrisis, to the Czech Republic, where demonstrators have been calling for reforms. While the government managed to hang on in Prague others across Europe have tumbled, in a trend that continued during the weekends French and Greek elections. They would follow government collapses in the Netherlands and Romania, falling to the pressures that have seen cabinets toppled in Finland, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.
On the other side of the Atlantic an unending student protest movement some of the international media have called Quebecs Maple Spring was joined by labour unions facing their own dramatic cutbacks as the federal government seeks to slash billions from the budget over the next few years, taking a cut in every department run by Ot- tawa. Cutbacks in everything from environmental monitoring, increasingly left to the provinces devices, to Veterans Affairs, where elderly customers are expected to increasingly carry out their transitions online rather than face to face in regional offices, are planning a drastic shrinking of the federal governments presence even in this relatively well-off economy. The conservative government, celebrating one year of majority rule after the May 2, 2011 election, says this fiscal prudence is the reason why Canada will avoid other countries fates.
Amid these cutbacks, governments have been coming under pressure for other purchases many consider untimely, from Canadas procurement process to replace its fleet of F-18 fighter jets, the countrys most expensive military purchase, billed at $25 billion and counting, to the more affordable $1 million Royal visit by Prince Charles and Camilla. Across the Pond Britain still carries the scars of last years massive city riots, in part a protest against billions spent to host the Olympic games in times of austerity measures. Critics have called both expensive bread and games expenses.
Resistance to the austerity measures is fuelling much of the political debate as observers question whether such draconian cuts are what the doctor should be ordering in times of economic slowdown. In Canada, where growth is nearly enviable, parliaments budget watchdog says theres a cost even to the cuts in store. In a report tabled at the end of April, Kevin Page said the governments planned $5.2 billion cuts over the next years will lead to 108,000 fewer jobs and reduced growth. It echoed the International Labour Organizations May Day assessment that the austerity measures would only worsen the job crisis, especially in Europe, which has seen its unemployment rate climb to 10.9%, and threatens to return many economies down the recessionary path.
Globally the UN agency painted an alarming portrait of joblessness saying global unemployment will hit 202 million this year, up from 196 million at the end of 2011, and rise further in 2013. Unemployment is still 50 mil- lion jobs short of where it stood when the financial crisis hit. Unemployment is particularly prevalent among youths, feeding the Occupy resurgence, especially recent college graduates. According to a recent poll 53% of recent U.S. gradu- ates are under or unemployed. Even among those who have re- cently found jobs, such as con- tributor Stephanie Couvrette, the hunt hasnt been easy. It took me almost a year, she says.
According to a commentary by Atlantic magazine The story would seem to be more evidence that, regardless of your education, the wake of the Great Recession has been a terrible time to be young and hunting for work, prompting it to ask: Are we really becoming another Greece or Spain, a wasteland of opportunity for anybody under the age of 25? While U.S. figures are improving over all and unemployment could drop be- low 8% by Novembers election, well-timed for the incumbent, the UN agency says theres reasons to be concerned.
This is not a normal employment slowdown, the ILO report says. Four years into the global crisis, labour market im- balances are becoming more structural, and therefore more difficult to eradicate. With unemployment in some economies in the double digits for years, it wasnt surprising some of the May Day protests got rocky, demonstrators clashing with au- thorities in Italy, while Americas Occupy movement made a violent comeback with clashes leading to arrests in cities such as New York and Seattle.
In the midst of its student crisis, Montreal didnt disappoint either, one night protest degenerating into a messy street clash leading to the arrest of over 100 people. The ILO reports warning of possible social unrest because of policies of cutting deficits at all costs to appease financial markets, seemed like a fait accompli. Austerity has not produced more economic growth, lead author Raymond Torres said, stressing that combining these measures and labour market reforms has had devastating consequences for the job market. The global employment situation is alarming and shows no signs of recovery in the near future, the ILO said, noting global numbers of 3% in 2011 are looking to reach twice as much this year.
Even in Canada, where the numbers look comparably healthy, at around 7% unemployment, new jobs created tend to be more unstable and precarious, the ILO says, leading to a lack of room for prospering and moving up the career ladder, and more inequality overall, and thus more fuel for the 99% movement. Growing inequality is something to be taken quite seriously and can lead to more violence, even in Canada, warned author Richard Wilkinson, who wrote The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better. He told The Huffington Post Canada had to avoid becoming a society where people are more out for themselves, leading to anti-social behaviour that can only spell trouble.
I expect if your income differences keep rising, as I think they have been since the early 1990s, you will become a more anti-social society, people will be more out for themselves, said the retired professor of social epidemiology, warning of a possible rise in crime comparable to what is seen south of the border. In Europe unemployment has climbed in two-thirds of countries since 2010 as unemployment, inching close to 11%, reaches the highest levels since the euro was introduced.
If theres some silver lining according to some observers, its that the new alarming levels attained will encourage policymakers to consider stimulating rather than restraining the economy The question is how long EU leaders will con- tinue to pursue a deeply flawed strategy in the face of mounting evidence that this is leading us to social, economic and politi- cal disaster, economic think-tank expert Sony Kapoor tells AP.
Another victory for global justice
Another month, another victory for international justice, especially when it comes to the prosecution of leaders involved in shamefully recruiting child soldiers to do their evil deeds. Weeks after Congos Thomas Lubanga Dyilo became the first man convicted by the International Criminal Court in a case that had both international prosecutors and advocates of victims of childrens rights cheering, former Liberian president Charles Taylor became the first head of state to be tried and convicted by such a tribunal since the Second World war.
The Hagues Special Court for Sierra Leone, where some 50,000 people were killed during the blood-diamond fuelled civil war, found him guilty of all 11 charges - one for every year of the civil war - of aiding and abetting atrocities in nearby Sierra Leone, from murder, terrorism and pillage to enslavement and enlisting children under 15. While international justice can be slow, former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic dying before his trial ended, and appear without teeth, Sudanese leader Omar Al-Bashir laughing at the sight of his warrant by The Hagues International Criminal Court, officials say this serves notice impunity has seen its final days.
With leadership comes not just power and authority, but also responsibility and accountability. No person, no matter how powerful, is above the law, said the courts chief prosecutor Brenda Hollis. But while the verdict was welcomed in various international circles, it was widely condemned in his homeland of Liberia, where Taylor has yet to face justice and remains popular among many.
I fail to imagine why anyone would want to see their president found guilty it saddens me to know that there are people out there who are taking pleasure in this, Kasseh Wesseh, secretary general of the Center for Excellence of Intel- lectual Ideas tells the Christian Science Monitor. [He] should be living here happily and freely with us just as others, who perpetrated mayhem and other serious crimes, are living with us today on the basis of reconciliation, people are taking pleasure in seeing one individual being nailed, that is my sadness.
Human rights advocates are meanwhile disappointed Liberia hasnt emulated Sierra Leone in bringing the strongman to justice. Liberia has yet to initiate prosecutions for heinous crimes committed there, including under Taylors presidency. Liberia should follow Sierra Leones example so that Liberian victims can also see justice done, said Elise Keppler, of Human Rights Watch.
Theyre not going down the justice route, thats obvious, Stephen Rapp of the U.S. State Department said of the Liberian government. It still has to work through this process because obviously people involved in the crimes other than Charles Taylor still have to answer for those crimes. Some also regret Taylor, who befriended Lubanga in ICC detention, was only found guilty of aiding and abetting and not of more direct charges relating to his role in supporting Revolutionary United Front in Sierra Leone, which during its 1991-2002 reign of terror hacked off peoples limbs, promoted rape on a wide scale, abductions, slavery, and forced enlistment of young children.
And critics fear the conviction will only encourage those facing charges to fight on, rather than step down, as Taylor did in 2003 when he resigned in the face of international pressure, going into exile before he was extradited and transferred to the UN to face charges. Meanwhile theres no lack of reminders that many wanted by the International Criminal Court are not only out of custody but quite active. Recently troops loyal to Gen. Bosco Ntaganda, known as The Terminator and also accused of making use of child soldiers, seized two towns in the Democratic Republic of Congos volative east region, sending thousands fleeing troubles there.
Chief of military operations for Lubanga, Ntaganda is notoriously wanted in connec- tion with the 2008 Kiwanja massacre, summary executions of some 150 mostly young men in that Congolese town. Despite the ICCs warrant, Congo has called for his arrest but says it will refuse to hand him over to The Hague.
Préparant le second tour
La fin de l'ère Sarkozy a-t-elle sonné après un seul quinquennat, faisant de lui seulement le deuxième président non ré-lu de la cinquième république?
La question était pertinente et aura sa réponse le 6 mai lors du second tour opposant le candidat de l'UMP au socialiste Francois Hollande. Mais le soir du premier tour, c'est la grande absente du prochain rendez-vous qui a créé une onde de choc et dont le nom était sur toutes les lèvres. Marine Le Pen a semé la consternation en enregistrant 18,5% des voix lors de ce premier tour ou 80% des électeurs s'étaient prononcés, soit encore mieux que le le score qui avait envoyé son père, le fondateur du FN, au second tour dix ans plus tot. La tuerie de Montauban s'était-elle invité à la présidentielle avec ce succès inattendu de l'extrême-droite?
"Je suis choqué par le 20% du FN," réagit Benoit Tybo, un correspondant de Bretagne qui s'affiche "dépité" par la vague "bleu marine" du Front National. "Rien n'est joué mais la gauche est favorie," estime pour sa part Damien de Charry à Paris. Comment se répartiront ces votes du FN?
Le soir des résultats, Hollande, qui récolte 28,8%, se hâta de se proclamer "le candidat du rassemblement" après un vote qui selon lui avait été une "sanction" du quinquennat précédent.
En fait c'est à 17 années de présidence à droite que les socialistes tentent de mettre un terme alors que la France passe aux urnes.
Hollande était donné favori dans la plupart des sondages, et reste favori au second tour, après avoir mené une campagne tournée en référendum sur le président sortant.
Lors des derniers jours de la campagne il a fait appel à l'appui de ses partisans, cherchant à éviter l'apathie de sondages favorables, pour que Sarkozy recoive la "vague du changement... de face".
Ce dernier, avec ses 27%, était loin de se décourager, même si perdre le premier tour se produit rarement pour un président sortant, y voyant "un vote de crise témoignant les angoisses".
Il a cependant cherché à mettre fin aux rumeurs de tandem UMP-FN, déclarant qu'alors qu'il n'était pas question de "diaboliser" les électeurs du FN, il n'était pas question d' "accord" avec le parti d'extrême-droite non plus. Le Pen pour sa part prévoit déjà un coup d'éclat aux législatives de cet été, soit de s'approprier la droite toute entière.
Le pays est aux prises avec les tensions financières de la zone euro et un chômage important qui reste le triste palmarès d'une droite qui avait promis de relancer l'emploi.
Mais les intérêts financiers redoutent un candidat de gauche qui a promis d'augmenter les taxes sur la richesse et les dépenses publiques, même s'il promet de mettre fin aux déficits d'ici 2017.
Le magazine britannique Economist n'a pas mâché ses mots sur la question, voyant en Hollande un «homme plutôt dangereux» dont l'élection serait «mauvaise pour son pays et pour l'Europe», citant un besoin «criant de réforme» dans l'hexagone.
Par ailleurs 49% voient toujours en Sarkozy le plus apte des deux à prendre des décisions difficiles, ou alors les "bonnes décisions" dans le contexte économique actuel (41%).
Hollande promet sinon une présidence plus "modeste" après les éclats de celle de son prédécesseur, ce qui ne déplait pas à tout le monde.
Celui-ci a pu s'attirer l'appui de plusieurs politiciens de droite lors des derniers jours de la campagne, dont certains anciens ministres de Sarkozy. Parmi eux Martin Hirsch, ancien haut-commissaire aux solidarités actives contre la pauvreté et la jeunesse. Hollande peut également compter sur l'appui de trois ex-ministres de Jacques Chirac, dont l'ancienne ministre de l'environnement Corinne Lepage, notamment selon elle pour éviter "la réélection de Nicolas Sarkozy".
Mais les dernières heures de la campagne ont été marquées par un nombre record d'indécis, plus du tiers des électeurs, donnant à l'élection un air d'imprévisibilité.
"Pour le 2ème tour, tout est possible. Sarkozy est une bête de scène et il est capable d'inverser la tendance même si une majorité de Français veulent se débarrasser de lui, nous livre Gaelle Hautbois. Rien n'est encore joué."
Alors que Sarkozy prévient qu'élire Hollande signifierait de plonger le pays dans la voie financière catastrophique de la Grèce, une quarantaine d'économistes ont également signalé leur appui pour le candidat socialiste.
Hollande par ailleurs tente de devenir seulement le deuxième président la gauche de la Ve république. Francois Mitterrand, le premier, a quitté ses fonctions il y a 17 ans après 14 années au pouvoir, plus de 5100 jours, à la présidence, un record suivi d'une autre longue période sous Chirac.
The monster's ball
As expected, and feared, there was no remorse or apology from mass killer Anders Breivik when his trial started in an Oslo courtroom especially built for the country's largest postwar trial to face terror charges, only defiance, and a few misplaced tears.
They weren't for the 77 victims of his bombing-shooting spree of July 22, 2011 which shocked this largely peaceful north European nation, but for an anti-Muslim video he had posted that was entered into evidence.
Not only did he claim his innocence for the massacre on the dubious grounds of self defence, citing its place during a "clash of civilizations", he said he didn't recognize a court that gets its "mandate from the Norwegian political parties who support multiculturalism."
He described the killings as "a small barbarian act to prevent a larger barbarian act".
As the victims of the tragedy rightly feared, these were going to be 10 long and difficult weeks of trial in the Norwegian capital, which like much of the country and world still fails to understand Breivik's twisted crusading rationale, one he insisted was shared by many right-wingers, who thankfully have thus far failed to rally behind the 33-year-old's campaign of terror.
Norwegian TV has been broadcasting some of the proceedings live but did not carry Breivik's testimony live by fear of inspiring right-wing zealots. But some fear Breivik has already obtained the exposure he has been craving since he threw his hands up in the air on the bloodied shores of the island of Utoya, where he had slaughtered so many youths taking part in a party-run summer camp.
On the second day of the trial he was allowed to read a statement that was nothing short of boastful of his acts. "I have carried out the most spectacular and sophisticated attack on Europe since World War II," he said. "These acts are based on goodness, not evil," he said, in order to save the country from liberal, Muslim influences. Oddly he said he had carried out his attacks based on al-Qaida tactics, and claimed Sept. 11 and NATO's bombing of Serbia had precipitated his radicalism.
For the families of the victims, the terror only promised to continue during the long weeks of a trial expected to stretch into July. "It's going to be 10 weeks of hell ... to hear this man, to hear his explanation of why he did it, and how he did it," said Trond Henry Blattmann, whose son was among the victims.
This certainly applied on the particularly disturbing day Breivik described how he fooled guards into believing he was sent to protect the children after the Oslo bombing, only to start an orgy of slaughter where he often confronted children too paralyzed by fear to run before he shot them in the head.
"It's about gruesome, barbaric acts and I cannot even start to conceive what it is like for others," he said, adding he did everything to remain indifferent to the deaths around him. "Under normal circumstances" he found himself to be "a very nice person, very caring about those around me".
Compounding the tragedy perpetrated by the monster, who acknowledged the killings and only expressed regret the already staggering death toll - the highest since the wars in Norway - wasn't higher, was his insensitivity to the suffering, bloodshed and loss, while he shed tears only destined for his maniacal ideology expressed on an online video.
The Breivik who broke down in day one as his 12-minute video of Vlad the Impaler was shown was no longer the smug dark-suited person who had, one his hands freed of cuffs, extended his arm in the clenched-fisted salute of the far right. He later dropped the salute.
"I admit to the acts, but not criminal guilt," he told the court.
This week he stared with evident indifference as the first witnesses described the bloodied scenes as the smoke lifted from the bombing of the Oslo government building, revealing bodies lying across the street. The relatively limited death toll made him turn his sights on Utoya and the helpless victims on the isolated island northwest of the capital.
The first of many intense court days over the next weeks took place after a period of uncertainty surrounding Breivik's mental state, one psychiatric report reporting him sane and another legally insane. This issue is central to the court case. Breivik will insist he was well aware of his acts and, given the chance, would perpetrate them again. He said he would do everything to stay out of a psychiatric institution.
According to defense lawyer Geir Lippestad, such is his conviction that the attacks were necessary "because he wants to save Europe from an ongoing war."
Breivik said later in the week he had planned three car bombings but found building the bombs too difficult. Like Dawson shooter Kimveer Gil, he had practised his attacks playing shooting video games.
Twice Breivik called police to turn himself in, once identifying himself as a commander of "the Norwegian resistance movement" saying he had "just completed an operation on behalf of Knights Templar." Their failure to immediately return his calls only led to more bloodshed, he said. Police response to the crisis, particularly the bloodshed on the island, has been the subject of much criticism leading up to the trial. Some fear the justice system in the country isn't up to the task either.
Besides being concerned Breivik will use the trial to publicize his views, victims groups are worried the sentence he is facing may not exceed the 21 years prescribed by the Norwegian justice system. On the second day of trial a lay judge, a member of the public serving as judge, had to be dismissed following his earlier statements Breivik should face the death penalty, which doesn't exist in Norway.
Even Breivik, who admitted he was surprised to have survived the day he committed the murders, weighed in on the punishment that may await him. "There are only two just and fair outcomes of this trial - acquittal or capital punishment. I consider 21 years of prison as a pathetic punishment," he said, though prosecutors have hinted the 21 years may be extended indefinitely.
But amid the horrific testimony Norwegians stood strong and defiant this week when artist Lillebjørn Nilsen led a mass choir downtown Oslo to sing his song "Children of the Rainbow", one Breivik cited as being a Marxist influence on Norwegian children.
Gathered by Facebook, 40,000 Norwegians sung in the pouring rain lyrics describing a "world where - every sister and every brother - shall live together - like small children of the rainbow".
More tests for West Africa
What if you scheduled an election and they held a coup d'etat instead? Such was the sad turn of events in Guinea Bissau one week before the scheduled second round of presidential elections and weeks after similar rumblings in nearby Mali.
It was hardly a first for the West African nation, which saw a number of military takeovers tarnish its reputation since its independence from Portugal in 1974 - no leader has ever served a full term since - four in the last dozen years. A relative stability had set in since the last coup in 2008, until this January when the president died in a Paris hospital, leaving interim President Raimundo Pereira to take over as elections were held.
The latter as well as front-runner Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Jr. being under military custody, political opponents rallied to their support, second-place finisher Kumba Yala, himself deposed in a coup nearly a decade ago, condemning the coup which has made the military such an intrusive force in West African politics in the last weeks alone. He joined other former candidates to "strongly condemn all forms of taking power by force."
"We firmly condemn the April 12 military uprising and demand the quick return of constitutional order," they said.
Mali meanwhile was still struggling with the aftermath of an earlier coup by soldiers seeking better weapons to fight a northern Tuareg insurgency which has captured cities since. While the situation seems to have stabilized in the capital Bamako, where an interim leader has since assured he would respect the constitution, the void created in the north by the departure of soldiers is being slowly filled by Islamist forces, competing with Tuareg rebels - many of whom have returned from Libya following the revolution that overthrew Gaddafi - for influence.
Still confusion abounds in Mali, soldiers arresting a number of political leaders as the military served notice it would still very much remain involved in domestic politics.
As a National Transitional Council was being formed with a number of political parties in Guinea Bissau, except the ruling party, UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon regretted the projectors were once again being drawn onto the region for the wrong reasons.
"This is particularly disturbing as it comes at a time when the people of Guinea-Bissau should be preparing through multiparty democratic elections to elect a new president," he said.
The francophonie and African Union banished the country from its ranks while the African Development Bank said it was withholding aid.
This week regional ECOWAS group said it will send military forces to both countries to monitor their transitions back to civilian rule after their coups, threatening sanctions if junta leaders cling to power.
In the mean time Guinea's junta and chosen political participants named the third-place finisher in the first round, Manuel Serifo Nhamajo, who has served as vice-president in the national assembly, as interim leader. But the ruling party says it "rejects any government stemming from a coup d'etat."
So many woes for this small nation of 1.6 million, which has developed the dubious reputation of being a hub for the drug trade, largely due to its geographic location.
Suu Kyi's moment of triumph
Long revered as Burmas brave and unflinching opposition leader, a Nobel prize laureate under house arrest for years for her democratic activism, Aung San Suu Kyi only won her first electoral seat this weekend at the age of 66 after struggling with illness in the final stretch of Burmas historic byelection. In the end only 45 seats of Burmas 664-seat assembly were contested in Sundays contest, but this made it no less a milestone election after months of re- form have been leaving observers pleased, but curious about the next moves in store by the junta-led government. The vote was the first one Suu Kyis National League for Democracy was able to compete in since 1990, the year it won elections that were annulled and she was not allowed to register for.
It follows a string of at times surprising reforms under president Thein Sein from added media freedom to the release of some political prisoners and labour union reforms. Party supporters fêted in the streets after the win even as Suu Kyi urged them to show restraint. It is natural that the NLD members and their supporters are joyous at this point, she said. However, it is necessary to avoid manners and actions that will make the other parties and members upset. It is very important that NLD members take special care that the success of the people is a dignified one.
As the victory party that ensued showed, it wont be easy con- trolling some of the hopeful enthusiasm that greeted her victory. Party supporters failed to keep a growing crowd of around 10,000 from celebrating outside NLD headquarters in the main city of Rangoon when the results were posted. Our will is even stronger this time, said 45-year-old supporter Kyi Kyi Hlang in Ran- goon. Weve had so many difficulties since then, but with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in parliament, there can be so many changes.
In the end the NLD swept 43 of the available seats, even in areas recently won by the regimes party. It is not so much our triumph as a triumph of the people, who have decided that they must be involved in the political process of this country, Suu Kyi told supporters Monday. We hope that this will be the beginning of a new era, when there will be more emphasis on the role of the people in the everyday politics of our country. We hope that all other parties that took part in the elections will be in a position to cooperate with us to create a genuinely democratic atmosphere.
Even in the conservative capital of Naypyitaw results showed the party had made gains, which nevertheless leaves the army and its proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party with about 80% of seats in parliament. Despite the victory and congratulations from capitals for organizing the vote, the NLD voiced concerns about a number of irregularities on voting day. Suu Kyi herself had earlier conceded that the campaigning was anything but free or fair, but said she was pursuing her campaign because it was what our people want.
Hoping to change the system from within after years of out- side opposition and house arrest, the daughter of the architect of Burmas independence is in a strategic symbiosis with the ruling junta, Maung Zarni, a Myanmar expert and a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics told AP. They need her and she needs them to break the 25 years of political stalemate, Zarni said. She holds the key for the regimes need for its international acceptance and normalization.
But Suu Kyi has called for changes to the constitution to reduce the militarys role, in addition to seeking the end of the countrys ongoing and violent ethnic insurgencies. Some of the measures undertaken by the regime so far have brought results as shown by words of encouragement from foreign capitals, the U.S. looking to lift more sanctions this week, but many countries have taken a wait and see approach before ending more restrictions against the 50-year-old hardline regime.
Democracy is hard to achieve and even if it is ob- tained, it will not be easy to sus- tain. We all have to work hard, Suu Kyi said. According to Asia expert Bruce Gilley, the NLD "needs to start acting like a political party rather than a social movement," in order to obtain further progress.
Tibet's horror
In early March, it was 20-year-old Tsering Kyi, who walked out of a public toilet in Gansu province in a gasoline-soaked garment she lit on fire, living her final moment with a fist defiantly raised in the air. The following day the U.K.-based Free Tibet Group reported the death of a mother-of-four who set herself on fire near the Kirti Monastery, one said to be at the centre of the protest movement, in Sichuan province. Then it was for 18-year-old Dorjee to take his own life in this similar horrible fashion, setting himself on fire near a government building, also in Sichuan province.
Ignored by the national Chinese media, over 30 immolations of Tibetans have been documented in the last year, most resulting in deaths, most of them people under 30. Many of these desperate cries for freedom were taking place in March, the month marking the anniversary of the Dalai Lamas flight from China in 1959 and four years after particularly violent demonstrations in Tibet resulted in hundreds of deaths. The conditions have hardly improved since in the special autonomous region Beijing has tried to convert with a combination of carrot, in the form of economic measures, and stick. The Dalai Lama, who had hinted in recent years he would curtail his activities, urged Beijing to act to relieve the misery responsible for such desperate measures.
These incidents of self-immolation are very very sad. The leadership in Beijing should look into the ultimate cause of these tragic incidents, he said. These Tibetans have faced a tremendously desperate situation, otherwise nobody will commit such drastic acts. But Beijing responded with even greater security crackdowns, adding checkpoints in the streets and monitoring devices to monasteries, when officials werent shutting them down altogether. According to the Tibetan Center for Human Rights and Democracy 20 of 22 monasteries in Tibets Diru county alone were closed.
The struggle is an old and basic one, the protection of ones culture and religion, freedoms long denied to citizens of Chinas southwestern region Beijing has sought to flood with Han immigrants and consumer goods. But even a generation of monks too young to remember the protests of the late 1980s, reacted with the same silent outrage to the replacement of traditional teachers or Tibetan textbooks. Robert Barnett, director of the Modern Tibet Studies Program at Columbia University, tells the New York Times such measures may have had the opposite effect.
History suggests it is unlikely to work, he said of the measures that have reversed the autonomous areas traditional self-management policies. Chinese officials think theyre on the right side of history, blaming the Dalai Lama and the so-called Tibetan government-in-exile to restore Tibets feudal serfdom and split the autonomous region from, as one official put it recently.
Padma Choling, chairman of Southwest Chinas Tibet autonomous region, accused the so-called terrorist separatists in a televised speech of all kinds of extreme, violent behaviours to disrupt the peaceful life of the Tibetan people.
His reaction followed the immolation of Tibetan exile Jamphel Yeshi in Delhi, before a visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao. While pictures and video from Tibet are nearly impossible to come by due to the security clampdown, Delhis much-publicized event provided rare and gruesome images of Tibets struggle. But the act, like the ones that preceded it, moved Chinese officials little. These acts aimed at achieving Tibetan independence and separatism through taking peoples lives will never possibly be successful and will be severely condemned by the international community, said Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei.
While rejecting the Chinese governments position, the government-in-exile sought to discourage supporters from taking their lives to bring attention to their cause. In the long-term interest of the Tibetan cause, we urge Tibetans to focus on secular and monastic education to provide the necessary human resources and the capability to strengthen and sustain our movement, it said in a statement. We once again remind Tibetans to refrain from drastic actions.
Meanwhile supporters of 27-year-old Yeshi circulated a letter he penned March 16, entitled wishes of the latest self-immolator in which he says: Offering the precious human body to the fire in the 21st century is a sheer signal of the 6 million Tibetans telling people of the world that Tibetans have no human rights and equality.
Une transition pacifique
Cette grogne, ces éclats, cétait une démocratie en colère. En fin de compte, le modèle Sénégalais a prévalu. Alors que le Mali sombrait dans la crise Abdoulaye Wade, dont la candidature était selon ses critiques anticonstitutionnelle, avouait sa défaite face à lancien premier ministre Macky Sall au second tour et ce même avant le dévoilement des résultats officiels. Sagissait-il de retrouver une certaine dignité après 12 années au pouvoir quelque peu entachées par la controverse explosive qui a accompagnée lannonce de sa candidature?
Ce lundi Sall prêtait serment dobserver et de faire observer les dispositions de la Constitution au Sénégal, et de défendre lintégrité territoriale lors dune cérémonie dinvestiture à Dakar, après avoir remporté 65% des voix au second tour de la présidentielle. Les résultats avaient été accueillis avec joie dans les rues de la capitale, si tendues à la veille du premier tour, et soulagement ailleurs, les observateurs voyant les autres modèles de démocratie dans la région, du Mali à la Côte dIvoire, sombrer dans la violence. Cette semaine le voisin mauritanien était également sous les feux, des manifestants faisant appel à la démission du président au pouvoir depuis un coup d'état en 2008. Est-ce le vent libre de Dakar?
Le grand vainqueur de la soirée électorale? Cest le peuple, déclare lheureux-élu, qui annonce louverture dune ère nou- velle. Les électeurs ont voté dans le calme et la sérénité, ce qui est un motif de fierté pour chacun de nous. (...) Nous avons prouvé à la face du monde que notre démocratie est majeure, dit-il, espérant faire oublier une campagne parfois marquée par la violence, notamment la mort de six personnes à son moment le plus fort. Ces victimes, selon Sall, nétaient rien de moins que les martyrs de la démocratie, auxquels il rendait hommage, eux qui ont perdu la vie pour défendre la Constitution, dans les semaines ayant précédé le premier tour du 26 février.
En fin de compte, le Sénégal aura à nouveau réussi à garder ses soldats dans les casernes malgré les autres crises qui peuvent le guetter, dune pénurie alimentaire dans certaines régions, au chômage passant par les accusations de corruption aux plus hauts niveaux. Cest entre autre la controverse entourant les dépenses publiques du fils de Wade, Karim, qui aura creusé un fossé entre le président sortant et Sall. Les craintes de népotisme ont notamment emporté la rue, plusieurs voyant dans les derniers gestes de Wade lintention de mettre son fils dans le chemin de sa succession.
Sall prévoit plusieurs changements dès son entrée en scène, notamment le passage du mandat présidentiel de sept à cinq ans et la limite dune seule ré-élection.Mais dans limmédiat, la crise alimentaire qui men- ace lensemble du Sahel lengage à re- specter ses promesses de réduire le prix des denrées alimentaires. Sajoutaient aux chants et fêtes avenue de lobélisque les mots de félicitations de la toile. Que dieu te bénisse et guide tes pas pour le développement de notre cher pays le Sénégal parce quune très lourde tâche tattend, inscrivait Khadidiatou Niang sur la page Facebook du nouveau président.
Des mots dencouragements accompagnés de nombreuses interrogations. Une question monsieur le président: Et si les caisses sont vides comment ferez-vous pour la baisse des denrées de première nécessité, la satis- faction des profs pour sauver lannée scolaire, et... enfin terminer les chantiers que Wade tenait coûte que coûte à terminer comme si les autres en étaient incapables ? sinterroge Bebe Sall.
Les métropoles du monde ont accueilli avec enthousiasme lélection de cette république dont les premiers gestes électoraux remontent à plus de 160 ans. Il ny avait quà constater le contraste à la frontière, où une semaine après le coup détat au Mali de soldats mécontents, les rebelles touareg occupaient des villes du nord.
Pour le sociologue Hadiya Tandian, le geste final de Wade a aidé à rétablir la réputation du pays ouest africain. Il sagit dune grande victoire pour le Sénégal, on a démontré la maturité de notre démocratie, explique Tandian. Ca montre que les Sénégalais sont confiants que la carte électorale peu apporter du changement. Ca montre que notre long héritage démocratique est bien en vie. En plus de choisir un premier ministre cette semaine, Sall a nommé le chanteur Youssou N'dour au poste de ministre de la culture et du tourisme, lui dont la candidature avait été rejetée plus tôt cette année.
La misère de Montréal
Fallait-il quen cette saison où les nids de poule mettent la ville reine à nu un classement soit si cinglant? Le premier jour du printemps une étude sur la qualité de la vie est venue placer Montréal non pas 14e, ou encore 49e, mais bien 149e rang au pays, un chiffre aussi étonnant que le nombre de villes même de taille moyenne au Canada parait inférieur. Et pourtant, faut-il leur en vouloir? Saison de misère du Canadien, enquête sur la corruption, infrastructures défaillantes... la vie était déjà dure pour les citoyens de la deuxième métropole au pays en ce début de saison. Mais alors que les mouvements populaires sont chose fréquente en ville, surtout pendant la belle saison, le printemps a vu une série de manifestations paralyser Montréal comme seul un écroulement peut le faire.
La grogne cette année, année ou veille dannée électorale, est principalement étudiante, des centaines détudiants, parfois des milliers, prenant les rues dassaut presque quotidiennement pour faire reculer les projets de hausse de frais de scolarité du gouvernment déficitaire. Le jour même de léclosion du printemps, un mouvement manifestant paralysait un axe routier crucial, bloquant quelque temps le pont Champlain, le plus circulé au pays. Pourtant le budget provincial du jour gardait la ligne dure sur la question des hausses de frais de scolarité. Pendant ce temps, à lautre bout de la ville, une autre manif, de travailleurs renvoyés cette fois, paralysait un bout de ville près des quartiers généraux dAir Canada. Cette fois la police était intervenue pour mettre de lordre, arrêtant un manifestant et lâchant du gaz CS.
Voilà qui devient scène familière. Quelques jours plus tôt 226 jeunes étaient interpellés après lannuelle et toujours violente manifestation contre la violence policière, scène de saccage de véhicules et de magasins. Quelques jours plus tard, après la répétition générale le moment de vérité: une manifestation monstrueuse comptant 200,000 participants. Alors que le tout sest fait pacifiquement cette fois, il nempêche que la deuxième métropole du pays se retrouvait encore prise en otage. En conséquent les lignes de animateurs médiatiques ne dérougissent plus tellement le ras-le-bol devient général après des semaines de désordre.
En plus de mettre en péril lannée scolaire des étudiants, cest une économie locale déjà affaiblie qui fait les frais de tant de perturbations. Les chiffres sont difficiles à comptabiliser, mais les associations de marchands, de camionneurs ainsi que la chambre de commerce ne doutent pas que les pertes se comptent par mil- lions. Ca a un impact impor- tant, résume Marc Cadieux de lassociation des camionneurs, ça baisse les revenus et ça fait grimper les coûts dopération quand vous êtes pris dans le traffic. Multipliez les délais par 10,000, soit le nombre de camions qui traversent le pont le plus achalandé au pays, et vous en aurez une idée, dit-il.
Il y a de la sympathie de la part des camionneurs, dit-il mais il ne faut pas tenir en otage un segment de la population qui ne peut en rien changer la situation. Le jour de la manif monstre que plusieurs comparent à celle qui avait précédé le référendum de 1995, une action directe étudiante au port de Montréal avait causé dautres délais. Et alors que le gouvernment refuse de fléchir, les étudiants menacent de continuer des actions visant des intérêts politiques et économiques particuliers, dont les comtés de certains libéraux ou des infrastructures économiques clé. Voilà qui naugure rien de bon pour les marchands de la ville pour qui les manifs à répétition représentent toute une pilule à avaler.
Alors que ceux-ci espéraient profiter du temps exceptionnel qui a suivi la saison maigre, les marchands ont dû placarder leurs boutiques pour éviter le pire, et encaisser des pertes. Selon le président de lassociation de la rue Crescent Steve Siozos, les pertes sont de lordre de 30% à 50% en temps de désordre. Ca nous tue, dit-il, puis que les commerces en ville souffrent déjà des embouteillements et du manque de places de stationnement. Alors quun gouffre sépare les situations économiques entre la Grèce et le Canada, les mouvements étudiants gênants avaient de quoi rappeler létat de siège constant en vigueur à Athènes, où récemment encore des grèves de tout genre et notamment du secteur des transports paralysaient la capitale.
Pour les manifestants à Montréal qui veulent blesser le gouvernement là où ça fait mal, cest mission accomplie. Nous visons Jean Charest, et puisquil dit que léconomie constitue sa priorité, les tactiques ont lair de fonctionner. Ces derniers jours encore les manifestants mobilisaient lescouade anti-émeute lors dactions de genre guérilla aux quatre coins de la ville, visant parfois les comtés de parlementaires élus avec une mince majorité, afin de pouvoir convaincre les électeurs de changer de cap le moment électoral venu. Plusieurs manifs avaient également lieu devant la résidence privée du premier ministre à Westmount et dans sa circonscription de Sherbrooke.
Charest quant à lui refuse toujours de fléchir sur le fond des hausses, même sil sestime flexible sur la forme des mesures nécessaires, son parti proposant cette semaine d'élargir le programme de prêts étudiants pour mettre fin à la grève étudiante la plus longue de l'histoire de la province. Le sujet créait des divisions à L'assemblée nationale, où le Parti Québécois, ses membres portant parfois les couleurs de la manifestation, se disait prêt à discuter avec les étudiants. Refusant toute concession et outrés de ne pas avoir été consultés au préalable, les étudiants se jurent de remporter cette guerre dusure.
En attendant pour Montréal, cest un autre oeil au beurre noir, et le ras-le-bol de certains, même parmi les étudiants, est palpable. Car l'affaire entre dans les tribunaux, quelques injonctions en cour prévoyant que certains lieux soient libérés de manifestants pour permettre aux étudiants anxieux de perdre leur année de poursuivre leurs cours. Puis l'affaire atteint de nouveaux sommets après des appels à la bombe à Montréal et Alma cette semaine.
Au sein de la population générale, le ras-le-bol semble davantage prononcé. Ce sont des idiots ces étudiants! proteste Line Couvrette. Ils ne savent pas à quel point ils sont chanceux. La province jouit des frais les plus faibles à travers le pays. En fin de compte, cest à ceux qui travaillent de payer pour ceux qui refusent de le faire et jen ai mon compte de payer pour tout le monde!
Une tuerie choc en France
Tons mordants de la campagne présidentielle, passé troublé du suspect ou politiques dimmigration plus sévères, les possibles raisons des tueries dans le sud-ouest français semblaient à la fois se confondre et ne pas se suffire au moment de lencerclement du jeune suspect de 23 ans, qui avait alors déjà avoué ses crimes et sétait proclamé de la mouvance al-Qaida. Après plus de 30 heures barricadé dans son domicile, le jeune tombait, son choix étant celui de mourir "comme un moujahidine", lors d'échanges de tir avec les policiers.
Mohamed Merah, ce jeune délinquant né à Toulouse, avait couronné une jeunesse de méfaits avec des voyages formateurs en Afghanistan et au Pakistan, après avoir été emporté par la ligne salafiste de son frère, lui-même écroué plus tôt en présence dune cargaison dexplosifs. Condamnant les politiques limitant le port du voile et se disant vouloir venger ses frères palestiniens, Merah avoua sans hésitation avoir été responsable de la mort de trois soldats avant de sen prendre à une école juive, où il tua de sang froid trois élèves et un professeur.
Le jour de son encerclement dans son quartier de la cité rose cette semaine, les familles juives pleuraient leurs victimes en terre sainte alors que le président de la république, qui comme les autres politiciens avait suspendu sa campagne, partageait sa douleur avec les militaires. Cet homme voulait mettre la république à genoux mais la république na pas cédé, déclara Nicolas Sarkozy, lors dun discours émouvant aux funérailles des paras, dorigines antillaise et maghrébine. Ces soldats si prêts à mourir pour la patrie navaient pas connu la mort des champs de bataille mais étaient tombés lors dune exécution terroriste, dit-il.
Victime des violences du GIA dans le passé, la France était transportée à une époque quon aurait souhaité révolue, et alors que certains se félicitaient de lintervention des policiers, des observateurs regrettaient quun homme déjà surveillé par les services de renseignement depuis ses voyages à létranger ait eu loccasion dagir. Et alors que le président faisait appel à lunité nationale nous le devons aux enfants, à notre pays, dautres regrettaient que le discours politique, notamment sur limmigration, se soit tellement corsé lors de la campagne, faisant entre autre mention de la soi-disant droitisation de la campagne Sarkozy, sagissant de thèmes allant de la viande halal aux trop plein de l'immigration.
Le jour de la première tuerie, le 11 mars, anniversaire de lattaque dAtocha, le président allait jusquà menacer de sortir la France de lespace de libre-circulation européen de Schengen. Critiquée par certains, cette approche a cependant profité au président, qui a pu voir sa popularité grimper dans les sondages de manière à rattraper le socialiste François Hollande pour la première fois. Mais les analystes sont formels, la campagne ne saurait éviter limpact de la terreur de Toulouse et de Montauban, et devra de toute évidence changer de ton.
Je crois que ceux qui ne vont pas respecter ce changement de ton seront punis, explique à lAFP Dominique Reynié de lInstitut Fondapol.
Avoiding a repeat of East Africa's famine
As reoccurring as the phenomenon is, it never takes place alone. The four horsemen of the Apocalypse, famine, pestilence, death and war, always terrorize together, like swarms of Janjaweed murderers on horseback attacking Darfurs helpless villages. Such was the case last year in East Africa, where regional conflicts deepened the crisis in Somalia that saw thousands attempt to travel by foot to refugee camps in Kenya to escape war and famine, often only finding death walking along with them. And so it is this year in Western Africa, where aid agencies have sounded the alarm in light of a drought in the Sahel region made worse by conflicts from Libya, where instability reigns in the wake of Arab Spring revolutions, to Mali and, further south, as refugees flee violence in Nigeria. Just dont let the life-costing delays seen in the horn of Af- rica bring the same havoc and misery to the Sahel, humanitarian agencies plead.
Earlier this month Oxfam and other aid groups called attention to the crisis in the region, fearing lack of action could bring about a humanitarian disaster affecting 13 million. Already the crisis is at a critical stage, the organization said as it ap- pealed for $36 million in emergency aid at a time of financial crisis in Western economies slashing aid budgets, finding malnutrition rates in countries such as Chad, Burkina Faso, Niger, Mauritania and Mali - where people fleeing fighting only add to the problems - anywhere from 10 to 15%, leaving over a million children threatened by severe malnutrition.
Failed rains have often brought misery to this parched land from the Atlantic to the Red Sea. The region has been among the hardest hit by climate change, drying out arable lands soon taken over by the desert. Any given year, 12% of Malians are already chroni- cally malnourished, with or without famine. The next rains arent expected until April at the earliest. But in addition to mother natures tyranny this year, populations having to make do with so little already must welcome travelling masses fleeing crisis and instability elsewhere, from a divided Libya where eastern-based rebels are so wary of Tripolis heavy-handed ways they threaten some form of autonomy - while participants in the recent revolution move onwards - to an explosive Nigeria where Boko Haram attacks and sectarian violence have caused thousands to flee across borders.
This year there is one factor on top of the other. It is a cocktail which is putting enormous strain on households across the region, Madeleine Evrard Diakite, an adviser for Oxfam, tells Reuters. As the lean period loomed in the region, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said it expected mil- lions to be hit by food shortages, registering drops of 25-50% in cereal output. Com- pounding the problem is violence in northern Mali, a region Tuaregs who once fought to support Gaddafi have returned to fight for a homeland, sending tens of thousands fleeing to Niger, Burkina Faso and Mauritania. The problem there seems eerily familiar to the one that im- peded aid groups trying to alleviate the suffering in East Africa last year.
The problem we have in northern Mali and surrounding areas is the security backdrop, said Grant Leaity of UNICEF. Last fall such returning Tuaregs founded the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad. Headed by a former colonel of Gaddafis, Col. Mahamed Ag Najim, they have been attacking various towns, and this month the military base of Tessalit, overwhelming the Malian army. It is only a matter of time, some fear, before they lead a common battle with other extremists. This week Malian soldiers mutinied in Bamako and ultimately toppled the regime, protesting their lack of weapons to properly fight the Tuaregs.
When they werent coming back home to wage war, those fleeing Libya were fleeing racism, nearly a quarter million dark-skinned migrant workers returning to Niger, where they triggered the alarm, the government struggling to meet the flood of arrivals in the already impoverished nation. The misery has made the region a fertile ground to recruit for extremist groups, including al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, also known to have benefited from the lawlessness in parts of Libya where they have been able to seize important caches of weapons. The group was still holding as many as 18 Eu- ropeans captive at last count. Adding to the crisis are soar- ing food prices, leaving al- ready struggling families on the edge of destitution.
Food prices here have gone up anywhere from 50 to 100 per cent, in some areas said World Vision Canada president Dave Toycen. When families are already spending 50 to 80 per cent of their budget on food, you can imagine what a spike in the food price amounts to for them. That was in February, nearly one month before the alarm was sounded by aid agencies, and response has been slow. The UNs Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said only $218 million had been raised as of last week, about a fifth of the just over $1 billion needed to cover food needs in the Sahel. Officials hope that if anything, the catastrophe in the Horn of Africa has taught important lessons about the need to react quickly to the crisis, but harbor no illusions.
All signs point to a drought becoming a catastrophe if nothing is done soon. The world cannot allow this to happen. A concerted aid effort is needed to stop tens of thousands dying due to international complacency, said Mamadou Biteye Oxfam Regional Director for West Africa. We witnessed last year the situation spiralling out of control in East Africa as the aid community failed to act swiftly. The worst can be avoided and thousands of lives will be saved if we act now. Its that simple.
While the armies of aid workers head to the new front of famine, some experts warn its about time a new approach was taken to eliminate the need for such ac- tion in the future. "We arent spending enough money on aid and when we do we spend it on the wrong things, stressed Canadian expert and author of Damned Nations, Samantha Nutt, in a recent conference entitled Future of aid event. We dont spend enough money specifically to support the kind of consistent long-term investment that are needed to address the underlying structural deficits, particularly when it comes to education and to income, that plague those at the bottom of the human development index."
Changes need to be made to bring an end to the vicious cycle of perpetual aid, she said, so that the future of aid can one day be its disappearance altogether. "Every time we step up, build up, hand out, dictate and then scale down as we have in Darfur and Afghanistan, as we did 20 years ago in Somalia and soon will again... we compound aids inefficiencies by ex- hausting hope. And what remains in the aftermath of such promises is a sense of betrayal at the local level and aid dependency."
Hunting the warlords
After years of being pursued by international justice for the millions of deaths and countless rapes and other violent acts left in the wake of his army, made in part of child soldiers, the African warlord finally had to answer to judges for his atrocities. No this wasnt Ugandas Joseph Kony, depicted in a video viewed by over 100 million worldwide that brought his existence to the attention of masses only too unfamiliar with him, but Congos Thomas Lubanga Dyilo, the first man convicted by the International Criminal Court in the 10 years it has dispersed charges to strongmen from across the continent, some of whom have since passed away.
This was the case of Moammar Gaddafi, who met a more swift brand of justice after being cornered in Libya in the dying days of the countrys uprising. Others, such as Sudanese strongman Omar Bashir, have not only thumbed their noses at the Hague-based court but have been able to count on the support of fellow African countries refusing to recognize the courts authority, enabling Bashir to travel across the continent unchallenged, including in post-revolutionary Libya last week. Gaddafi and Bashir were the two only sitting presidents charged by the ICC but all of those pursued by the tribunal are from Africa, leading the African Union to charge the court itself with bias and ask its 54 members to refrain from cooperating with it.
Still UN officials were congratulating themselves for the milestone they saw in the Dutch courts first conviction, as chief prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo nears the end of his term, before he is to be replaced by a Guinean. Mr. Lubangas conviction for the war crimes of enlisting and conscripting children under the age of 15 is an important step forward in realizing the international communitys commitment to ensuring that perpetrators of crimes against children in situations of armed conflict are brought to justice, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said.
Testifying against him were some of the very people, child soldiers at the time, he enlisted to rape and murder in volatile eastern Congo in 2003, three years be- fore he turned himself in. It would be another three years until he was eventually tried, but observers applauded what they said was the first case specifically focusing on using child soldiers. Todays verdict will give pause to those around the world who commit the horrific crime of using and abusing children both on and off the battlefield, said Amnesty Internationals Michael Bochenek.
Facing similar charges and sitting right atop the ICCs most wanted list is Kony, and while the Ugandan government reacted negatively to the popular 30-minute video put out by U.S. charity Invisible Children, calling it outdated, the images being at least a decade old and involving a wanted man who has since fled elsewhere, Ocampo welcomed it as bringing publicity both to Konys atrocities, and the ICCs mission. These white kids are spending their time to protect kids of their age in Africa. They are role models, he told the BBC of the video where he himself can be seen saying Stop him and (that will) solve all the problems.
But the video has been slammed by some critics as being simplistic and inaccu- rate, and an attempt by activists to screen it in parts of Uganda targeted by Konys campaigns of terror was cancelled after furious and sometimes violent local reaction. Catching Kony wont be easy even with U.S. military advisers sent to help track him down since he fled Uganda in 2005 to places such as... Sudan, Central African republic - all countries the ICC is focusing on - and Congo, where Konys Lords Resistance Army has launched a fresh series of attacks this year the UN says is making already troubled northeastern Congo a much more violent place.
In the mean time the ICC was finding fresh clues of atrocities, on the west coast of Africa, where investi- gators believe they found the site of a mass grave possibly related to massacres following contested elections in the Ivory Coast last year.
De crise en crise en Afghanistan
Campagne électorale oblige, certains pays clé de la mission de lOtan en Afghanistan préfèrent faire avancer léchéancier prévoyant la fin de leur engagement, semant des craintes dans certains milieux quant à létat de préparation des troupes afghanes. Mais après les incidents des dernières semaines, le départ des troupes internationales, 11 ans après leur intervention, peut paraitre encore bien lointain. Le massacre sanglant dun seul membre armé des forces américaines le dimanche 11 mars est venu davantage envenimer un environnement déjà empoisonné par le scandale des Corans brûlés aux mains de membres insouciants de cette même armée plutôt cet hiver, un incident à lorigine de violences aux portes des bases américaines, et parfois même à lintérieur.
Le fait que la tuerie près de Kandahar, qui a fait 16 victimes dont 7 fillettes dans des villages environnants, ait eu lieu là où les forces canadiennes avaient tant oeuvré pour tisser des liens damitié et bâtir des institutions locales, fait également craindre que tout ne soit à refaire dans cet ancien fief taliban. Je pense quils pourront sen remettre, estimait, optimiste, le major des forces armées Jon Vance qui avait travaillé darrache pied pour bâtir ce soi-disant village modèle" de la mission de développement canadienne. Un seul mauvais acte ne peut pas ternir toute cette réputation. Je le crois."
Dautres sont plus pessimistes, notant la reprise de certains secteurs du pays abandonnés par la force multinationale, depuis passés sous influence talibane. Puis le ras-le-bol généralisé après laffaire des Corans brûlés a seulement donné du vent dans les voiles de ceux qui désirent le départ des forces de lOtan. Parmi eux Nazim Shah, qui selon le journal britannique In- dependent est rentré chez lui le jour de la tuerie pour constater que sa famille entière avait été éliminée. Toute ma famille est morte, rapporte-t-il en pleurs lors dune entrevue téléphonique au journal. Nous vengerons ceux qui ont tué ma famille. Nous nallons pas nous laisser faire.
Le président Barack Obama a immédiatement communiqué sa consternation au président afghan suivant lincident, survenant quelques jours après avoir - lors dune vidéo-conférence - réaffirmé avec Hamid Karzai une volonté de poursuivre leur partenariat malgré les violences dues à laffaire des Corans. Je présente mes condoléances aux familles et aux êtres chers de ceux qui ont perdu la vie et au peuple dAfghanistan qui a enduré trop de souffrance et de violence, dit-il. Cet incident est tragique et consternant et nest en rien représentatif du caractère exceptionnel de nos troupes, ni du respect que les Etats-Unis portent au peuple afghan.
La réaction de Karzai avait été vive, condamnant lincident et souhaitant que la lumière soit faite sur son déroulement, la situation sécuritaire ayant tout juste réussi à se stabiliser après la furie créée par lincinération des manuscrits. Le gouvernement a condamné à maintes reprises des opérations conduites sous le nom de guerre contre la terreur, qui causent des pertes civiles. Mais quand des Afghans sont tués délibérément par des forces américaines, il sagit dun assassinat et dune action impardonnable, déclarait Karzai. Alors que les Talibans rompaient les projets de pourparlers pacifiques, Karzai sommait les soldats de lOtan de quitter les villages du pays, coins où pourtant on avait espéré forger des liens damitié avec la population locale. Mais les membres dune délégation spéciale afghane dans la région ont été plutôt mal accueillis, des militants tuant un soldat lors de leur visite quelques jours après la tragédie.
En attendant le responsable, le Sergeant Robert Bales, faisait face à la justice américaine pour meurtre aux Etats-Unis, sa défence soulignant déjà des précédents de stress traumatique venant du fait quil avait déjà participé à plusieurs mission étrangères, entre autre en Irak, où il avait été blessé. Membres du public comme du gouvernement afghan comptaient porter une attention particulière aux procédures de la justice militaire en cours, refusant de croire aux balivernes psychologiques. Le même weekend un hélicoptère américain avait accidentellement tué plusieurs Afghans lors dune attaque qui avait mal tourné.
Ces événements se produisent alors que le nombre dincidents violents liés aux jeunes recrues afghanes retournant leurs armes contre les forces multinationales sont en croissance, six GIs étant ainsi récemment tombés sous les balles de soldats Afghans. Le dernier incident remet à nouveau en question des relations américano-afghanes souvent tendues. Plus tôt Dana Rohrabacher, président dune sous-commission du Congrès américain, avait créé tout un tollé en exigeant que lon enquête sur «le montant des fonds publics volés et détournés» dont aurait bénéficié Karzaï et sa famille. Le sujet était dautant plus dactualité que le Congrès américain étudie une proposi- tion du président Obama prévoyant de verser 2,5 milliards de dollars pour laide à lAfghanistan en 2012-13.
Pour lancien responsable de lOtan au pays, le turc Hikmet Cetin, les derniers mois seront les plus importants en Afghanistan, qui risque de voir 10 ans de travail de construction sanéantir si les efforts nécessaires ne sont pas fournis. Il sagit de la mission la plus importante de lhistoire de lOtan, dit-il, ajoutant quil fallait à tout prix faire éviter la guerre civile.
Guess what, it's Putin.
Under communism choices were few in the bare Soviet state stores the comrades of the revolution only entered after spending hours in fruitless lineups. This soon changed under the initial freedoms of the chaotic 1990s, first heralding promise as the revolution gave way to a newer, freer, consumer-friendlier Russia. But by the time the decade ended the pains and chaos of transition under Boris Yeltsin became unbearable. Truth is, the lack of choices came back to haunt the first president of the new Russia in his waning years. Having fired or scared away a good many of the few competent men and women to help run the country, he was out of options when came time to find a successor.
Then came the name of Vladimir Putin, a little-known deputy mayor of St Petersburg who had made his way through the bureaucracy in Moscow to lead the country's security ser- vices. That's when he first became prime minister, as the country faced the turmoil of the continuing crisis in the Caucasus he prom- ised to quell in no uncertain terms, helping the "short" little-known man rise to prominence in time for the 2000 presidential election. By then in fact he already occupied the post, Yeltsin having bowed in a shocking year-end address to the nation. The vote was there- fore largely symbolic. Much like last weekend's.
Once in power, Putin proved much less the easily malleable and little educated bureaucrat seen by those who took him under their wing than a czar of the first order, sometimes prone to fits of rage, willing to clamp down on dissent as well as popular revolt. Choices became even fewer from a political standpoint as he closed his grip on a number of independent press outlets, leaving only government mouth- pieces to fill the air. As Russians returned to the polls Sunday, lack of choice again showed the limits the country's citizens had to contend with in the bare store of Russian polity, electoral rallies in the streets not supporting anyone in particular but condemning the man already sure to return to the presidency after a second term as prime minister only agreed to to give some semblance of constitutional respectability.
It was long suspected Dmitri Medvedev would only carry the country as president for the duration of one term to trade places as it came to an end, in his words, to bow to a more popular figure. The two shared the stage Sunday after Putin's whooping first-round win, the usually impassive hard- line shedding tears, some later attributed to the cold wind. We have won. We have gained a clean victory, he said, as a re- sponse to opposition leaders and demonstrators already crying foul on voting irregularities and preparing new rounds of protest. We won. Glory to Russia. The duo paraded in front of a crowd paid to stage a popular celebration, its members telling reporters when asked who they voted for: "Who else?" they remarked.
There's no denying Putin remains popular with many, taking the vote with a 64% even higher than what polls predicted, leaving any semblance of an opposition well behind and divided: old and controversial names, from Communist Gennady Zyuganov (17%) to nationalist firebrand Vladimir Zhirinovsky to new creation of the Kremlin, Sergei Mironov, whose party Just Russia was in fact just created to give an illusion of competition to the omnipotent United Russia. Then there is tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov, perhaps only allowed to run because of his weak support base. But the divisions were obvious, Putin being trounced both in the capital and his hometown of St Petersburg, born to parents who lived the horror of the 900-day siege and barely survived it, while the hinterland welcomed his return to power.
Despite the lack of choices and inevitability of re-election, some of the familiar fear-mongering made an encore like an old campaign slogan for the man who would return as king. First the suspicious timing of the recent announcement assassins intending to kill Putin were captured over a month before, met with the usual cynical derision. Then, better than this little-known enemy, the more familiar exter- nal threat, in the form of the U.S., which officials warned against trying to influence the vote. "The days when Russia could be lectured or preached to are over," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said to Russian media. Finally a more direct message to those who would protest, Putin warning opponents against unsanctioned gatherings.
These have been growing ever since last September when the pieces came into place and Putin announced his return as presidential candidate, promising the post of prime minister to the willingly outgoing Medvedev. Protests held in the fall and over the bitterly cold holidays continued to gather thousands in the streets up until a week before the election, when 20,000 Muscovites held hands along the 16-kilometre ring road, wearing white ribbons symbolizing protest. They vowed more after the results were announced, results called illegitimate by the opposition. About 500 people were arrested in a protest held the next day. Zyuganov said his party refused to recognise the result and called the election "illegitimate, dishonest and untransparent."
Independent monitoring group Golos reported some 3,500 irregularities. Among them Chechnya, a region he had notoriously tamed, seemed to have given Putin no less than 100 % support. International observers concurred Monday that the election had been "skewed" in Putin's favour. Putin later ad- mitted there may have been some irregularities but dismissed their impact. Some observers claimed fraud has become so systematic in the electoral system, officials couldn't prevent it if they wanted to. "The system is on auto-pilot," Opposition Duma member Alexander Romanovich, an opposition member told Time magazine. "They can't stop it even if they wanted to."
But opponents were adamant: We are going through a velvet revolution in peoples minds, said parlia- ment member Vyacheslav Pozgalev. But not one the current regime is anywhere near fearing. This however may be changing with a growing middle class less and less willing to let the Kremlin have its way. A slowing economy will also force Putin to contend with conditions he had no previously experienced as head of state, forcing him to make tough decisions.
"Its a watershed - Russia faces decline and stagnation un- less they really kick-start reforms, and push forward an ambitious reform agenda," Tim Ash of the Royal Bank of Scot- land told Reuters. In the meantime, choice remaining what it is, at least some found comedy to be made out of this choreographed political tragedy. Right in time for the election the Moscow Museum of Erotic Art lampooned a Gogol-inspired piece showing Putin torn between tyr- anny and democracy as he searched his missing manhood. "Putin doesn't compete with anyone but himself so we didn't have to make puppets of other politicians. They are nothing but a decoration," said museum founder Alexander Donskoy.
A loonie idea to begin with?
The first country to collapse from the weight of the 2008 financial crisis still has some distance to go before it can consider itself out of the woods. Sure growth is looking up, some 2.5% expected this year, and unemployment remains relatively under control by western standards, at around 7%, but the IMF warned this month Iceland needs additional measures to meet fiscal targets, fearing revenue projections for the months ahead.
This week the main figure held responsible for the mess, former Prime Minister Geir Haarde, was in court facing trial on charges of negligence over the financial crisis, making him the first world leader to face criminal charges in the matter. One thing that doesn't change, according to many of the island nation's businessmen, is the poor value of the highly volatile krona.
No-one wants our currency," says Arsaell Valfells, a professor with the University of Iceland. "Its as if you were forced to do business in Disney dollars. Dropping the krona is something about 70% of Icelanders agree on, and until recently the idea of adopting the euro held some currency... until the latest eurozone crisis took the appearance of a financial horror movie. So when Icelandic businessmen approached Canada's ambassador to express interest in his seemingly petrol-fuelled currency, it was with a sense of purpose, polls showing greater interest in the loonie than the euro, even the U.S. dollar, and other suggested replacements.
But last week Alan Bones may have been stepping a bit ahead of himself when he suggested the notion of a common currency is one Ottawa was willing to contemplate. Were certainly open to discussing the is- sue if Iceland makes that request, Bones said in an interview with Icelands national broadcaster ahead of a speech to businessmen expected to broach the subject. What we know about the nature of the final agreement depends very much on the expectations of both countries. But in a straight- forward unilateral adopt of the Canadian dollar by Iceland where its clear theres no input into monetary policy then wed be certainly open to discussing the issue.
But this was far from having been considered following consultation with either government, Ottawa quickly stepping in to cancel the planned speech and correct the record. "Once we got wind of (the speech) and it went through the approval channels, we decided it was not an appropriate venue," Joseph Lavoie, the for- eign minister's press secretary rectified. This is an issue for the Icelandic government and people, another spokesman added later in the day. By then the small diplomatic skirmish had made the rounds, Ottawa's embarrassment causing amusement in some quarters, the Washington Post musing on a blog post the "takeover of Iceland" may only have been, in fact, "Step one in Canadas quest for world domination". Gawker went further, with the headline "Iceland To Form Powerful Alliance With Can- ada, Crush Enemies" inspired by the news.
Forfeiting one's currency, which due to the size of the tiny country's economy amounted to in fact abandoning any hope of monetary independence, wouldn't be a first, recent history showing El Salvador and Ecuador adopting the U.S. dollar in the past dozen years, while Kosovo fell back on the euro. But the Canadian dollar has little if any presence beyond its borders, except in some par-friendly border communities in the U.S. and hard currency-starved Latin American countries. While Canada itself once tinkered with the idea of dropping the loonie, for a fleeting moment, in recent decades when it dropped heavily against the U.S. dollar, the search for an international currency by some countries less sure about the greenback and even less so about the euro could make it shine in comparison.
Note that the "funny money" jokes have stopped coming up from the great southern neighbour. "It is not just by chance that they happen to be talking about Canada when the Canadian dollar has gained 60 per cent of value and that raises the standard of living of Canadians substantially," noted Maurice Levi, professor at UBC's Sauder School of Business. But the reasons needn't be so cold and financial, others note. The average person looks at it this way: Canada is a younger version of the U.S. Canada has more natural re- sources than the U.S., its less developed, has more land, lots of water, explained Heidar Gudjonsson, an economist at Icelands largest think tank. And Canada thinks about the Arctic.
Le Sénégal vers un second tour
Après une campagne parfois violente laissant craindre le pire le jour de l'élection présidentielle, les Sénégalais se sont paisiblement présentés aux urnes le 26 février, premier tour d'un concours qui opposera le président Abdoulaye Wade et l'ancien premier ministre Macky Sall au courant du mois. L'octogénaire, qui en a déçu plus d'un en se portant candidat pour un troisième mandat - une décision anticonstitutionnelle selon l'opposition - menait avec environ 35% des suf- frages, contre 26.5% pour Sall, ce dernier portant sur les épaules les espoirs d'une alternance.
Cette semaine Sall a pu compter sur l'appui du chanteur populaire Youssou N'Dour, dont la candidature avait été rejetée, et de l'homme qui avait terminé troisième, Moustapha Niasse: « Nous nous tenons la main pour aller de l'avant (...). Nous ne sommes pas loin du but,» déclarait ce dernier, pour qui « le changement est inéluctable ». Les résultats avaient créé la surprise dans le camp du chef de l'état, qui avait laissé entendre qu'il était en mesure de pouvoir compter sur une "majorité écrasante" lors du premier tour. Mais avant même la publication des premiers chiffres officiels, son camp a dû se rendre à l'évidence qu'il y aurait un second tour.
"Notre pays est resté fidèle à sa réputation et nous avons tous le droit d'être fiers d'avoir relevé le défi du respect du calendrier républicain," déclara Wade. La France de son côté a salué "la vitalité de l'esprit démocratique des Sénégalais". La perspective d'un second tour permettant aux opposants du président de s'unir contre lui semblait réjouir certains Sénégalais regrettant qu'une douzaine de candidats se soient présentés à l'élection, divisant le vote de l'opposition: "J'aurais préféré que toute l'opposition s'aligne sur une seule voix, cela aurait été meilleur pour battre Wade dès le premier tour", déclara Samuel Blaise Joseph Ndiaye sur un site électoral sénégalais depuis Ziguinchor, en Casamance. Le mouvement Y'en a marre appelait entre autre à voter massivement pour "tout sauf Wade."
Les principales tensions lors du scrutin ont été rapportées lorsque Wade a fait l'objet de huées en se présentant dans le quartier historique de Dakar, un événement bien entouré par les forces de l'ordre. Pour plusieurs Sénégalais, dont l'expatriée Fatou D. votant à Washington, le fait que le vote ait eu lieu dans le calme constituait déjà une victoire: "Il s'agissait d'un grand jour pour le Sénégal, inscrit-elle sur le site social twitter. Les élections furent paisibles. Je suis fier de la maturité affichée par mon peuple." Alors que certains pays anciennement modèles de la région, dont la Côte d'Ivoire, ont sombré dans la violence, le Sénégal a su garder les militaires dans les casernes.
Mais Sénégalais comme observateurs étrangers ne cachent plus leur désillusion à propos de Wade. "Il ne peut rien espérer accomplir en terme de buts fondamentaux ou objectifs, estime Witney Schneidman du Brookings Institution. Il ne peut que perdre en restant au pouvoir." Pourquoi risquerait-il de ternir sa réputation de dirigeant démocrate africain? "C'est une question d'égo, de fierté, poursuit Schneidman, cette illusion qu'ils sont les seuls à pouvoir faire avancer leur nation." Comme tant d'autres dirigeants africains. Il craint qu'avec une nouvelle victoire, le dirigeant de 85 ans ne traine le pays "sur la voie de la tyrannie et non celle de la gouvernance démocratique.
Alors que le Sénégal a longtemps fait figure de stabilité dans la région, l'état risque de devenir plus faible si Wade reste au pouvoir". Voilà qui semble rejoindre les propos de N'dour, dont l'interdiction de participer au scrutin a été condamnée par la rue. "Ce qu'il y a d'important pour les Sénégalais c'est le changement, le vrai changement", dit-il à la presse à la sortie d'un bureau de scrutin. Selon lui l'état devait veiller à assurer la crédibilité du scrutin, estimant que les Sénégalais n'accepteraient aucun "coup de force" électoral. "Les Sénégalais ne sont pas dupes, dit-il, accusant le pouvoir d'avoir miné l'économie et propagé 'le désespoir'. Je crois que les Sénégalais n'accepteront pas que ces élections soient entachées. Les gens ne vont pas accepter que cette ruse continue".
L'analyste sénégalais Abdoul Lo soulève cependant un dilemme pour certains membres de l'opposition: s'ils soutiennent Sall pour évincer Wade, ils risquent de mettre fin à leur carrière politique. "Si Macky Sall l'emporte, il va garder son poste probablement pendant 14 ans, dit-il, alors que si Wade l'emporte, ils en ont pour deux, quatre ans au plus avant de se présenter à nouveau."
Encore la piraterie
On la pensait écartée par la présence de cuirassés intimidants, mais la piraterie sort encore et toujours ses dents, plus même qu'avant... dans le golfe de Guinée. En effet alors que les efforts sont nombreux pour décourager la flibusterie au large de la corne de l'Afrique, l'organisation des Nations unies avertit que la menace plane d'autant plus à l'autre bout du continent que le prix grimpant du carburant rend la piraterie attrayante. La question a été soulevée lundi au Conseil de sécurité par le secrétaire général adjoint de l'ONU aux affaires politiques, B. Lynn Pascoe, qui estime que la piraterie à l'ouest du continent " est devenue de plus en plus alarmante alors que les pirates sont devenus de plus en plus violents".
Selon lui l'Organisation maritime internationale a recensé 45 incidents s'étendant sur sept pays en 2010 et 64 à propos de neuf pays l'an dernier, un bond de presque 50%. Dix incidents ont déjà été enregistrés depuis le début de l'année, au Bénin, Congo, en Côte d'Ivoire, au Ghana et au Nigéria. Et selon lui, ce n'est qu'un perçut du phénomène car "tous les incidents ne sont pas systématiquement rapportés." Cet état des faits suit une mission d'évaluation l'an dernier au Bénin, Nigéria, Gabon et en Angola, pays qui selon lui "ont besoin de former un front uni afin de répondre de manière efficace à la menace grandissante de la piraterie le long de leurs côtes".
Dans son rapport annuel de 2010, l'Organisation maritime internationale plaçait cette côte parmi les six principaux foyers de piraterie dans le monde, avec la côte est et le détroit de Malacca. Alors que l'ONU encourage la mise en place de dispositifs de sécurité de la part des pays concernés, seront-ils plus en mesure de fournir des efforts que les pays en crise à l'autre bout du continent, alors que le Nigéria fait face à une crise interne et que les autres pays disposent de bien moins de moyens? Limitées au large du Nigéria à l'origine, les attaques se propagent au long de la côte, dopées par le prix grimpant du carburant, réagissant parfois mal à d'autres crises encore plus distantes, dont celle entourant le régime iranien, responsable d'une importante production de l'or noir.
Voilà qui fait des navires pétroliers une cible de choix, notamment au large des côtes du premier producteur de pétrole d'Afrique. La production de pétrole du Golfe de Guinée doit notamment doubler lors de la prochaine décennie. Le phénomène, qui selon certains profite à quelques dirigeants corrompus, touche presque 7% des ressources pétrolières du Nigéria. Le Bénin voisin n'a pas tardé à être touché par l'accroissement de l'étendue du phénomène, certains dirigeants regrettant son impact sur le prix des assurances. Rob Borthwick, analyste chez Maplecroft, explique à l'AFP que l'aministie de 2009 dans le delta du Niger y est également pour quelquechose. Le prix du carburant, quant à lui, est un facteur évident étant donné la hausse du baril de Brent au dessus de 123$ récemment, tout comme la fin controversée des subvention du carburant au Nigéria, elle seule alimentant une crise sociale au coeur du géant d'Afrique occidentale.
Parmi les incidents récents il faut compter l'attaque d'un navire près de Lagos à la mi-février qui a causé la mort de deux membres de l'équipage. Au problème semblable à celui qu'a connue la corne de l'Afrique on propose une solution similaire, soit la mise en place d'un programme de coopération internationale au large des côtes. D'autres pays de la région, dont le Togo et le Sénégal, craignent que le phénomène ne s'étende chez eux également. Pour l'heure, la piraterie à l'ouest se distingue de celle de la corne d'Afrique en ne visant que les gros car- gos et conteneurs, sans se livrer au kid- napping. Mais certains, qui y voient des liens de plus en plus étroits avec d'autres problèmes comme le trafic humain ou celui de la drogue, pensent que ce n'est malheureusement qu'une question de temps.
Sobering anniversary
Arab Spring anniversaries have made clear any portrait of democracy is far from being dry and remains a messy work in progress in North Africa. While Egyptians marked the anniversary of Hosni Mubaraks departure with strikes and new protests calling for the ruling military to step down, reports marking one year since the beginning of protests in Libya charged the new men in power with accusations befitting Tripolis late tyrant. All the while reminders of continued stirrings brought new protests to Bahrain while the UN General Assembly voted to condemn Syria of human rights violations, a motion introduced by Egypt.
But the non-binding resolution marked a starked contrast with the UN green light on military action against Gaddafis regime a year ago, China joining Russia to block Security Council condemnation of the atrocities committed by Bashar Assads regime. The resolution also called for Assad to step down, but Damascus diplomat said the vote would only end up being a message of support to the extremists and terrorists. There was an air of familiarity in that declaration. A year ago such were the charges of Gaddafis regime, blaming terrorists of stirring trouble in the east of the country, possibly al-Qaida. While a year later little has emerged to substantiate such claims Amnesty International said there was enough to be concerned about as rivals militias continued their bloodletting in the streets of various cities, while it held authorities responsible for at least a dozen torture-killings among detainees.
Nobody is holding these militias responsible, Donatella Rovera, of Am- nesty International, told AP. A report by the International Crisis Group may have put its finger on part of the problem stressing the National Transitional Council so eagerly embraced by the West to bring about a new Libya was yet to be embraced by its citizens. In addition the West has all but ignored real divisions between both western and eastern-based militias and the NTC and the regions.
Meanwhile the al-Qaida threat once waived by the tyrant of Tripoli himself may have become a reality, as a byproduct of the conflict according to reports the regional branch, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, may have jumped on the opportunity to seize weapon chaches abandoned by fleeing Gaddafi loyalists. Chads president Idriss Deby Itno told journalists the group had obtained missiles and small arms from the stockpiles: This is very serious, he said. AQIM is becoming a genuine army, the best equipped in the region. In all international groups have sounded the alarm about both lawlessness in much of the country and the new rulers, whenever they could document the presence of proper undisputed authorities, reporting over 8,000 people, including women and children, imprisoned since.
This too had an air of familiarity, at least in Egypt, where the ruling junta, in the midst of a long electoral process, is held responsible for thousands of arrests since the end of the revolution, bringing new protest movements to much-used Tahrir square. Activists had marked Mubaraks ouster by calling for a strike and a day of civil disobedience, something the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces condemned as the work of plotters undermining stability and threatening to bring chaos and destruction to the country. This week elections officials deepened the frustration by delaying to confirm the final date of the presidential election.
With the final outcome of the Arab Spring still very much in doubt - including a Yemeni presidential election with a single hand-picked candidate - perhaps it was fitting the man credited as being its global godfather faced ouster in his native Maldives, where President Mohamed Nasheed was re- moved at about the same time after just over three years of rule. Back in 2008, the activist had galvanized a sweeping protest movement in the country of over 1,000 islands, toppling the tyranny ruling the Muslim nation. But Nasheed was deposed after years of yet a new series of corruption accusations, new protest and mutiny, and by some accounts a rather comical series of events leading his arrest after trying to evade authorities by ducking in a local convenience store. On a serious note, the incident underlined the difficulties of turning the rhetoric of revolutionary revolts into sound policies.
Tensions with Iran
After months of a war of words against the West, Irans isolation and an overall sense of threat deepened following a series of defiant statements and attacks in various cities targeting Jewish interests, the combination of which some fear could provoke an attack against Tehrans nuclear capabilities in the spring or sooner. This weekend Tehran ratcheted up the pressure further by sending two warships through the Suez Canal and into the Mediterranean, creating such uncertainty the U.S. and Britain urged Israel not to strike Iran, pleading it to give more time for international sanctions to work.
This was just the latest of a string of incidents raising tensions in the region. Last week Israel called the detonation of a bomb being carried by an Iranian man in Bangkok a failed terrorist at- tack against one of its targets, one of three blasts in the city occurring a day after bomb attacks had targeted Israeli embassy staff in India and Georgia. While Tehran denied involvement in any of the incidents, Israel accused it and ally Hezbollah of targeting Jews amid heightened tensions over Irans nuclear programme. The attacks followed general security warnings on Israel interests around the world and a series of mysterious assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists which Tehran blames on Israel. Soon after the blasts Thai police said they were pretty certain who the targets were in Bangkok.
I can tell you that the target was specific and aimed at Israeli diplomatic staff, said police chief Gen. Prewpan Dhamapong, also tying the type of explosive a homemade sticky bomb to devices planted on Israeli diplomatic vehicles in India and Georgia. Doing nothing to lessen tensions, a day after the Thailand incidents Tehran revealed it had used domestically-made nuclear fuel in a reactor for the first time as well as more efficient enrichment centrifuges, television footage showing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inspecting the rods at a nuclear facility. Ahmadinejad then offered to resume talks over the nuclear programme as soon as possible. This week inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency were back in Tehran to try to obtain more transparence from the regime but only saw their access to a sensitive nuclear site prevented.
All this follows weeks of western and Israeli angst over Irans nuclear programme, prompting speculation on a possible Israeli preemptive strike. Such action would drag in the U.S., so far limiting its actions to coordinating additional sanctions against Iran, unless Washington decides to strike first. This week, in a convoluted twist to the story, Tehran announced it reserved the right to plan its own pre-emptive strike ahead of possible offensives targeting its nuclear capabilities. In this years State of the Union address the U.S. president had made plain he would not accept an Iranian re- gime armed with nuclear weapons.
Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal, Barack Obama said. But theres no doubt a conflict with Iran would be messy as well, Gen. Martin Dempsey, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, telling the National Journal that this would be really destabilizing ... I personally believe that we should be in the business of deterring [war] as a first priority.
The war of words and defiant stance meanwhile is permeating rapports between the regime and the outside world at many levels, the oil power sending the price of a barrel of Brent crude jumping over $120 after it did its own economic pre-empting, moving ahead of an European Union oil embargo by unilaterally halting sales to some of its biggest European customers, already struggling to keep the power and heat running in the midst of a bitter cold winter. The news could hardly come at a worst time for the battered Greek economy, the country receiving the majority of these oil exports along with Italy and Spain, two other suffering economies. This week Iran halted oil shipments to Britain and France as well, also battling with the cold spell. Washington meanwhile sent a second aircraft carrier into the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran threatened to shut down earlier, squeezing a sailing route for 20% of the worlds oil supply.
La Grèce dans la tourmente
Le thème de lapocalypse semblait bien illustré dans les photos dun correspondant envoyées le soir où les parlementaires grecs votaient sur les dernières pénibles mesures daustérité prévues afin déviter, dit-on, la catastrophe financière et économique. Pourtant le décor laissait croire quon y était déjà. Pris dun balcon le soir du vote, les clichés montraient un centre-ville assombri par une dense fumée brune issue de plusieurs coins, couvrant le scintillement de la métropole de quatre et demi million dhabitants. Mais lexpression Athènes brûle dépassait le cliché. Les nombreux feux réduisaient en effet plusieurs édifices de la ville millénaire en cendres. Et pourtant on était bien au Nième mois de cette crise sans fin, de ces coupures draconiennes, et de révoltes au cocktail molotov.
Limage de fin du monde suivait une semaine de grève générale. Et comme sil fallait en rajouter, mère nature avait déjà tout fait pour paralyser la société grecque, un hiver glacial sabattant sur lAttique sans merci, comme ailleurs en Europe, comme si le continent entier purgeait la peine de leuro. Mauvais augure en ce début dannée, déjà longue, on ne semblait déjà plus se souvenir de lavant-crise, du sans-crise. La crise, en fait, était rentrée dans les normes, la chute devenant celle de lOlympe, précipitée et impardonnable.
Mais au sein de ce chaos perpétuel, semble-t-il, assez de consensus pour obtenir les deux-tiers de majorité nécessaires afin dadopter les mesures, encore une fois, les plus draconiennes depuis la seconde guerre mondiale. Mais ne le sont-elles pas toutes? Pour obtenir ce soutien, le premier ministre Lucas Papademos, qui remplaçait un prédécesseur chassé par la crise, a dû composer avec un environnement envenimé par les claquages de porte dun camp comme de lautre, le désordre nétant pas, après tout, le monopole de la rue, des élections anticipées était prévues pour le mois davril. Mais le vote aurait suffit à réduire à rien du tout une coalition déjà au bout du rouleau, à la veille dune réunion clé des membres de lUE, si détestés par la rue mais que tentent tant de satisfaire les politiciens de la place Syntagma. Mal nécessaire afin de rassurer les capitales européennes qui menaçaient dexclure la Grèce de la zone euro.
Mais les sacrifices - dont une coupure de 22% du salaire minimum accompagnée dimportantes pertes demploi dans la fonction publique et de vente de biens de létat - sont tels que près de la moitié des Grecs serait favorable à une faillite généralisée, selon un sondage. Malgré tout, les dirigeants de la zone euro décidèrent de reporter à cette semaine le déblocage de fonds durgence - 130 milliards deuros en échange dun engagement de diminuer la dette de 160% du PIB à 120% dici 2020. Nous pouvons affirmer sans exagération quil sagit dun jour historique pour léconomie grecque, déclara Papademos.
Pour les politiciens grecs qui avaient appuyé les mesures draconiennes cependant, le parti socialiste et les néo-démocrates, les intentions de vote étaient à leur plus bas également historique, soit un tiers des votes pour les deux ensemble. Le geste préparatoire des parlementaires grecs avait été très bien reçu dans les autres capitales à lorigine, Angela Merkel disant quil sagissait dun pas très important dans la bonne direction. Les bourses sétaient aussi allumées, prévoyant de meilleures perspectives. Mais la route vers Olympe reste cahoteuse, car on prédit déjà une quatrième année de suite de récession, avec chute de PNB de 7%! La part de dette ne risque-t-elle pas par conséquent daugmenter malgré les efforts?
Le ministre des finances, Evangelos Venizelos, avait déjà averti quil était possible que les dernières mesures draconiennes ne suffisent pas, ajoutant: quand vous devez choisir entre le mauvais et le pire, vous choisissez ce quil y a de mau- vais afin déviter le pire. Alors que les marmottes en Amérique du nord prévoyaient 6 semaines additionnelles dhiver, certains observateurs prévoyaient trois semaines denfer, au moins, en Grèce. Il ny avait quà regarder par la fenêtre, car pendant ce temps les Athéniens tentaient de se remettre de nouvelles nuits démeute, visant banques, cafés Starbucks, cinémas et de nombreux petits commerces incendiés alors que les forces de lordre tentaient de limiter le désordre à coup de gaz lacrymogène.
Le vandalisme, la violence et la destruction nont pas leur place dans un pays démocratique et ne seront pas tolérés, sépoumonait Papademos dans lassemblée. On comptait 80 arrestations en tout, certains faisait face à des accusations de tentative de meurtre.
Selon lAthens News, le compositeur Mikis Theodorakis ne manquait pas de rajouter au drame en déclarant quil allait, lors de son passage sur la Place Syntagma, celle du parlement bien regarder dans les yeux de ceux qui sapprêtent à signer larrêt de mort de la Grèce.
Les communistes, qui avaient fait accrocher une bannière condamnant le gouvernement sur lAcropole, ont également condamné les membres du gouvernement, accusant celui-ci de faire planer la menace dune guerre civile si les mesures nétaient pas acceptées, notant que la télévision détat choisissant ces heures dramatiques pour dif- fuser des documentaires sur la guerre civile.
Mais la crise avait lair de diviser la Grèce du reste de lUE. Lors des manifestations certains Grecs brûlaient le drapeau allemand, et marquaient au graffiti Banque de Berlin à la banques locales, humiliés par les Berlin. Causant un choc, un journal dextrême droite publiait une photo dAngela Merkel portant luniforme nazi. Les opinions ailleurs en Europe séchauffaient également contre létat lhellénique gâté, selon nombre de lettres haineuses reçues à la rédaction, notamment du Athens News, dAllemagne, de Suède et de Hollande, mais également de lecteurs grecs.
De manière générale nous ne recevons pas de lettres de ce genre, notait un rédacteur sur une page de média social du journal qui ne dérougissait pas, les plus débiles en général sont imprimées et posées sur le babillard pour sen moquer... mais lors des dernières semaines il y a eu un torrent considérable de ce genre de lettre dans un langage abrupte. Le dialogue se durcit à Bruxelles également, où certains dirigeants perdent patience avec Athènes, notamment certains Finlandais, Néerlandais et Allemands, selon le Financial Times.
Selon Venizelos, cest net, certains pays veulent tout simplement le départ de la Grèce de la zone euro. Une source communautaire admet au journal: Certains se demandent vraiment, mais alors vraiment, si donner aux Grecs (plus dargent) est la bonne chose à faire sils ne peuvent pas faire fonctionner leur programme.Le ministre des finances allemand Wolfgang Schaeuble souleva toute une polémique en estimant quune banqueroute grecque serait tout à fait gérable. Le président grec Karolos Papoulias ne put se retenir après cette Nième leçon de louest du continent: De quel droit peut-il se permettre dinsulter la Grèce? lui ou les Hollandais, les Finlandais?
Lironie cest qualors que les relations avec le reste du continent se corsent, on semble percevoir un certain rapprochement avec le rival turc de toujours, où quelques hommes daffaires grecs trouvent de plus en plus justifié de sexpatrier. On ne peut pas parler dexode massif, mais lattrait de cet ancien malade de lEurope devient de plus en plus évident, avec son taux de croissance de 9%. Pendant ce temps certaines économies de louest passaient sous la loupe des agences financières, dont la France et même la Grande-Bretagne.
Les Malouines, 30 ans plus tard
Lété dernier le duc de Cambridge, quelques semaines après son mariage, a ravi les foules sur lIle du Prince Edouard en exécutant lamerrissage parfait dun hélicoptère canadien, démonstration de ses qualités de pilote, et du niveau dexcellence professionnelle du futur monarque. Mais lorsque celui-ci a été déployé aux Iles Malouines récemment pour y compléter un autre examen exigeant de son apprentissage royal et militaire, il a ravivé la flamme de la contestation sur le continent tout proche, comme celle qui brûle à Buenos Aires au monument des victimes de la courte guerre de 1982.
Les jours qui ont suivi son arrivée des foules nationalistes aux membres parfois cagoulés sen prenaient aux commerces britanniques dans la capitale de lArgentine, mouvement plutôt limité qui semble cependant avoir porté une certaine influence sur le discours officiel, accusant la Grande-Bretagne de militariser lAtlantique sud, et daller jusquà déployer larme nucléaire aux Malouines par voie de sous-marin. La délégation britannique aux Nations Unies ne pouvait pas trouver assez de qualificatifs pour éviter de réutiliser le terme d"absurde" pour répondre à ces accusations, Londres décrivant la poursuite de manoeuvres militaires, comprenant cuirassé et sous-marin, à titre de routinière depuis plusieurs décennies (et lacte dagression contre les iles des 1982).
Selon les envoyés de la reine, rien na changé lors des derniers mois ou des dernières années depuis 30 ans, sinon le discours du président Cristina de Kirchner, pour qui lenvoi du prince William et du destroyer HMS Dauntless ne constitue rien de moins quune menace à la sécurité internationale. Le continent latino-américain risquait-il dembarquer? En attendant le secrétaire-général des Nations Unies, ayant reçu une plainte officielle de la part du ministre des affaires extérieures argentin, tentait de calmer le jeu et offrant de jouer un rôle de médiateur, se disant préoccupé par les tensions diplomatiques entourant la question.
Pour le premier minstre David Cameron, les habitants de ces iles à 300 miles de la Pantagonie, ont déjà fait leur choix et tant que la population des îles Falkland voudra maintenir ce statut, nous ... défendrons les îles Falkland de manière adéquate. Pourtant les relations sétaient adoucies une décennie après linvasion le 2 avril 1982 des iles que lArgentine accuse la Grande-Bretagne davoir arrachées au 19ème siècle. Mais il y a deux ans à peine les plans de forage au large des iles par des firmes britanniques ont été perçus comme une provocation, Buenos Aires cherchant à isoler les iles, qui depuis manquent parfois de ravitaillement.
LArgentine peut du moins compter sur le soutien de pays voisins dont le Brésil, lUruguay et le Chili, qui ont accepté de fermer leurs ports aux navires faisant flotter le drapeau des Malouines, mais selon Cameron, de manière générale le pays ne tardera pas à découvrir que le soutien à lautodétermination est un élément absolument essentiel de la charte des Nations Unies. La semaine dernière les syndiqués des travailleurs du transport argentins en rajoutaient, boycottant tout navire battant pavillon britannique, alors que lacteur Sean Penn rencontrait de Kirchner pour lui donner son appui, nouvelle qui a plutôt fait rire le rédacteur du Penguin News des Malouines.
La semaine précédente, la publication navait pas lieu de rire après avoir été prise en flagrant délit, codant une photo de la présidente sur son site internet à titre de chienne. Pour lheure, le secrétaire de la défense britannique Philip Hammond tente de baisser le ton, déclarant cette semaine quil ny avait aucun signe présentement de menace militaire crédible concernant les iles. Sil sen présentait toutefois, les forces de sa majesté seraient en mesure de répliquer, à nouveau, de manière catégorique à une telle crise.
A meeting at the top?
As Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper visited with his Chinese counterparts in Beijing this week there was a sense there was something of a meeting at the top taking place, as the emerging economic giant gathered with the would-be oil superpower. Despite the great distance separating them theres a sense they cant live without each other in the long term.
As Chinas vice-premier, Li Keqiang, pointed out during the meetings Canada is one of the countries with a deep energy and resource reserve. China meanwhile is a large and stable market," which seeks "more large-scale cooperation" on petroleum and mineral imports." Days earlier China's ambassador to Canada had called relations "a stable and win-win partnership in the long run in the field of resources.
The geographic gap between the two is as wide as the Pacific but Canada plans to do everything, including moving mountains (or at least drilling holes right through them) to bring its re- sources closer to China, by drawing a 1,177-kilometre Northern Gateway pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast, where oil should be shipped to Asian markets. The stakes are high, as Chinese companies have already invested more than $16 billion in Canadian energy in recent years. It isnt the only major project of the sort being planned to move what is expected to be ever growing output from the oilsands (from 1.5 million barrels to 3.7 million in 2025), the third largest reserves of oil on the planet.
Until recently the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta to Texas was top of mind, the $7 billion 2,673-kilometre pipeline projecting to move 830,000 barrels of oil per day, but plans were put on hold when it be- came a hot topic of the U.S. election. Anxious not to lose its leftist base rich with environmentalists, the Obama ad- ministration decided to respond to Republican pres- sure to rule on the pipeline by denying it the permit it needed. But by allowing TransCanada to resubmit its planned path, the matter may only have been deferred conveniently until after the election.
Even before the U.S. decision came down this January, Canada had served notice it was looking to diversify its exports markets, especially in the energy sector, choosing a Hawaii APEC gathering last fall to discuss with Chinese leadership about energy and push for member- ship in the trans-Pacific Partnership. As a reminder of this goal during a speech to business leaders in China Harper said: "We are en emerging energy superpower. We have an abundant supplies of virtually every form of energy. And you know, we want to sell our energy to people who want to buy our energy, but said Can- ada should still reserve the right to raise human rights to China while deepening trade ties.
In a TV interview before the trip Harper had made his thoughts more plain about Keystone: I think whats happened around the Keystone is a wake-up call, the degree to which we are dependent or possibly held hostage to decisions in the United States, and especially decisions that may be made for very bad political reasons. To observers the message wasn't that subtle. Its a not a subtle warning. Its an open warning, says Wenran Jiang, energy expert at the University of Alberta. China has become leverage.
Closer Canadian ties with China have also made headlines in the U.S. campaign, where South Carolina winner Newt Gingrich noted the conservative and pro-American prime minister has said hes going cut a deal with the Chinese ... Well get none of the jobs, none of the energy, none of the opportunity, adding: An American president who can create a Chinese-Canadian partnership is truly a danger to this country.
While an alternative that would at least double the current, single, recipient of Canadian oil, the Northern Gateway pipeline however isnt free from its own set of obstacles, also in the form of an environmental assessment, as a recent gathering in the city that would host its coast terminal was indicating. Several hundred people gathered to voice their concerns at hearings on the pipeline in Kitimat, where plans are being laid for as many as over 200 tankers a year, a risk, environmentalists say, to the coasts pristine waters and ecosystems, and something aboriginal groups along the route agree, would impact their communities.
Federal officials, Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver in particular, have accused outside money of playing a part in the opposition, claim- ing that environmental and other radical groups, some U.S.-based, are trying to block the project. But as Americans in favour of the U.S. pipeline in areas where it would cross, some communities along the way are however very sensi- tive to the economic arguments of the multi-billion dollar projects, promising jobs and plenty of petrodollars. The company planning the pipeline, Enbridge, says about 40 percent of First Nation communities living along the route entered into a partnership with Enbridge, giving them a 10% ownership of the pipeline. But only one of dozens of communities along the route said pub- licly it backed the deal, before anger by others forced it to back down.
This weekend Hartley Bay First Nation was behind a demonstration which brought 600 people out against the pipeline in Prince Rupert, B.C. Overall, a recent poll of Canadians say they are overwhelmingly in favour of developing the countrys oil industry as a means to bolster the economy and say Canada should diversify its energy exports. But for the same reasons already mentioned, they are divided on Keystone, weighing economic benefits and environmental concerns.
And whats bad for the pipeline isnt necessarily bad so far for some economies. Rail companies stood to benefit from the delay of Keystone, looking forward to more shipments of crude, while the viability of a B.C. refinery is at risk due to intense competition from so-called super refineries in Asia, which would be fed by the pipelines. Then again oilsands access to Asian markets would up the oil's value by some estimates, a local politician pointing out current prices were being discounted because the market is confined only to North America.
But not everyone thinks closer Canada-China relations will have much impact on the U.S. I dont think U.S. policymakers view Chinas investment in the Canadian oil sands as a threat, David Goldwyn, a former energy official in the Obama adminis- tration, told AP, pointing out Alberta had enough oil for both countries and more. In the short term it provides additional investment to increase Canadian supply; thats a good thing. Should that option fail too, others are avail- able. Even a pipeline heading East.
Should we fear the worst?
Is what some feared would happen all along in store for Afghanistan and Iraq? As France and the U.S. indicated they would move up their military drawdowns in Afghanistan one year early, in 2013, a leaked NATO report suggested the Taliban, backed by Pakistans spy agency, not only survived the alliances military intervention in the country but were getting ready to once again take over as the ISAF mission comes to and end.
This weekend a UN agency reported that the number of civilians killed and injured in the country has risen for the fifth year in a row, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan documenting 3,021 civilian deaths in 2011 compared with 2,790 in 2010 and 2,412 in 2009. The departure of U.S. troops from Iraq meanwhile was immediately greeted by a series of devastating car bombs into the new year that killed dozens and threatened to shake the already weak govern- ment in Baghdad. Just last week a bomb targeted an Iraqi MPs convoy in Baghdad, wounding five civilians nearby. Meanwhile authorities have issued an arrest warrant for Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, sparking a tremendous political crisis. Could situations in both countries ultimately revert to the way they were before the military interventions of the last decade?
Coming after France indicated it would end its military training mission in Afghanistan early after four of its troops were killed by a rogue Afghan soldier, and while the Taleban prepare to open a Qatar office to help start peace talks with the U.S., news Washington was ending its combat role early added concerns to analysts fearing the largely lawless Asian country could once again fall into the wrong hands. Some have slammed the decision as a political one, in an electoral year the administration fears the unpopularity of the war may upset chances for re-election.
U.S. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said he hoped GIs would take on more of a training role beyond 2013, one currently undertaken by Canada and other nations, at a time the Pentagon is reporting Afghan soldiers are increasingly turning their weapons against their western trainers, that recent case having taken lives among French troops. Three-quarters of some 42 insider attacks have largely taken place in the last few years, U.S. officials say. Such numbers, and the announcement of an early U.S. drawdown from its 130,000-strong troop presence in the country, as the U.S. military is gearing for massive cuts in numbers and smaller defence budgets overall, are causing concern as the NATO report adds to fears of continuing collusion between the Taleban and Pakistans secret services, analysis suggesting the group so swiftly turfed from power after the Sept. 11 attacks was staying low to make a comeback.
Pakistans foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar denied the NATO report, leaked to the BBC, calling the allegations old wine in an even older bottle. But to some the report confirms rumours growing since Osama bin Laden was killed in a compound near Pakistans main military academy, near Islamabad. The report says Pakistans manipulation of the Taleban senior leadership continues unabatedly and adds the Pakistani leadership is aware of the whereabouts of senior Taleban leaders. Senior Taleban representatives, such as Nasiruddin Haqqani, main- tain residences in the immedi- ate vicinity of ISI headquarters in Islamabad, it said, according to the BBC. It warns there is growing interest, even amid the government in Kabul, to join the Taleban, and stresses that Afghan civilians frequently prefer Taleban governance over the Afghan government, usually as a result of governmentcorruption.
Analysts fear the future of the country may ultimately look like the regions that have al- ready been abandoned by for- eign troops, where the Afghan national army and police have taken over and offered little re- sistance to growing Taleban influence in the sector. While Khar denies any hidden agenda in neighbouring Afghanistan, observers note Islamabads alliance with NATO and the U.S., already shakened by the covert operation to kill bin Laden on Pakistani soil, worsened in November when air strikes killed 24 Pakistani soldiers.
This week a U.S. army officer came under fire for accusing Washington of painting a misleading portrait of progress in the country. "What I saw bore no resemblance to rosy official statements," Lt-Col. Daniel Da- vis wrote in the Armed Forces Journal. "Instead I witnessed the absence of success on virtu- ally every level."
Duvalier s'en tire, presque
Certes on savait que la reconstruction allait être longue et pénible pour ladministration Martelly, mais après presque un an ne pouvait-on pas au moins marquer quelques points au niveau juridique? Cest lavis de certains observateurs déçus, et dans le cas de lONU préoccupé, que lancien président despote Jean-Claude Duvalier soit seulement traduit en justice pour détournement de fonds et non pas pour les sérieuses violations des droits de lhomme de son régime.
Pendant un an, depuis son arrivée subite à la veille de la présidentielle haïtienne, Bébé Doc faisait lobjet dune enquête, menée par le juge dinstruction Carves Jean, mais celui-ci en a découragé plus dun concluant quil était trop tard pour traduire en justice lancien chef détat pour abus commis sous sa présidence, entre 1971 et 1986, estimant le délai de prescription échu. Responsable de la torture et la mort dopposants politiques sous le climat de terreur des Tonton Macoutes, le régime a outré la population au point de se révolter contre le président à vie, dont le règne succédait à celui de son père.
Seule consolation, Jean recommande que Duvalier soit jugé pour corruption, ce qui na ni satisfait les instances onusiennes, ni les grands bailleurs de fonds de lactuelle présidence. "De très graves violations des droits de lhomme, y compris de torture, de viol, et des exécutions extrajudiciaires ont été largement documentées par des organisations internationales et haïtiennes des droits de lhomme sous le régime de Duvalier, déclarait le porte-pa- role du Haut-Commissariat des Nations unies aux droits de lhomme, Rupert Colville. En Haïti, notre compréhension est quen vertu de la Constitution, le droit international a préséance, alors il semble bizarre que des accusations de na- ture financières apparaissent possibles, mais pas celles relatives à des crimes contre lhumanité ».
Même son de cloche côté Amnistie internationale, qui avait lautomne dernier présenté un rapport appelant les autorités haïtiennes à juger le sexagénaire pour violations de droits de lhomme. « La conclusion de la parodie denquête menée sur Jean-Claude Duvalier est une honte et ne fait que renforcer limpunité en Haïti. Aucun effort sérieux na été fourni pour établir la vérité, malgré les multiples plaintes et les nombreux éléments relatifs aux crimes commis et aux victimes», a souligné Javier Zúñiga, conseiller spécial dAmnistie qui avait enquêté sur les crimes de Duvalier . Selon lorganisation aucun délai de prescription ne peut être appliqué aux crimes contre lhumanité.
Déception également à Ottawa, actif sur le dossier haitien depuis le tremblement de terre et qui a fait de cette moitié dile une destination importante de son aide étrangère. «Le Canada croit que M. Duvalier doit faire face à la justice pour les nombreux cas dabus recensés pendant son règne, y compris contre les droits de lhomme, indiquait un porte-parole des Affaires étrangères Rick Roth. Le Canada appuie entièrement les ef- forts dHaïti pour traduire en justice les responsables des crimes du passé.»
Ce serait grâce aux fonds publics haïtiens que Duvalier menait une paisible existence à létranger depuis son exil il y a un quart de siècle, mais son avocat Reynolds Georges estime toute accusation de corruption sans fondement. A part avoir fait réunir certains de ses ancien supporters lors de son arrivée, Duvalier sest notamment attiré les critiques depuis ce retour choc au pays en janvier 2011, et les plaintes nont pas tardé, mobilisant une vingtaine de ses présumées victimes. Mais là encore laffaire piétine dans les tribunaux, décourageant les observateurs internationaux presque un an après le début du régime Martelly qui devait tellement secouer les choses.
Anxieux de mettre fin au conflit interne qui persiste sur la question de ces terribles anciens régimes, Martelly a du moins précisé récemment quil nétait pas question de pardonner Duvalier non plus, séloignant de propos soulevant la question lors du sommet de Davos. Martelly avait cependant avoué quil tenait peu à un procès.
New promising developments in Burma
Could there be something genuine to the seemingly sweeping reforms underway in Burma? While North Korea moved no further away from pariah status during its recent transition, once shunned Burmas transformations have won the approval of the U.S. and other Western countries who announced they would resume full diplomatic relations with Myanmar.
This week supporters mobbed pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi as she registered to run in a byelection this spring. Just days before Norway joined other countries announcing it would end its investment ban targeting the country as a U.S. senator who regularly introduced legislation panning the country, Mitch McConnell, visited with Aung San Suu Kyi, a once unthinkable gathering, and praised government reforms on everything from greater political and Internet freedoms to allowing the organization of labour unions.
There is, however, as everyone knows, much left to be done, he said, adding the U.S. sought an easing of tensions with eth- nic insurgent groups as well a free and fair elections when they take place April 1. A number of countries are waiting for the vote to take place to determine whether more openings can be granted to what remains a junta-backed regime, and while critics maintain that trickery by the authorities may be involved, the signs have been encouraging after the release of political prisoners and announcement of a ceasefire agreement in the longrunning ethnic clash with Karen rebels.
Two weeks into the new year the government released 651 prisoners under a sweeping amnesty, among them many prominent political dissidents who promptly endorsed Aung San Suu Kyi, criticized by some as becom- ing too cosy with the leadership, especially president Thein Sein.
The ceasefire agreement with the Karens, one of a number of militant groups opposing the government, was also significant considering the clash has been ongoing since independence in 1948. But Karen National Union leader David Htaw reminded the two parties remained far from a lasting peaceful settlement, finding talks only go so far. What matters are practical steps taken on the ground.
In the mean time both sides agreed to open communication channels and allow passage through contested regions. The government has been busy obtain- ing ceasefires from 17 other rebel groups since 1989, a month ago with the Shan State Army-South ethnic group.
This is the first stage, in which we signed an agreement at state level," Railway Minister Aung Min told the BBC. "This allows both sides to open liaison offices and for them to travel freely without carrying arms. We also agreed (to a) time and place for next stage peace talks at national level."
A reminder of the disruption caused by decades of conflict can be found across the border into Thailand, where thousands of refugees live in camps. But for some, the changes, most notably Aung San Suu Kyis taking part in elections, are reason enough to hope again.
For the first time in decades, people believe change is on the way, Susanne Kempel, a consultant to international organizations tells the Washington Post. Of course, there are fears it could all be taken away again, but theres a sense that, this time, change is real. In an online post, militant Ninghkrin Magam pointed out the many shortcomings.
I hope that The Norwegians are aware of ongoing ethnic cleansing in Kachin State, Magam wrote. They should raise their con- cern on the situation of sev- enty thousands internationally displaced persons living under extreme condition before rushing for business.
Indeed human rights groups note that the violence in the north of the country may in fact have esca- lated as the reforms were moving forward. To some this indicates ex-general Thien Sein's ability to carry out re- forms, especially as they in- volve the military, has its limits.
Going beyond devolution
Hold a referendum on independence if you must, but hold it sooner rather than later and let there be a clear question, London told Scottish officials last week as Westminster said it would allow the northern half of the island to hold a vote to split from Great Britain. Scottish nationalists say they would retain the Queen as head of state, oddly at a time some including Jamaica are considering no longer bowing to the throne, and possibly the strong British pound as currency, but would rather wait until conditions are ripe to enjoy the winning conditions.
Support for separatism, often sitting at around 30% - obviously the similarities are striking -, has risen in the last years, and could reach an expected peak two years from now when Scotland hosts the Commonwealth Games and marks the 700th anniversary of an important battle it won against Britain.
The date for the referendum has to be the autumn of 2014. Thats because this is the biggest decision that Scotland has made for 300 years, Scottish first minister Alex Salmond said recently. If you are going to do things properly and have the debate in the way it must be had then that is the date that we are going to move towards.
Salmond warned the U.K. that as long as it was willing to allow the vote to take place, something previously not possible under the devolution agreement of 1997 that gave it a parliament with autonomy over education, health and justice, it had to refrain from trying to call the shots, leaving the referen- dum to be made in Scotland.
What Scotland objects to is all the strings they (the UK government) are trying to attach. They are trying to run a referendum by proxy, he said. We are not going to be stampeded and dra- gooned by a Tory prime minister in London.
British Prime Minister David Cameron said the Scots must get on with the plebiscite and get it out of the way, making any delay of holding such a vote damaging to the economy due to the uncertainty it causes over one of Europes major economies, an area he and opposition parties agree on. Oddly if Scotland is so willing to go forward on its own it is precisely because it accuses Britain of holding it back economically, touting independence as a means to obtain greater control over precious oil and natural gas reserves in the North Sea.
It also has shown an interest in Arctic affairs because its territory would see a boon from increased shipping routes, blaming Britain for being too slow to react to the promising changes it sees taking place at the top of the world. Melting sea ice making more shipping routes available longer prom- ises to boost a trade strategy that thus far has been too focused on the U.K. and not enough of Scotlands other neighbours, MP and Scottish National Party member Angus Robertson argued last year in a piece in the Scotsman, calling for Scotland to embrace its Nordic identity.
The changes will bering significant economic opportunities and geo-strategic challenges which must be tackled, Robertson wrote. For centuries, inde- pendent Scot- land had close diplomatic and trading relations with our re- gional neigh- bours, he added. The advent of political union in 1707 di- verted domestic attention to the development of the British Em- pire to the detriment of our links with Scotlands immediate region.
Among those neighbours, Norway, a small but prosperous country due to its hydrocarbon finds, has become a model for the nationalists. I think that jobs, investment and growth in Scotland are much more important than waiting for the anniversary of a medieval battle as the key that determines your timing for a referendum, said Danny Alexander, Britains deputy treasury chief who represents a Scottish district.
But as its Canadian counterpart, London wants a clear question, and clear yes or no choices, not a third devolution max option touted by the nationalists.
What I think the Scottish people deserve is a fair, clear and decisive question, Cameron said. And he and others are rejecting that a special commission be set up to conduct such a vote, insisting the Electoral commission play that role. This is not about the man- dates of Scotlands two governments, or who calls the shots. It is about empowering the people of Scotland to participate in a le- gal referendum, Scottish secretary Michael Moore said. That means that the UK gov- ernment is willing to give the Scottish Parliament the powers to hold a referendum which they otherwise cannot do legally.
Nouvelles violences au Nigéria
Les paroissiens distribuaient, comme la tradition locale le veut, une poudre blanche symbolisant la purification, quand le drame est survenu. Une déflagration importante emporta la vie de 44 membres de la congrégation et laissa lEglise Catholique de Ste Therese dans les décombres. Comme lannée précédente, les insurgés avaient agi en période forte des célébrations de Noel pour faire le maximum de victimes, dont le compte dépassait cette année avec ce seul attentat les 32 de lan dernier lors dattaques à la bombe similaires au Nigéria. Et lorsque les hommes armés ne pouvaient pas agir contre la paroisse elle-même parce quelle est défendue par des gardes armés, comme dans le cas de léglise baptiste de la Victoire de Maiduguri, dans le nord musulman du pays, ils sen prenaient aux paroissiens chez eux, où ils étaient sans défense.
Ayant recensé plus de 80 victimes depuis les fêtes de Noel après les incidents, les groupes chrétiens du pays sonnaient lalarme au milieu du mois, implorant les autorités de leur porter secours, et craignant un véritable nettoyage ethnique. Le mot était-il trop fort? Ayo Oritsejafor, dirigeant de lassociation chrétienne du Nigéria, ny voyait quun rappel des signes précurseurs de la guerre civile des années 60.
Voilà qui nous rappelle la génèse de la guerre civile qui a eu lieu au Nigéria, dit-il faisant référence au conflit de 1967-70 qui fit notamment plus dun million de morts parmi les Ibos, population largement chrétienne du nord. Une semaine plus tôt, ce sont en effet des membres de ce groupe qui tombaient à Mubi, 17 en tout, face aux balles dartilleurs ve- nus créer un nouveau bain de sang au site de funérailles dun Ibo tué la veille. Depuis les procédures pour pénétrer dans certaines églises chrétiennes des grands centres, dont Abuja et Lagos, prennent des apparences de zone aéroportuaire, avec des détecteurs de métal et fouilles physiques.
Les tensions religieuses viennent sajouter à celles créées par les mouvements de grève suite à la fin des subventions de létat en matière de pétrole, faisant grimper les prix locaux de carburant. Cette semaine les syndicats ont suspendu leurs projets de grève générale après une concession du pouvoir, baissant le prix du carburant de 30%. Mais certains sont tout de même descendus dans les rues à Lagos, insatisfaits du geste.
Pendant ce temps les violences se poursuivaient dans le nord, encore à Maiduguri cette semaine, lorsque les tirs de membres présumés du groupe militant Boko Haram contre un poste de contrôle faisaient six victimes, entrainant le déploiement de larmée. Lassaut suivant aurait fait quatre victimes membres du groupe, mais larmée a du coup été accusée de tirer contre des civils lors de lopération.
Pour certains observateurs, les deux crises, militante et pétrolière, ne sont pas si indépendantes lune de lautre, jugeant la misère généralisée, notamment due aux nombreux cas de corruption et de mauvaise gestion du gouvernement, responsables des diverses agitations à travers le pays. Le Nigéria se retrouve à un moment important de son histoire, explique au magazine Time Antony Goldman de PM Consulting, lérosion de létat de droit et léchec de ladministration publique mènent à un statu quo insoutenable.
Les plus récentes violences suivaient un ultimatum de Boko Haram, groupe religieux né à Maiduguri il y a 15 ans et quon avait jadis déclaré décimé mais dont les attaques accumulent les victimes depuis plus dun an. Le groupe avait exigé le départ des Chrétiens dans les 72 heures du nord musulman, fief de ces talibans version locale. Il avait revendiqué les précédents attentats, plus dune demi-douzaine en tout, dassauts armés aux attentats à la bombe.
Le dirigeant du groupe, Abubakar Shekau, déclarait la semaine dernière que les attaques contre les Chrétiens étaient justifiables en tant que gestes de revanche. Il estime le pouvoir impuissant dagir contre son organisation. Alors que les autorités hésitent de croire à la survie du groupe, et prétendent que des brigands locaux se servent du nom pour semer la terreur, dautres lestiment dautant plus actif quil jouirait de liens avec la mouvance Al-Qaida du Maghreb islamiste.
Selon le diplomate canadien Robert Fowler, kidnappé pendant plusieurs mois par ce chapitre dal-Qaida, le groupe ne vise rien de moins que la chute de gouvernement à travers lAfrique pour y créer un califat. Une relation Boko Haram-al-Qaida serait selon lui une entente tout à fait naturelle, dit-il à un journal britannique. Et le monde devrait se méfier, parce que le Nigéria est un pays immense, et sil éclate, il emportera une grande partie de lAfrique de louest avec lui.
Une destabilisation a déjà été provoquée puisque plusieurs ont pris la route pour fuir la région. Dautant plus que certains, dont Oritsejafor, ne prétendent plus vouloir tendre lautre joue, voyant dans les actes du groupe une déclaration de guerre contre les Chrétiens, menaçant de répliquer de la manière appropriée si les autorités nintervenaient pas.
Un peu débordé, le président Goodluck Jonathan a du coup déclaré létat durgence dans plusieurs régions du nord, dont Maiduguri, y déployant l'armée. Mais la zone exclut le lieu dautres attaques, notamment Mubi mais aussi Yola et Gombe. Lui-même Chrétien, Jonathan fit un surprenant aveu suite aux attentats, disant y avoir des sympathisants du groupe au sein de son gouvernement.
Certains font partie de lexécutif, dautres de la branche législative du gouvernement, alors que dautres encore font même partie du judiciaire, dit-il. Certains font également partie des forces armées et des agences de sécurité, ajouta-t-il, estimant la crise pire encore que la guerre civile que nous avons connue. Durant la guerre civile, nous savions, nous pouvions dire doù lennemi provenait... mais aujourdhui cest plus compliqué. Dautant plus que les soupçons de complicité ont redoublé cette semaine après que lhomme accusé davoir planté la bombe le jour de Noel ait réussi à séchapper.
Kabiru Sokoto avait été arrêté samedi dernier sur une propriété appartenant au gouverneur de létat de Borno et serait parvenu à se défaire des policiers lescortant lors dun transfert. Le commissaire de police a été limogé pour négligence peu après.
Pas au bout de ses peines, le gouvernement doit également faire face à la reprise déclats entre deux groupes dont on pensait la dispute sur la propriété de certaines terres réglée. Des violences ont opposé les clans Ezza aux Ezilos dans létat dEbonyi, apparemment sans lien aux états durgence ailleurs.
On pensait la dispute entre les deux communautés, qui a commencé en 2008, réglée, jusquà la dernière déflagration, déclarait un membre du gouvernement. Voilà une déclaration que lon entend trop souvent à travers le pays.
La semaine dernière cest le sud et les craintes de représailles qui faisaient la une, des attaquants incendiant une mosquée de Benin City, où des violences auraient fait cinq victimes en plus de faire déplacer quelques 10000 personnes selon la Croix Rouge.